Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, I voted.

Anyway, I'll predict something like:

2PP
LNP: 52.2%
ALP: 47.9%

LNP - 45
ALP - 38
Crossbench - 6

Newman to lose Ashgrove but probably reenter parliament on a by-election.

I would be startled if that happens... the LNP will want to blame Newman and Abbott and move on. I'm expecting a civil war between the Libs and Nats - the Nats have been furious at Newman and the Southern Liberals for being too SE-centric ... the Ns will be trying to restore their position.

[checkers]

I would be startled if that happens... the LNP will want to blame Newman and Abbott and move on. I'm expecting a civil war between the Libs and Nats - the Nats have been furious at Newman and the Southern Liberals for being too SE-centric ... the Ns will be trying to restore their position.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic too. It just seems too neat that he'll just shuffle off after losing his seat. I'm probably underestimating the extent to which he's hated by his party though.

I can definitely see civil war between Nats and Libs. It's amazing how unpopular the LNP have become in regional Queensland.

[Smid]

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooroopilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

Plus a few more leafy suburbs in Clayfield. The opposite bank of the river is also gentrifying (Bulimba), but it also contains many old Labor areas. Indooroopilly contains a few leafy suburbs, but also areas that are strongly student, making Prahran in Victoria a better comparison (if Prahran had a little more of Toorak and a little less of Windsor).

I suspect that much of the reason Brisbane has less diverse electorates is because there is a greater diversity within electorates - probably due to the city council covering the Greater Brisbane Area, rather than smaller borough-style councils of Melbourne and Sydney (where wealthy suburbs are in their own municipalities, and their property rates are spent within those municipalities).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some reports out suggesting that, at least anecdotally, the chances of a the LNP not having a majority are larger than the LNP getting over 50 seats. Some are saying the LNP don't feel comfortable about any seats below 12-13%.

This could be much uglier than I was anticipating. I'm tempted to change my prediction to a hung parliament... but I can't bring myself to do it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Galaxy exit poll has it as 54-46 ... to the ALP. Based largely that the GRN primary isn't exhausting.

But, I'm extremely wary of it. The polls haven't closed and I just don't but it...

[Talleyrand]

The Galaxy exit poll has it as 54-46 ... to the ALP. Based largely that the GRN primary isn't exhausting.

But, I'm extremely wary of it. The polls haven't closed and I just don't but it...

That would be an unprecedented polling failure in recent years. It'll be an LNP win, although Newman is finished. Exit poll has it 56-44 to the ALP in Ashgrove.

BTW, where can I find the ABC livestream?

[Barnes]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

Hopefully, they will make this internationally available in a few minutes.

Alternatively, you can listen to the ABC Radio coverage: http://www.abc.net.au/radio/player/beta/#live/local_brisbane

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

According to both ALP and LNP sources ... the exit poll is closer to reality than the public polling (which is based on 2012 ie horrendous preference flows).

Try the ABC website - maybe a bit-entirely-legal stream

[Talleyrand]

Looked at it,  but ABC hasn't been made international yet; I'm currently watching Channel 9 instead while I wait for geo-block to be removed.

Lot of hype about an ALP win. Lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looked at it,  but ABC hasn't been made international yet; I'm currently watching Channel 9 instead while I wait for geo-block to be removed.

Lot of hype about an ALP win. Lol.

Don't be too quick to laugh ... that's all I'm saying

[Barnes]

Apparently the ALP's internals were showing numbers similar to the exit poll, so it appears that it's not a total aberration.  Should be interesting!

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green- 14% swing in first booth from Cook.

Liz Cunningham's Independent in Gladstone is doing very well.

[Talleyrand]

Interesting- Massive swings to ALP in Bundaberg and Toowoomba South. They'll stay LNP, but now it makes sense why Newman spent time here this week.

[BaconBacon96]

Newman behind by 11%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC now has the ALP on 40 seats...

[checkers]

I just saw that - with the LNP on only 36. I suppose it's still early.

[Barnes]

Never really a surprise, but Ashgrove's gone.

[Ebowed]

These results are looking fantastic.

[morgieb]

Still early days, but I think Labor might win this.

[Talleyrand]

20 point swing to ALP in Bundaberg. As Morgieb has said, it was held by Labor for over a hundred years before 2006, but it's now on a 18% margin. Amazing.

[checkers]

I just saw that - with the LNP on only 36. I suppose it's still early.

And now they're at 42 seats. I'm thinking there may be a hung parliament, or even a Labor victory.

[Barnes]

This is absolutely astonishing.  The LNP made history in 2012, but for Labor to come back at this margin from just 7 seats at that last election is something entirely more remarkable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm flabbergasted... Utterly

[Barnes]

#AnnastaciaForPM

[BaconBacon96]

This is just stunning.