Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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  Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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Author Topic: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015  (Read 30145 times)
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #100 on: January 26, 2015, 08:41:36 PM »
« edited: January 27, 2015, 02:12:53 AM by Anton Kreitzer »

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and the ALP stands a good chance here. I think Mansfield and Mundingburra, this election pending, are better seats to use as bellwethers in the future.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2
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« Reply #101 on: January 26, 2015, 09:46:28 PM »

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #102 on: January 26, 2015, 09:49:57 PM »

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?
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morgieb
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« Reply #103 on: January 26, 2015, 11:51:47 PM »

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?
Worth noting Bundaberg was held by the ALP by Labor or Labor-leaning Independents for the entirety of the JBP years. And Toowoomba North is competitive....maybe there's a flow-on effect from there?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #104 on: January 27, 2015, 01:02:23 AM »

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?
Worth noting Bundaberg was held by the ALP by Labor or Labor-leaning Independents for the entirety of the JBP years. And Toowoomba North is competitive....maybe there's a flow-on effect from there?

Or than they expect traditionnal Labor seats to swing hard to Labor?
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morgieb
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« Reply #105 on: January 27, 2015, 01:39:00 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2015, 01:40:33 AM by morgieb »

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #106 on: January 27, 2015, 02:12:09 AM »

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.

Thanks, will amend that now - obviously remembered him being the pre-2012 member in Greenslopes.
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« Reply #107 on: January 27, 2015, 02:35:45 AM »

It was interesting, I was in Brisbane last week, and I noticed a LOT of Cavallucci volunteers out and about around New Farm.

I doubt he can hold that seat, but that one might end up being one of the closer ones, but its demographics aren't that dissimilar to Bullimba.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #108 on: January 27, 2015, 05:46:40 AM »

ReachTEL and Galaxy are polling Ashgrove tonight.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #109 on: January 27, 2015, 03:18:52 PM »

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Looks like Labor may be headed for a major disappointment.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/28/queensland-election-minus-three-days-2/

Apparently it's considered likely that Tim Mulherin's (the retiring ALP Deputy Leader) seat of Mackay will fall to popular local mayor, Julie Boyd, an independent.
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« Reply #110 on: January 27, 2015, 03:52:20 PM »

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Looks like Labor may be headed for a major disappointment.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/28/queensland-election-minus-three-days-2/

Apparently it's considered likely that Tim Mulherin's (the retiring ALP Deputy Leader) seat of Mackay will fall to popular local mayor, Julie Boyd, an independent.

This is counter to what I've been hearing that this is a lot closer than the media thinks it is.
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« Reply #111 on: January 27, 2015, 07:12:19 PM »

The other element that is giving me cause for pause is the LNP strategy of 'just vote 1'. Now, it worked really well for Beattie in 2001, when the Government was on the upswing and could rely on just 1st preference votes and random good feelings toward them. I actually think the LNP is making its biggest tactical error on this front.

For example, all the Ashgrove HTV cards have Jones way in front of Newman. In fact, every single HTV card has Newman dead last. Which is why the whole based off 2012 preferences is a bad idea to fixate on.

I'm trying to figure out my predictions... I've stuck to a 52/53% TPP LNP win - with the LNP on around 49-53 seats and the rest split, since well before the campaign arrived. But there's something not sitting right with me at the moment.
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« Reply #112 on: January 27, 2015, 09:20:15 PM »

I'm interested in how exactly Beattie got so much so success from "just vote 1" in his three landslides. I mean, I understand many Labor voters following his lead in that case, but how exactly was he able to deploy it so effectively to split the Nationals/Liberals/One Nation. I would have expected a big counter-effort within those parties to prevent the scenario that ended up happening.
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« Reply #113 on: January 27, 2015, 10:04:06 PM »

I'm interested in how exactly Beattie got so much so success from "just vote 1" in his three landslides. I mean, I understand many Labor voters following his lead in that case, but how exactly was he able to deploy it so effectively to split the Nationals/Liberals/One Nation. I would have expected a big counter-effort within those parties to prevent the scenario that ended up happening.

What was happening was essentially a civil war, both across the conservative parties and within them - such as when One Nation split between themselves and the City Country Alliance. The 2001 vote saw the ALP pick up 10% on first preferences and gained 22 seats and the LNP only lost 2.8%, but that still saw them lose 17 seats. The "only vote 1"strategy tends to work well, when your competition is weak and divided. The problem is, the LNP aren't the only conservative option, or "conservative"  option at the election and both KAP and PUP voters are not reliable enough to think they could pick up scraps of preferences. IF, the electorate-level voting is at least indicative of what's going on, the LNP primary vote is dropping, the ALP primary is rising (in some cases by much greater levels that the LNP's is dropping) - that suggests that this election isn't necessarily turning into the protest electorate we were expecting and the ALP may be picking up not just the drifting LNP vote, but some more of the independent and small party protest voters from 2012.

I'm really not quite sure what to make of it...
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« Reply #114 on: January 28, 2015, 03:05:39 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 03:20:37 AM by Senator Polnut »

ReachTEL has Ashgrove as 54-46 to the ALP. (Naturally inserting any and all caveats on electorate-level polling).

The other thing that I'm hearing from QLD people is that the LNP advertising has turned negative and the ALP positive in the last day or two before the advertising blackout. That tells me an awful lot about the state of the race...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #115 on: January 28, 2015, 03:47:31 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 03:51:56 AM by MaxQue »

Can LNP really lose, despite their enormous majority? I mean, logically, they can't, but the signals we are getting in this thread might mean otherwise.
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« Reply #116 on: January 28, 2015, 03:57:16 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 05:26:04 AM by Senator Polnut »

Can LNP really lose, despite their enormous majority? I mean, logically, they can't, but the signals we are getting in this thread might mean otherwise.

Honestly... I think a minority Government is a more likely option than we're giving it credit for. That goes both ways, having said that, the ALP would need to have EVERYTHING and then some to go right for them.

Unless the ALP internals are really wonky... they're just either really confident or really content with what the polls are showing. The LNP, however, seems to be freaking out. Apparently Verity Barton was spruiking at the pre-poll in Broadwater. It's in a pretty LNP-friendly area and she's on an 11.3% margin.

... the other element is the Ashgrove poll is probably going to dominate the election news cycle "who is going to replace Newman?" for the next day or so. Now wonder the ALP is acting so relaxed...
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« Reply #117 on: January 28, 2015, 04:59:03 AM »

I could see a Labor minority government supported by KAP based on the premise of not selling assets, among other things.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #118 on: January 28, 2015, 07:45:31 AM »

Very interesting news, Polnut.

Verity Barton's predicament might be somewhat explained by some of the bad headlines that have come her way, since she failed to pay motoring fines that resulted in her ban from driving twice. I know that most voters don't pay attention to things like that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's giving her some jitters even if she's favored (as she probably is).
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« Reply #119 on: January 28, 2015, 07:58:07 PM »

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.
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« Reply #120 on: January 28, 2015, 08:14:02 PM »

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.
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« Reply #121 on: January 28, 2015, 08:16:20 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 08:54:18 PM by Senator Polnut »

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.

Lol, you didn't see how he looked. He's not that good an actor.

EDIT: Some late breaking news. Newman was meant to be doing a regional swing today and part of tomorrow... he's now high-tailing it back to Brisbane, immediately.
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« Reply #122 on: January 28, 2015, 09:18:36 PM »

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.

Lol, you didn't see how he looked. He's not that good an actor.

EDIT: Some late breaking news. Newman was meant to be doing a regional swing today and part of tomorrow... he's now high-tailing it back to Brisbane, immediately.

God I hope you're right. I'm a pessimist, but even I'm beginning to doubt Newman's chances in Ashgrove. He's definitely no better than 50-50 odds, although I don't buy that he's dead.

Anyway, looking forward to the deluge of polls which should be out in the final few days. We've been data-starved for a while. Tongue
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« Reply #123 on: January 28, 2015, 10:46:26 PM »

Considering Newman's rate of vote exhaustion in 2012... if he's not ahead of Jones on primaries, he's done.

I'm going to make a final prediction tomorrow night - but at the moment I have the LNP below 50 seats.
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« Reply #124 on: January 29, 2015, 02:14:56 AM »
« Edited: January 29, 2015, 03:28:50 AM by Senator Polnut »

It's not the best option for a state-wide poll two days out from the results coming in... it's a three-week rolling average and a very small sample size... but considering how bereft we've been for state-wide polling, will take it with a MASSIVE grain of salt.

Essential

Primary votes
LNP: 39%
ALP: 38%
GRN: 7%
PUP: 5%

TPP
LNP: 50%
ALP: 50%

Here's the link... but if there's anything interesting in this poll it's that while the ALP isn't favoured in areas outside of their core... the question on whether they'd be better off with either party in Government, the answer isn't good for the LNP - only 33% say they'd be better off with the LNP in power, the same as the ALP and 25% say it will make no difference.
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