Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Barnes]

I'll keep an eye on:

- Mackay: For the above mentioned reasons as well it being Labor's most marginal seat, which isn't much, to be honest
- Whitsunday: If Labor gets a uniform swing large enough to take this one (roughly 11%), the LNP looses their majority.
- Mirani: Same as Whitsunday
- Murramba: A uniform swing to the ALP to take this seat (about 9.5%) would leave the LNP within my range on a predicted majority, so I have a real interest in this one!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

It's not about whether or not Labor wins - it's how they perform in these seats. Bulimba is an inner-urban, wealthy and educated seat - Waterford because it's in one of the S/W Brisbane growth areas - Greenslopes because it is a pretty mixed seat - Whitsunday, just to see how the ALP vote is doing in a non-marginal and non-metro seat.

Although, I will be curious to see how the Redcliffe and Stafford margins hold up.

[BaconBacon96]

Playing with the ABC calculator, it has occurred to me that there is a very good chance we might not have a government on election night. KAP and the independents will hold the balance of power, which isn't the most comforting thought.

[Barnes]

Playing with the ABC calculator, it has occurred to me that there is a very good chance we might not have a government on election night. KAP and the independents will hold the balance of power, which isn't the most comforting thought.

That would be rather unfortunate, but I think the swing required for a hung parliament is outside of the current state of the race.

[Zanas]

Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

I've just been wondering how "summer school break" works down under ? Here in Europe, school stops for approximately two months, July and August. Do your schools close January and February ? And for businesses ?

[checkers]

Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

I've just been wondering how "summer school break" works down under ? Here in Europe, school stops for approximately two months, July and August. Do your schools close January and February ? And for businesses ?

Schools close from mid-December through to around Australia Day (26th of Jan). Most businesses only really close for the public holidays (though I think some close from Christmas through to New Years Day), but many workers tend to take their leave around this time, so everything slows down.

It should be interesting to see how Bulimba goes. The Coalition's margin is tiny of course, and I feel like Labor should get it back this election, but with that seat becoming more and more gentrified I wonder how it will trend in the future. This is just personal observation but I felt like whenever I went down there during the 2013 elections, all I saw were Glasson signs - though I suppose they could just be a very zealous minority

[Sol]

Why does everyone think that the ALP is going to gain so much? Is the LNP really unpopular in Queensland? I thought it was a more right-wing state.

 

Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

I've just been wondering how "summer school break" works down under ? Here in Europe, school stops for approximately two months, July and August. Do your schools close January and February ? And for businesses ?

Schools close from mid-December through to around Australia Day (26th of Jan). Most businesses only really close for the public holidays (though I think some close from Christmas through to New Years Day), but many workers tend to take their leave around this time, so everything slows down.

Do you all get a break in the winter at all?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

[Sol]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it at 52-48 LNP, from 50-50 last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/galaxy-lnp-41-labor-38-in-queensland/

[BaconBacon96]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

They have governed in a very...aggressive style? Basically they have had a lot of controversial polices and haven't been afraid to fight for them.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it at 52-48 LNP, from 50-50 last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/galaxy-lnp-41-labor-38-in-queensland/

That would produce an Assembly roughly like this:
LNP: 45
ALP: 39
Others: 5

Of course, as with any swing, this assumes uniformity, but it would be quite an impressive comeback for Labor.

[Barnes]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

They have governed in a very...aggressive style? Basically they have had a lot of controversial polices and haven't been afraid to fight for them.

There's a lot of policy that we can hash through, but the main point is that the governmemt has been particularly aggressive about implementing its policies, and unapologetically so, really turning a lot of people away from them.

That, combined with the fact that the 2012 landslide could not possibly be repeated in the score of Labor seats the government holds, gives Labor the hope of making a dramatic comeback. Which really means reforming into a large opposition - not winning governemnt.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing we need to dispel is this idea of QLD as a Conservative bastion. It's more populist and parochial than almost any other. Keep in mind that between 1989 and 2012, the right was in power for only 18 months.

Outside of Christmas/New Year there isn't another period where people take long breaks - but there are periods around 2-week school holidays, around Easter, July and in Sept/Oct

[checkers]

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

If you're interested in some of the specific policies that have been controversial, I suppose it would be the public service cuts and cuts to various health programs, which meant that a lot of people lost jobs, or access to certain health programs. This is a big issue in a lot of the inner or middle ring suburban Brisbane electorates we're speculating he'll lose, including his own of Ashgrove. He's also been criticised on various civil liberties counts - the "Bikie laws", which aims to crack down of Bikie related crime by jailing all members of motorcycle gangs, and giving the Attorney-General the powers to indefinitely extend the sentences of sex offenders. This ties into the arrogant and confrontational style that everyone mentioned - when he was criticised over the sex offender law he called his critics "apologists for pedophiles".

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has it at 53-47 to LNP. RIP ALP.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/newspoll-and-galaxy-53-47-and-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Newspoll has it at 53-47 to LNP. RIP ALP.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/newspoll-and-galaxy-53-47-and-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/

On those numbers, the ALP should still win over 30 seats though.

Seats I'll be watching in particular:

Mirani - Ted Malone, the incumbent LNP member, is retiring after 21 years. Jim Pearce, the  former member for Fitzroy, which covered a lot of the present-day Mirani prior to 2009, is contesting the seat for the ALP, and in the current climate, has a good chance of winning.

Greenslopes - With a strong bellwether record (since 1960, if you count the 1995/6 period) that's likely to be broken, and a small swing last time, it will be interesting to see what happens here. I expect Labor to pick it up, not sure by how much though.

Lockyer - How much will perennial loser Pauline Hanson poll? Frankly, she should have got the message years ago.

Gaven - Will Alex Douglas poll enough to actually shape the result, i.e. allowing Labor to win on vote-splitting, or otherwise force the LNP to preferences?

Yeerongpilly - It will be interesting to see who Carl Judge polls closest to, out of the following:

• Geoff Shaw (12.9%)
• Adele Carles (5.5%)
• Craig Thomson (4%)
• Peter Slipper (1.55%!)

Cook - A poll had the LNP in front, although there is a large indigenous population in this seat, who generally lean Labor. Labor running an indigenous candidate could very well help them here, and this seat had one of the smallest swings in 2012, although KAP muddled the mix that year.

Ashgrove - Obviously Premier Newman's not that popular amongst many Queenslanders, although even if you're not a fan of him or the LNP, you've got to give him credit for running in Ashgrove again, and not fleeing for the likes of Moggill.

Redcliffe/Stafford - Where the ALP margin in these seats will go, wouldn't be surprised to see a small correction to the LNP in Redcliffe, but not Stafford.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has Labor ahead 53-47 in Ashgrove, a narrowing from 55-45 last time around.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/14/reachtel-ashgrove-pol/

[Talleyrand]

Electorate polls!!!!!!!

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/17/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-in-ashgrove/

Newspoll-

Ashgrove (LNP 5.7%)- 51-49 Labor

I'm increasingly convinced Newman will hold this. He even has a positive 51-42 approval in the electorate, although this is a small (600) sample.


Galaxy-

Barron River (LNP 9.5%): 50-50.
Cairns (LNP 8.9%): 53-47 to Labor.
Greenslopes (LNP 2.5%): 59-41 to Labor.
Mulgrave (Labor 1.1%): 61-39 to Labor.
Mundingburra (LNP 10.2%): 51-49 to Labor.
Pumicestone (LNP 12.1%): 52-48 to LNP.
Thuringowa (LNP 6.7%): 52-48 to Labor.
Townsville (LNP 4.8%): 58-42 to Labor.

Overall this tracks to about a 10% swing to Labor, with a huge 12% in the Southeast (and surprisingly) a possible wipeout for the LNP in the Far North. Obviously this will fade by the time the election happens, but still interesting.

[morgieb]

Odd results. Generally though electorate polling should be taken with a grain of salt.

If Newman does retain, either voting patterns in those sort of seats are odd, or Labor are performing quite badly.

[Knives]

or... Newman's 100 mill cash spent in the seat is working.

[checkers]

Obviously I can't say for certain, but my ~gut feeling~ is that Newman will probably eke out a narrow victory there.

In other news, One Nation is apparently "poling" "30 to 47%" in "some electorates".

[morgieb]

Obviously I can't say for certain, but my ~gut feeling~ is that Newman will probably eke out a narrow victory there.

In other news, One Nation is apparently "poling" "30 to 47%" in "some electorates".

At least their website is in the 21st Century now lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.

[morgieb]

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.

He's probably still a better option for them then say Seeney or Springborg or another ex-Nat. Emerson's probably not experienced enough yet, Nicholls is iffy as well.