Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Talleyrand]

This election is due on or before June 20, but considering the 2012 election was held on March 24, there's a good chance it'll be held earlier than that.

Anyway, the newspoll is out.

TPP
LNP- 50% (-4)
Labor- 50% (+4)

Primary
LNP- 37% (-2)
Labor- 36% (+4)
Greens- 10% (no change)
Others- 17% (-2)

Campbell Newman Favorability
Approval- 38% (+3)
Disapproval- 51% (-3)

Annastacia Palaszczuk Favorability
Approval- 38% (+2)
Disapproval- 34% (-2)

Preferred Premier
Newman- 44% (+3)
Palaszczuk- 35% (no change)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/03/newspoll-50-50-in-queensland/

[lilTommy]

What kind of seat count would the produce? The trend has to be good for the ALP who have broken even at this point.
With Campbell Newman having higher approval ratings would this favour LNP returning to government?
Is Katter's Australian Party with 3 seats already that they will gain anymore? possibly picking up old National vote?

[Talleyrand]

What kind of seat count would the produce? The trend has to be good for the ALP who have broken even at this point.
With Campbell Newman having higher approval ratings would this favour LNP returning to government?
Is Katter's Australian Party with 3 seats already that they will gain anymore? possibly picking up old National vote?

I think that the LNP majority is so big that a swing of this size would allow them to keep a workable majority (around 50 seats perhaps?), accounting for local factors and sophomore surge, although on a purely uniform change it would create a Labor majority.

The LNP is likely to be returned simply because they have such a seat cushion from their 2012 election, but Newman is still very unpopular (I made a mistake initially by posting the SA Premier's ratings, which are +4, while Newman's are actually -13) and is a drag if anything. There is an strong chance he will lose his own seat of Ashgrove, which he holds on a 5.7% margin. Former MP Kate Jones is running again, and she's very popular; Newman only took her out last time around because of the huge anti-Labor wave.

KAP has been a big flop since the 2012 election. They almost lost Bob Katter's federal seat in Kennedy, and were pretty much irrelevant everywhere else. The minor party which was much hyped to make a breakthrough was the PUP, and they've declined in recent months, with both their MPs becoming independents again.

[Barnes]

As far as dates go, electorates become increasingly angry the longer politicians put off the "verdict of the people."  The LNP seems to be insisting that they're under no obligation to hold the election before June (which is true, of course), but if they continue to hold that line it'll begin to look increasingly desperate to many voters.

[BaconBacon96]

The LNP will be able to hold government as long as the swing against them isn't more than 29 seats. Which is a good position to start off in. Newman will probably lose his seat though, Ashgrove was never a really safe choice.

The PUP, which at one point could have easily gained several seats, will struggle to gain a seat although they might be able to pick up a rural seat somewhere. The KAP should mostly collapse in support but they might be able to hold their two seats in the Gulf Country, considering that is their support base.

[morgieb]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

[MaxQue]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

We're talking about Queensland. They won't elect a Premier with a name like that.

[Smid]

Note, there are maps in the Gallery.

[lilTommy]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

We're talking about Queensland. They won't elect a Premier with a name like that.

Ouch, Labor's leader is Polish born, not a "new" immigrant? would that really be an issue?... but having said that, is/was Queensland not the home of Hanson and One Nation?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newman expected to call the election a LOT sooner than expected, namely, tomorrow. 31 January and 7 Feb being floated as the possible dates.

Looks to me that the LNP want to try to catch the ALP unawares and have as short a campaign as possible. I will say that calling an election before Australia Day goes against one of the rules of electoral politics "don't fu** with people's holidays"

I think 31 Jan is more likely as it would get it over and done with and before Fed parliament sits in the first week of Feb.

[Knives]

If anything is to be learnt from the VIC campaign it is that starting a campaign early is better than a late push. So, I'd expect the LNP have been planning this for quite some time if it really is soon and are hoping to catch Labor out.

[Vega]

If Palaszczuk were to become Premier (which, I know, is extremely unlikely), would she be the first one of Polish decent?

[lilTommy]

If anything is to be learnt from the VIC campaign it is that starting a campaign early is better than a late push. So, I'd expect the LNP have been planning this for quite some time if it really is soon and are hoping to catch Labor out.

Is Labor likely to be caught that off guard? they seem to have already nominated most candidates which would have been one the worse cases with an early election (not having a candidate puts you weeks behind)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If anything is to be learnt from the VIC campaign it is that starting a campaign early is better than a late push. So, I'd expect the LNP have been planning this for quite some time if it really is soon and are hoping to catch Labor out.

Is Labor likely to be caught that off guard? they seem to have already nominated most candidates which would have been one the worse cases with an early election (not having a candidate puts you weeks behind)

Unless they were monumentally stupid, I think the ALP has been ready since late last year. But I do think an election this early in the year, probably has caught them off guard. A lot of the strategists and main office people will still be on leave ... well, not any more.

[Barnes]

Didn't really see this coming, but it'll be fun to have this campaign to follow if this goes through.

Yeah, Labor should have everything ready to go for an election in 2015 whenever it was called.

[Barnes]

The date has been confirmed for 31 January: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-to-be-held-on-january-31-20150105-12iduw.html

Newman will meet with the Acting Governor mid-Tuesday, and make an official announcement afterwards.

[Talleyrand]

Any "early" predictions?

It seems certain the LNP will hold government; the real question will be how much Labor improves from their 2012 defeat.

[Barnes]

Per the article in The Brisbane Times:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As an early guess, I think the LNP will be returned with a majority between 10 to 15; I'm almost certain that Newman in a goner in Ashgrove.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any "early" predictions?

It seems certain the LNP will hold government; the real question will be how much Labor improves from their 2012 defeat.

I think the LNP will win the TPP 52-48 and probably lose about 20-25 seats. That would still give the LNP a decent majority (about 15-20), but a massive swing nonetheless. Newman will lose Ashgrove.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'll go out on a limb and say the ALP wins the TPP narrowly (~51-49) and the majority will go only a few seats either way. Considering what a big hole the ALP is in, I'd say the LNP would likely hang on in this scenario (similar to the federal election in 1998).

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Will post more detailed predictions later, can't believe the QLD election's this early in the year!

I'm going with the consensus of large swing to the ALP, with the LNP narrowly getting a second term. I also expect Newman to lose Ashgrove, and thus be fired as Premier.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Will post more detailed predictions later, can't believe the QLD election's this early in the year!

I'm going with the consensus of large swing to the ALP, with the LNP narrowly getting a second term. I also expect Newman to lose Ashgrove, and thus be fired as Premier.

God I love twitter on days like these... apparently the electoral commission has been ready for about 3-4 weeks for an election to be held by early March, and the reason why Newman might have pulled the trigger so unexpectedly early (to the point that some of the Cabinet are still on leave) ... is that Newman was expecting to be knifed within the next fortnight.

... it's all scuttlebutt and twitter rumour, but you can't help but think the tactic actually makes sense. It forces the internal critics to shut up and get behind him until at least, the election, when he'll lose and they can fight amongst themselves and it catches Labor on the hop.

[Barnes]

The ABC's site for the Queensland election (run by the great psephologist Antony Green) is up and running: http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/

An election calculator (which should be quite a bit of fun) will be up later this week.

[morgieb]

Gonna say LNP 51-49, LNP to retain govnerment but Newman to lose his seat. Had he waited a little longer I think he may well have lost.

[checkers]

I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?