Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[YL]

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.

They seem to think that Foley will do well out of pre-polls and postals and leap-frog Saunders into second. I think it's a long-shot.

Preferences might also save him - there was a large PUP/One Nation vote which Anthony Green thought might push Foley over Saunders and presumably win the seat on Labor's preferences.

ABC currently has the first preferences as
Maddern (LNP) 7962
Saunders (Lab) 6891
Foley (Ind) 5837
Anderson (Palmer) 3354
Huxham (One Nation) 1890
Webb (Green) 616
Wattie (Ind) 261

With those figures I'd have thought it very likely that Foley would get enough preferences from the bottom four candidates to overtake Saunders.

[YL]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

Apparently the PUP candidate was an undisclosed bankrupt, by which he is ineligible to stand for election, per state law.  The ECQ has referred the issue to Crown Law for legal advice.

There could be a by-election because of that even if the ineligible candidate didn't win?  I see the article says something about preferences for the ineligible candidate affecting the result, but it still seems unnecessary to me.

Lockyer is currently showing as a 205 vote lead for the LNP on ABC.  Any idea how many votes are left to count?  Also, the LNP are shown as 163 votes ahead of Labor in Whitsunday.