Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[morgieb]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

[Barnes]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

Apparently the PUP candidate was an undisclosed bankrupt, by which he is ineligible to stand for election, per state law.  The ECQ has referred the issue to Crown Law for legal advice.

[YL]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

Apparently the PUP candidate was an undisclosed bankrupt, by which he is ineligible to stand for election, per state law.  The ECQ has referred the issue to Crown Law for legal advice.

There could be a by-election because of that even if the ineligible candidate didn't win?  I see the article says something about preferences for the ineligible candidate affecting the result, but it still seems unnecessary to me.

Lockyer is currently showing as a 205 vote lead for the LNP on ABC.  Any idea how many votes are left to count?  Also, the LNP are shown as 163 votes ahead of Labor in Whitsunday.

[BaconBacon96]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

Apparently the PUP candidate was an undisclosed bankrupt, by which he is ineligible to stand for election, per state law.  The ECQ has referred the issue to Crown Law for legal advice.

My mum knows the guy. Ran a popular restaurant in the area and sold it suddenly. Must have had debts to pay.

And it's looking incredibly close in Lockyer. It's unlikely for Hanson but she isn't out just yet.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It's unlikely for Hanson but she isn't out just yet.

Wait. The Hanson?

[136or142]

This is too good to not post
Former Queensland treasurer Keith De Lacy says the Labor Party did not expect to win Saturday's election and may not be ready to govern the state.

"I remember, a long time ago now, the best part of 30 years, going into the treasurer's office, you know, the big mahogany desks and red leather armchairs and just shaking my head and saying 'what the hell am I doing here?'"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/queensland-election-labor-not-ready-to-govern-former-treasurer/6066594

[Talleyrand]

It's unlikely for Hanson but she isn't out just yet.

Wait. The Hanson?

Yeah, she's running for Queensland Parliament in the seat of Lockyer. Fortunately, it looks like she'll probably fall short assuming absentees and postals don't throw any huge surprises our way.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is too good to not post
Former Queensland treasurer Keith De Lacy says the Labor Party did not expect to win Saturday's election and may not be ready to govern the state.

"I remember, a long time ago now, the best part of 30 years, going into the treasurer's office, you know, the big mahogany desks and red leather armchairs and just shaking my head and saying 'what the hell am I doing here?'"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/queensland-election-labor-not-ready-to-govern-former-treasurer/6066594

That happens with any political surge though. Not necessarily a bad thing. A whole group of unknowns get elected who were only picked because, on paper, their seat was a no hoper.

Labour UK 1945, NDP 2011 to make just two that come to mind straight away.

[Barnes]

At the moment, the ABC is projecting that Labor will finally end up with 45 seats - an absolute majority.

However, as I mentioned before, the revelation that the PUP candidate was a bankrupt will most likely produce a by-election in Ferny Grove.  Labor forming achieving a majority is, in part, contingent on them winning Ferny Grove, which they're ahead in at the present.

If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

[You kip if you want to...]

However, as I mentioned before, the revelation that the PUP candidate was a bankrupt will most likely produce a by-election in Ferny Grove. 

Wait, that's a rule?

[Talleyrand]

However, as I mentioned before, the revelation that the PUP candidate was a bankrupt will most likely produce a by-election in Ferny Grove. 

Wait, that's a rule?

The most likely event is a challenge by one of the parties which could potentially cause the courts to declare a by-election. If there is one, I think Mark Furner should be dumped in favor of a local candidate. His pre-selection caused much controversy because it seems to be a very opportunistic attempt to revive his political career following his heavy defeat in the last senate election and he has no real connections to Ferny Grove.

I don't see how the ALP will get 45. They're on 44 if you count Ferny Grove and Maryborough in their column (the latter in particular could see an independent, Foley, elected) and trailing and on track to lose in both Whitsunday and Mount Ommaney. Looks like a glitch on the ABC computer.

[Smid]

If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.

[Talleyrand]

If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.

I reckon that with Furner's issues getting more attention in a byelection, the seat could easily be won the LNP, which could possibly give them a plurality of seats (depending on if Maryborough goes ALP), and enough to form a minority government.

[Ebowed]

If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons.  

See also, Mundingburra by-election.

I reckon that with Furner's issues getting more attention in a byelection, the seat could easily be won the LNP, which could possibly give them a plurality of seats (depending on if Maryborough goes ALP), and enough to form a minority government.

There is no chance that the LNP forms government in Queensland.  The reaction to that would be ... a sight for sore eyes.

Make no mistake, they were voted out last Saturday.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/peter-wellington-announces-support-for-labor-in-queensland/6072282

Peter Wellington is backing the ALP.

[Barnes]

Just an update here, 88 out of 89 seats have been officially declared by the ECQ.  Labor has secured 44 seats, and with Wellington's support, Palaszczuk could be sworn in as Premier as early as today.

There is one seat left to be declared, Burnett, which is projected to be done today.  The Governor has stated that he will seek to commission a Premier once every seat has been declared.

Also, the immediate assumption that there will be a by-election in Ferny Grove is presumptuous.  As Antony Green states, "If every one of the voters who cast these '1'-only ballots had voted for the LNP candidate in the absence of Taverner [the PUP candidate] on the ballot paper, Labor would still have won Ferny Grove by more than 100 votes...That makes it harder to argue that Taverner's presence on the ballot paper has affected the outcome in Ferny Grove."

[Barnes]

Some new developments: Palascczuk is meeting with the Governor now to be commissioned as Premier, and the Commission has declined to lodge a petition with the courts over Ferny Grove.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some new developments: Palascczuk is meeting with the Governor now to be commissioned as Premier, and the Commission has declined to lodge a petition with the courts over Ferny Grove.

Annastacia Palaszczuk has been (officially) commissioned by the QLD Governor to form government.

[morgieb]

Assuming all seats have finished counting - here is the pendulum:

Labor seats (44)

Woodridge   26.00%   
Inala   25.40%   
Budamba   21.40%   
Ipswich   15.90%   
Rockhampton   13.80%   
South Brisbane   13.80%   
Waterford   13.40%   
Yeerongpilly   13.30%   
Mulgrave   12.80%   
Mackay   12.40%   
Gladstone   11.90%   vs IND
Morayfield   11.90%   
Nudgee   11.30%   
Logan   10.80%   
Sandgate   10.10%   
Lytton   9.80%   
Stafford   9.60%   
Cairns   8.40%   
Ipswich West   7.70%   
Pine Rivers   7.60%   
Redcliffe   7.60%   
Murrumba   7.40%   
Sunnybank   7.20%   
Capalaba   7.10%   
Algester   7.00%   
Cook   6.80%   
Bulimba   6.20%   
Kallangur   6.20%   
Townsville   5.70%   
Thuringowa   5.50%   
Stretton   4.90%   
Keppel   4.80%   
Mirani   4.80%   
Ashgrove   4.30%   
Greenslopes   4.20%   
Brisbane Central   3.20%   
Barron River   3.10%   
Mundingburra   2.80%   
Mount Coot-tha   2.50%   
Pumicestone   2.10%   
Maryborough   1.70%   
Springwood   1.70%   
Bundaberg   1.30%   
Ferny Grove   0.80%   

LNP seats (42)

Lockyer   0.20%   vs ONP
Mount Ommaney   0.20%   
Whitsunday   0.40%   
Mansfield   0.50%   
Glass House   1.40%   
Toowoomba North   1.60%   
Albert   1.70%   
Everton   1.80%   
Gaven   2.20%   
Redlands   2.20%   
Chatsworth   2.60%   
Buderkin   2.90%   
Southport   3.20%   
Caloundra   3.80%   
Aspley   5.10%   
Currumbin   5.20%   
Cleveland   5.50%   
Burleigh   6.10%   
Hervey Bay   6.60%   
Callide   6.70%   vs PUP
Indooropilly   6.70%   
Gympie   7.10%   
Broadwater   7.20%   
Clayfield   7.30%   
Beaudesert   7.60%   
Burnett   7.60%   
Moggill   8.20%   
Coomera   8.60%   
Noosa   8.60%   vs GRN
Toowoomba South   8.90%   
Maroochydore   9.20%   
Kawana   10.10%   
Mudgeeraba   10.90%   
Gregory   11.10%   
Hinchinbrook   11.70%   
Buderim   12.40%   
Mermaid Beach   12.80%   
Warrego   15.40%   
Condamine   16.30%   
Nanango   16.60%   
Southern Downs   19.20%   
Surfers Paradise   19.20%   

Other seats (3)

Dalrymple    (KAP) 15.00%   vs LNP
Mount Isa    (KAP) 15.20%   vs LNP
Nicklin (Wellington)   14.90%   vs LNP

Bolded indicates gains made from another party, italics indicates seats won by one party at the last election, but flipped in a by-election and were retained by the party that won the seat at the by-election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Antony Green is estimating a Labor TPP win of 50.9 - 49.1%

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green is estimating a Labor TPP win of 50.9 - 49.1%

It's now been revised to 51.1 - 48.9%

[136or142]

males: 27
Females: 17

Reelected
1.Jo Ann Miller, Bundamba, 2000-
2.Annastacia Paleszczuk, Inale, 2006-
3.Curtis Pitts, Mulgrave, 2009-
4.Yvette D'Ath, Redcliffe, 2014-
5.Bill Byrne, Rockhampton, 2012-
6.Jackie Trad, South Brisbane, 2012-
7.Anthony Lynham, Stafford, 2014-

Returned after losing in 2012 (or earlier)
1.Kate Jones, Ashgrove, 2006-2012 2015
2.Grace Grace, Brisbane Central,  2007-2012 2015-
3.Di Farmer, Bulimba,  2009-2012 2015-
4.Jim Pearce, Mirani, 1989-2009 2015-
5.Mark Ryan, Moryfield,  2009-2012 2015-
6.Stirling Sutcliffe, Sandgate, 2006-2012 2015-
7.Cameron Dick, Woodbridge, 2009-2012 2015-

Others who held senior elected office
1.Mark Furner, Ferny, National Senator 2008-2014 (Defeated)
2.Yvette D'Ath, Australia M.P 2007-2013 Queensland M.P 2014-

Cabinet
1.Annastacia Palaszczuk, Premier/Arts
2.11.Jackie Trad, Deputy Premier/Transport, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning/Trade
3.Curtis Pitts, Treasurer/Aboriginal Affairs
4.Anthony Lynham, State Development/Natural Resources and Mines
5.Kate Jones, Tourism and Small Business/Education, Commonwealth Games
6.Mark Bailey, Energy and Water Supply/Main Roads, Road Safety and Ports
7.Bill Byrne, Agriculture and Fisheries
8.Steve Miles, Environment and Parks
9.Leeanne Enoch, Housing and Public Works/Science
10.Corallee O'Rourke, Disability Services/Seniors/North Queensland
11.Shanon Fentiman, Communities, Women and Youth/Child Safety/Multicultural Affairs
12.Cameron Dick, Health
13.Jo Ann Miller, Solicitor General
14.Yvette D'Ath, Attorney General/Training and Skills
15.Stirling Hinchcliffe, House Leader

These are some of the strangest combining of cabinet portfolios I've ever seen. For example, why is there a ministry of transport and a ministry of main roads?  Wouldn't training and skills be a good fit for the minister of education?

[Talleyrand]

Kerry Shine didn't win Toowomba North back and Leanne Enoch is a first-time MP. The male female ratio is 27-17 and the number of Labor MPs is 44.

[136or142]

Kerry Shine didn't win Toowomba North back and Leanne Enoch is a first-time MP. The male female ratio is 27-17 and the number of Labor MPs is 44.

My bad on Leanne Enoch, sorry.
Regarding Kerry Shine, from wiki:
Kerry Gerard Shine (born 5 October 1948) is an Australian Labor Party politician who was member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland for Toowoomba North from 2001 to 2012.