Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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  Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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Author Topic: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015  (Read 30139 times)
windjammer
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« Reply #75 on: January 18, 2015, 09:30:42 AM »

Morgieb, check your PMs please Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #76 on: January 18, 2015, 06:36:39 PM »

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.
He's probably still a better option for them then say Seeney or Springborg or another ex-Nat. Emerson's probably not experienced enough yet, Nicholls is iffy as well.

In practice yes, but the LNP generally hates him. Basically he's the scapegoat "how could we blow this so spectacularly?!?!?! Oh, it's HIS fault!"
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #77 on: January 18, 2015, 07:24:13 PM »

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.
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morgieb
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« Reply #78 on: January 18, 2015, 08:11:32 PM »

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.
Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #79 on: January 18, 2015, 08:13:21 PM »

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.
Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?

I predicted a Labor win in Stafford, and a narrow LNP win in Redcliffe, so a 50% track record?

(Ok, my post above was slight hyperbole, but I am very frustrated and pessimistic)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #80 on: January 18, 2015, 08:59:09 PM »

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.
Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?

I predicted a Labor win in Stafford, and a narrow LNP win in Redcliffe, so a 50% track record?

(Ok, my post above was slight hyperbole, but I am very frustrated and pessimistic)

Aren't you always...

Well a small LNP win vs a massive swing to the ALP does put a dent into the quality of that record Tongue

The ALP swing in SE QLD alone will put them into the late 20s- most people assumed the swing in Ashgrove would be a lot smaller than many in that part of the state. The issue becomes how much smaller. Plus there will be some awful repercussions for Campbell if he's able to hold his seat by a tiny margin, after throwing millions at it... and lose 25-30 seats.   
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« Reply #81 on: January 18, 2015, 09:08:17 PM »

They're also doing fairly well in the Far North - so with that plus SEQ, they'll easily get over 20 seats.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #82 on: January 18, 2015, 10:10:28 PM »

They're also doing fairly well in the Far North - so with that plus SEQ, they'll easily get over 20 seats.

Indeed - my expectation is they'll get around 35-38 seats, some of the swings being spoken about in internally polling (insert all possible caveats on that) suggest that the results in the Northern belt between Mackay and Cairns could be as bad, if not worse, than the SE. That makes it an interesting period for the Government, that's for sure.

Newman will probably be rolled within 12 months if he survives.

There's another reason to be VERY wary of polling, not just the issue that most people are coming back to reality now, but that the optional preferential votes are really problematic. Newman is trying the same "vote 1... and only 1" tactic that worked so well for Labor under Beattie. So in reality, trying to estimate a TPP, based off 2012's preference flows is probably a little bit of  a mistake.
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Knives
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« Reply #83 on: January 18, 2015, 11:14:38 PM »

QLD needs to activate their unions, that's why Labor won in Victoria basically.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #84 on: January 20, 2015, 10:50:45 PM »

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #85 on: January 20, 2015, 11:11:39 PM »

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.

I'm expecting we'll see a strong swing to the LNP- Labor's campaign has been awful while the LNP's has been brilliant.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #86 on: January 21, 2015, 12:56:14 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2015, 02:27:21 AM by Senator Polnut »

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.

I'm expecting we'll see a strong swing to the LNP- Labor's campaign has been awful while the LNP's has been brilliant.

So... accounting for the "henny-Talley" weighting... a status quo result.

Having said that - I'd hardly be shocked if there is movement to the LNP.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #87 on: January 21, 2015, 03:06:54 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2015, 03:18:00 AM by Senator Polnut »

It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's 52-48 out from 50-50 a fortnight ago... hardly terrible for the ALP - I'd again, warn about basing TPP on 2012... the primaries suggest it's going to be a nail-biter
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« Reply #88 on: January 21, 2015, 03:15:20 AM »

It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's such a terrible issue to choose, too, given that Labor actually began the sale of the assets in the first place.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #89 on: January 21, 2015, 03:22:51 AM »

It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's such a terrible issue to choose, too, given that Labor actually began the sale of the assets in the first place.

Indeed.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #90 on: January 22, 2015, 03:53:31 AM »

According to a known psephologist blogger - he is suggesting that internal polling is suggesting that (time for the massive caveat on TPPs when you have optional preferential) the LNP is ahead 51.5-48.5% based on 2012 preference flows. What's more interesting is that that number has not moved in six months.

Again, noting that the swing will not be uniformly applied, and will be subject to rates of vote exhaustion and local idiosyncrasies ... that IF that were to be applied uniformly, it would lead to a hung parliament with the ALP ahead 42-41 and 6 on the cross-bench.

I was in Brisbane for a couple of days this week and I spoke to a few party people and what I can say is that they're not in any way, shape or form, expecting to win the vote on the day. They don't exclude the idea of forming a minority government. What was an interesting take-away was that a few seats that they're expected to run away with, will be much more of a challenge, due to extremely competent local members... but... that there are a few LNP seat with quite large majorities that could fall. It also re-enforced the rumours I've heard that the some of the swings in SE QLD, may end up being out-paced, by swings on the Coast around Cairns and Townsville.

Morgan is out 50.5-49.5% LNP - but if you assume their viewed ALP bias - it puts them at 52-48..., in line with Galaxy, Newspoll and ReachTEL.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #91 on: January 23, 2015, 01:20:04 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-cl=84411374&x-yt-ts=1421828030&v=GQSAe1cyXMI
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #92 on: January 23, 2015, 03:03:21 PM »

A useless "constituencies" poll has been released for the electorates of Cairns, Ipswich West, and Keppel- none of which have anything in common....

It shows the combined TPP in these seats going from 57.4% LNP in 2012 to 56% ALP today.

This isn't a major shocker since these seats are on single digit margins, and I really wish the money had been better spent on a poll that actually meant something, but I guess we'll have to make do with what info we have.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/24/newspoll-cairns-ipswich-west-and-keppel-poll/
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #93 on: January 23, 2015, 06:47:13 PM »

I agree on the general uselessness of electorate polling - but these are dispersed LNP seats on 6-9% margins - that's the point of it, to show that in seats where there isn't much in common, the electoral response is the same.
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morgieb
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« Reply #94 on: January 25, 2015, 05:20:10 AM »

Albert - classic marginal. Expect it to be a bellweather, with the LNP narrowly holding on.
Algester - one of the triumvriate of seats that have been safe Labor and LNP lately. Expect them to swing back to Labor fairly largely and win them the seats.
Ashgrove - the seat where everyone's eyes will be on. With Jones returning (hence sophmore surge effects being nullified) and the seat being rather marginal Newman is probably the underdog, though if there's a late swing to the LNP his chances of holding dramatically improve, the expectations game could help Newman.
Aspley - would be more marginal under federal figures, but a 20% swing is a massive ask for Labor, they aren't quite doing that well.
Barron River - another seat that seems to be around the margin that Labor needs to win, I suspect the LNP narrowly hold on.
Beaudesert - safe LNP seat. Unlike in the past there doesn't seem to be any populist right candidates to threaten the LNP here either.
Brisbane Central - will be interesting. It's marginal but the high Greens vote might mean that it doesn't swing that much. The seat seems to be evolving too. Probably a Labor gain, but will probably swing less than the state average.
Broadwater - on paper should be a LNP hold, particularly on federal figures, but Labor need Gold Coast seats...and the local MP is apparently pretty disastrous. Still, I don't see Labor picking it up until they're entrenched in governement.
Buderim - LNP hold, yawn.
Bulimba - will flip back to Labor. However given the swing last time was a lot smaller than the rest of the state, it might not swing very viciously for Labor.
Bundaberg - probably too big of a margin to flip back, although Labor did hold the seat for over 100 years consectively.
Bundamba - Labor hold, obviously.
Burdekin - probably a LNP hold, but with the sitting MP retiring it could be close. Labor's best shot of prevailing is if there is a vote split among the right, which could be possible due to the fact that the seat is open.
Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Burnett - LNP hold.
Cairns - another key seat, but all the polling seems to indicate that it will flip back to Labor. The seat has a strong history of being Labor, but before 2012 it was often by small margins.
Callide - LNP hold. Would've been interesting though before the PUP imploded, as their candidate here is quite high-profile.
Caloundra - LNP hold, though McArdle will probably get a bit of scare.
Capalaba - although the LNP sitting member is strong, the margin is too narrow for the LNP to hold on.
Chatsworth - probably will remain LNP, but was a pretty safe Labor seat before the 2005 by-election, so it could either flip back to Labor dramatically, or perhaps it is a sign that the seat has become more conservative lately.
Clayfield - LNP hold, Nicholls would be have an excellent shot of being leader if Newman loses.
Cleveland - LNP hold most likely, from memory this part of the world has become a lot more conservative lately.
Condamine - had Hopper not switched seats he likely would've won this, but as it is it probably will stay with the LNP. Hard to see his son doing that well here.
Cook - on paper should be won by Labor, but there has been promising polling for the LNP. The swing will be small, but I don't think it will be small enough.
Coomera - LNP hold.
Currumbin - LNP hold. Interestingly though unlike most of the other Gold Coast seats this was held by Labor during the 90's, but flipped to the LNP as early as 2004.
Dalrymple - I suspect Knuth has a strong local profile, so a KAP hold.
Everton - this seat has traditionally been Labor-leaning, though there are signs that the seat is trending towards the LNP. As it stands Labor can win the seat, but the margin should be big enough for Mander to hold on.
Ferny Grove - tough call. Could go either way, but the sitting MP in 2012 had a volatile ministry and the new Labor candidate has a high-ish profile as a former Senator. I think Labor narrowly win it.
Gaven - Douglas's influence will be important here. He probably doesn't poll well enough to win, but he could steal enough LNP votes to hand the seat to Labor. Boilover potential, definitely.
Gladstone - with Cunningham retiring, expect Labor to win. Might have been interesting under CPV (Cunningham having anoited a successor) or if the LNP didn't run though.
Glass House - LNP hold.
Greenslopes - traditionally a bellweather, but the seat is too marginal for the LNP to hold most likely. Might not swing particularly big though.
Gregory - LNP hold.
Gympie - LNP hold.
Hervey Bay - LNP hold.
Hinchinbrook - LNP hold. KAP won't poll well here unlike last time.
Inala - Labor hold.
Indooroopilly - Labor did hold this during the Beattie years, but it was widely seen as a fluke that they did. LNP hold, Emerson will probably be in the mix for being a future leader of the LNP/Premier in the near future.
Ipswich - had Nolan retired or something Labor would probably have held this seat even in 2012. As it is it should be an easy pickup for the ALP.
Ipswich West - on federal figures would be an ALP seat. Expect them to win it back comfortably.
Kallangur - while on paper Labor winning the seat seems a reach, there have been some local scandals here relating to the LNP, and the seat would be marginal under federal figures. One of the seats that will decide the election, I think the LNP will narrowly hold.
Kawana - LNP hold.
Keppel - was a National seat for a long time, but that was helped by a very strong local MP. Without Lester the seat generally leans Labor, so I think Labor should win it back.
Lockyer - while this was a batsion of One Nation support which could help Hanson do well, it's probably been too long for Pauline to actually win the seat. LNP should hold.
Logan - should flip back to Labor pretty easily.
Lytton - should be a Labor gain. If the seat was safer though it would be hard for Labor to win due to the sacking of their original candidate.
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morgieb
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« Reply #95 on: January 25, 2015, 05:21:02 AM »

Mackay - although this is a Labor held seat, the sitting MP is retiring and the seat would be LNP held under federal figures. The swing could be small, but Labor should hold.
Mansfield - the Eden-Monaro of Queensland. Given that I think the LNP will narrowly win and the fact that the sitting MP seems to be pretty strong the LNP should probably hang on.
Maroochydore - LNP hold.
Maryborough - with Foley recontesting this looks interesting. Does he still have a strong personal vote? If the vote splits enough (i.e. LNP and Foley get a similar percentage of the vote and the populist right parties poll well) Labor could even win - they did hold the seat as recently as the 90's. All in all though I think Foley wins.
Mermaid Beach - LNP hold.
Mirani - with the sitting MP retiring, a former sitting MP contesting for the ALP and therefore the seat lacking the sophmore surge that similar seats will get, the ALP should be favoured here.
Moggill - LNP hold.
Morayfield - probably a Labor gain - the margin seems too narrow for the LNP to hang on and the recycling of the guy that lost in 2012 could also help with nullfying the effects of the sophmore surge. Federally however the Liberals did well here.
Mount Coot-tha - similar to Brisbane Central in that the Greens vote could nullify the swing a little bit, but Labor should be favoured here.
Mount Isa - KAP hold? Looks like a 3-way race, so anyone could win it. Katter did lose a lot of support in his own district in the federal election, but the LNP are probably on the nose in rural Australia as well.
Mount Ommaney - should swing big. Probably won't be big enough to really threaten the LNP here though.
Mudgeeraba - LNP hold.
Mulgrave - Pitt must be a freak, as Labor shouldn't have gone close to holding this seat last time. Yet they did, and it's hard to see how the LNP can win a seat they don't already have.
Mundingburra - the bellweather, even being the seat that saw Labor lose their majority in the 1996 by-election. I thought Labor would be the underdog here....but the seat does seem to be getting a lot of attention. I think Labor pinch it.
Murrumba - the seat was a fairly safe Labor seat before 2012 and would be more marginal under federal figures. I think Labor win it back.
Nanango - I don't think Hopper's gamble of running in Nanango rather than his original seat of Condamine will work. LNP hold.
Nicklin - Wellington should hold on. I don't think there's the same conservative antipathy towards independents like there was a couple of years ago.
Noosa - LNP hold.
Nudgee - should be an easy Labor gain.
Pine Rivers - Labor have their chances, but this seems a seat where they aren't optimistic. 2018, maybe?
Pumicestone - should be close, but the sitting MP is strong and Galaxy had the LNP ahead. I think the LNP hold on.
Redcliffe - Labor should hold, but there'll be a correction in the LNP's favour that will make the margin more like 2-3%.
Redlands - should be an LNP hold on paper, but there seems to be some local controversies that might hamper the LNP....expect a big swing.
Rockhampton - Labor hold.
Sandgate - see Nudgee.
South Brisbane - Labor hold.
Southern Downs - LNP hold.
Southport - although Labor held this before 2012, the sitting MP is solid and this is traditionally conservative territory. The LNP should be fine here.
Springwood - another bellweather. Would think the margin is too great for Labor to win, but they do have a reasonably strong candidate so it might have a large swing.
Stafford - Labor hold, though with a correction in the LNP's favour.
Stretton - like Algester, a formerly safe Labor seat that looks safe LNP on paper. Think they'll all be won by Labor again. Though the Independent running here did well in 2012, and he does lean Labor.....
Sunnybank - see what I wrote for Algester and Stretton.
Surfers Paradise - LNP hold.
Thuringowa - interesting. Traditionally though this seat is pretty safe for Labor, ableit with a populist flair that favours populist right parties. I think they'll win this back, but One Nation should poll well given they have a high profile candidate and also a lot of the Katter vote to mop up.
Toowoomba North - tough. Should be an LNP hold on federal figures, but Shine is running again and he seemingly has a strong personal vote. In addition this is an area in which Labor wants representation and their hunger could be enough to snatch the seat. Think the LNP hangs on...barely.
Toowoomba South - LNP hold, though apparently the LNP did campaign in Toowoomba, so perhaps this might be more marginal than what it appears on paper.
Townsville - with a high profile Labor candidate and a narrow LNP margin, this should be a Labor gain. The one published poll had them way ahead here.
Warrego - LNP hold, though apparently this has had visits from both Labor and the LNP, so it could swing.
Waterford - Labor gain.
Whitsunday - interesting. If Labor can mop up the Katter vote, this could be a surprise gain. Otherwise, I think the LNP narrowly hangs on.
Woodridge - Labor hold.
Yeerongpilly - Labor gain. How badly Judge polls will be interesting to see.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #96 on: January 25, 2015, 03:29:14 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2015, 08:40:59 PM by Talleyrand »

My personal guess is something around 54% for the LNP in TPP, with Labor winning about 27 seats and the LNP holding around 57. I'm also expecting the 2 Katter MPs to hold on, and Wellington to win, while Liz Cunningham's candidate holds Gladstone and Chris Foley takes back Maryborough.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #97 on: January 26, 2015, 03:50:06 AM »

Great job morgieb, very instructive (I would take more, but there is no more divisions!), but I suspect it's a typo?

Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
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morgieb
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« Reply #98 on: January 26, 2015, 05:15:49 AM »

Great job morgieb, very instructive (I would take more, but there is no more divisions!), but I suspect it's a typo?

Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Yes haha, meant Broadwater.
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« Reply #99 on: January 26, 2015, 06:32:22 AM »

Yes good predictions! I think I pretty much agree with all of them - I haven't decided on every seat yet.
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