Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

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Note, there are maps in the Gallery.

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Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooroopilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

Plus a few more leafy suburbs in Clayfield. The opposite bank of the river is also gentrifying (Bulimba), but it also contains many old Labor areas. Indooroopilly contains a few leafy suburbs, but also areas that are strongly student, making Prahran in Victoria a better comparison (if Prahran had a little more of Toorak and a little less of Windsor).

I suspect that much of the reason Brisbane has less diverse electorates is because there is a greater diversity within electorates - probably due to the city council covering the Greater Brisbane Area, rather than smaller borough-style councils of Melbourne and Sydney (where wealthy suburbs are in their own municipalities, and their property rates are spent within those municipalities).

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A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

Yes, in that they would both be delivered to Parliament on the back of Labor/Greens preferences.

As it stands, from what I can see, she has received more preferences than the LNP in all bar one booth, including four booths where she has received a majority of preferences (including exhausted votes). Every booth won by the LNP on a 2CP basis has been because of a high LNP primary vote and no thanks at all to Labor and Green voters and booth workers on the day.

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If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.