Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newman expected to call the election a LOT sooner than expected, namely, tomorrow. 31 January and 7 Feb being floated as the possible dates.

Looks to me that the LNP want to try to catch the ALP unawares and have as short a campaign as possible. I will say that calling an election before Australia Day goes against one of the rules of electoral politics "don't fu** with people's holidays"

I think 31 Jan is more likely as it would get it over and done with and before Fed parliament sits in the first week of Feb.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If anything is to be learnt from the VIC campaign it is that starting a campaign early is better than a late push. So, I'd expect the LNP have been planning this for quite some time if it really is soon and are hoping to catch Labor out.

Is Labor likely to be caught that off guard? they seem to have already nominated most candidates which would have been one the worse cases with an early election (not having a candidate puts you weeks behind)

Unless they were monumentally stupid, I think the ALP has been ready since late last year. But I do think an election this early in the year, probably has caught them off guard. A lot of the strategists and main office people will still be on leave ... well, not any more.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any "early" predictions?

It seems certain the LNP will hold government; the real question will be how much Labor improves from their 2012 defeat.

I think the LNP will win the TPP 52-48 and probably lose about 20-25 seats. That would still give the LNP a decent majority (about 15-20), but a massive swing nonetheless. Newman will lose Ashgrove.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Will post more detailed predictions later, can't believe the QLD election's this early in the year!

I'm going with the consensus of large swing to the ALP, with the LNP narrowly getting a second term. I also expect Newman to lose Ashgrove, and thus be fired as Premier.

God I love twitter on days like these... apparently the electoral commission has been ready for about 3-4 weeks for an election to be held by early March, and the reason why Newman might have pulled the trigger so unexpectedly early (to the point that some of the Cabinet are still on leave) ... is that Newman was expecting to be knifed within the next fortnight.

... it's all scuttlebutt and twitter rumour, but you can't help but think the tactic actually makes sense. It forces the internal critics to shut up and get behind him until at least, the election, when he'll lose and they can fight amongst themselves and it catches Labor on the hop.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some historical context for you courtesy of poll bludger...

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So the first time there has been an election ANYWHERE in Australia in January in 102 years and on the mainland in 140 years.

The nature of Newman's strategy is being made pretty bloody clear by the timeline he's put in place. He's chosen the shortest time possible under the law for the processes of the election - 5 days for the close of rolls (ie, since that will make it a Saturday, in reality it'll be Friday - so 4days to get all new and re-located voters on the rolls... and QLD has instituted a voter ID rule too... yay) when it could have been seven and the requirement for all nominations for seats to be completed in 8 days (note that the LNP still have three seats without candidates and the ALP have 4 (although, out of those 7 seats, only one is considered to be competitive)) when it could have been eighteen days.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's a somewhat undemocratic move really. Seems the minor parties will struggle to get their candidates on the ballot. Family First for example haven't filed any candidates yet and they always run in Queensland elections.

Yeah, as noted Katter isn't ready... but let's be honest, they were never going to be.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Part of the problem with this election is that the smaller parties (despite what PUP has said) were not ready for an election this soon. But at the same time, you see some polling that suggests this has the signs of a protest electorate all over it. A majority say that the LNP don't deserve to be re-elected, but at the same time, say that the ALP doesn't deserve Government yet. It means a lot of protest votes floating around... but if the usual recipients of those votes aren't in the mix... it makes the outcome and the possible cross-bench make-up really, really hard to figure out.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

KAP to retain their two seats but do  all else, PUP won't do anything now given how much they're imploding. I think Wellington, Douglas and Foley will win out of independents. Pauline will poll well, but not enough to really threaten the LNP's hold on the seat.

Is Pauline, Pauline Hanson of One Nation fame?

Yup

ReachTel has it at 50-50, from 51-49 Labor last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/07/reachtel-50-50-in-queensland/

Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

It's not about whether or not Labor wins - it's how they perform in these seats. Bulimba is an inner-urban, wealthy and educated seat - Waterford because it's in one of the S/W Brisbane growth areas - Greenslopes because it is a pretty mixed seat - Whitsunday, just to see how the ALP vote is doing in a non-marginal and non-metro seat.

Although, I will be curious to see how the Redcliffe and Stafford margins hold up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing we need to dispel is this idea of QLD as a Conservative bastion. It's more populist and parochial than almost any other. Keep in mind that between 1989 and 2012, the right was in power for only 18 months.

Outside of Christmas/New Year there isn't another period where people take long breaks - but there are periods around 2-week school holidays, around Easter, July and in Sept/Oct

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.

He's probably still a better option for them then say Seeney or Springborg or another ex-Nat. Emerson's probably not experienced enough yet, Nicholls is iffy as well.

In practice yes, but the LNP generally hates him. Basically he's the scapegoat "how could we blow this so spectacularly?!?!?! Oh, it's HIS fault!"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.

Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?

I predicted a Labor win in Stafford, and a narrow LNP win in Redcliffe, so a 50% track record?

(Ok, my post above was slight hyperbole, but I am very frustrated and pessimistic)

Aren't you always...

Well a small LNP win vs a massive swing to the ALP does put a dent into the quality of that record

The ALP swing in SE QLD alone will put them into the late 20s- most people assumed the swing in Ashgrove would be a lot smaller than many in that part of the state. The issue becomes how much smaller. Plus there will be some awful repercussions for Campbell if he's able to hold his seat by a tiny margin, after throwing millions at it... and lose 25-30 seats.   

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They're also doing fairly well in the Far North - so with that plus SEQ, they'll easily get over 20 seats.

Indeed - my expectation is they'll get around 35-38 seats, some of the swings being spoken about in internally polling (insert all possible caveats on that) suggest that the results in the Northern belt between Mackay and Cairns could be as bad, if not worse, than the SE. That makes it an interesting period for the Government, that's for sure.

Newman will probably be rolled within 12 months if he survives.

There's another reason to be VERY wary of polling, not just the issue that most people are coming back to reality now, but that the optional preferential votes are really problematic. Newman is trying the same "vote 1... and only 1" tactic that worked so well for Labor under Beattie. So in reality, trying to estimate a TPP, based off 2012's preference flows is probably a little bit of  a mistake.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.

I'm expecting we'll see a strong swing to the LNP- Labor's campaign has been awful while the LNP's has been brilliant.

So... accounting for the "henny-Talley" weighting... a status quo result.

Having said that - I'd hardly be shocked if there is movement to the LNP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's 52-48 out from 50-50 a fortnight ago... hardly terrible for the ALP - I'd again, warn about basing TPP on 2012... the primaries suggest it's going to be a nail-biter

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's such a terrible issue to choose, too, given that Labor actually began the sale of the assets in the first place.

Indeed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

According to a known psephologist blogger - he is suggesting that internal polling is suggesting that (time for the massive caveat on TPPs when you have optional preferential) the LNP is ahead 51.5-48.5% based on 2012 preference flows. What's more interesting is that that number has not moved in six months.

Again, noting that the swing will not be uniformly applied, and will be subject to rates of vote exhaustion and local idiosyncrasies ... that IF that were to be applied uniformly, it would lead to a hung parliament with the ALP ahead 42-41 and 6 on the cross-bench.

I was in Brisbane for a couple of days this week and I spoke to a few party people and what I can say is that they're not in any way, shape or form, expecting to win the vote on the day. They don't exclude the idea of forming a minority government. What was an interesting take-away was that a few seats that they're expected to run away with, will be much more of a challenge, due to extremely competent local members... but... that there are a few LNP seat with quite large majorities that could fall. It also re-enforced the rumours I've heard that the some of the swings in SE QLD, may end up being out-paced, by swings on the Coast around Cairns and Townsville.

Morgan is out 50.5-49.5% LNP - but if you assume their viewed ALP bias - it puts them at 52-48..., in line with Galaxy, Newspoll and ReachTEL.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree on the general uselessness of electorate polling - but these are dispersed LNP seats on 6-9% margins - that's the point of it, to show that in seats where there isn't much in common, the electoral response is the same.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It was interesting, I was in Brisbane last week, and I noticed a LOT of Cavallucci volunteers out and about around New Farm.

I doubt he can hold that seat, but that one might end up being one of the closer ones, but its demographics aren't that dissimilar to Bullimba.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ReachTEL and Galaxy are polling Ashgrove tonight.