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Velasco
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« Reply #825 on: May 30, 2016, 10:14:15 AM »

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #826 on: May 30, 2016, 10:41:46 AM »

prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.
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Velasco
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« Reply #827 on: May 30, 2016, 03:20:23 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 02:44:39 AM by Velasco »

prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.

The arrest of Mr Rajoy is very unlikely; no matter how many high towers fall around him, the man stands undaunted. He knew nothing, he was only passing by... Anyway if it's for the good of the country and to unlock the political situation, I second the motion.

In the news, IU membership gave an overwhelming support (74.7%) to the list topped by Alberto Garzón in a vote held on May 26 and 27. The list supported by the current coordinator (IU's leader) Cayo Lara got 20.8% and the list supported by former coordinator Gaspar Llamazares got 4.6%. Turnout was 40.2%. Garzón will be officially appointed next weekend as the new leader of IU.

Mariano Rajoy keeps his promise of lowering Income Tax, despite the noncompliance of deficit targets.

The PSOE offers a "political agreement" to Catalonia that recognises the "singularity" of the region "preserving the implications of the principle of equality". PSC's secretary general Miquel Iceta praises the "courage" of Pedro Sánchez, who returns the compliment to his Catalan counterpart. Sánchez gives support to Iceta in his opposition to an appeal submitted by PP before the Constitutional Court, in order to suppress some social legislation passed by the Parliament of Catalonia conservatives deem as a "separatist challenge".

A campaign video launched by Ciudadanos caricatures Pablo Iglesias and Podemos supporters as idle people who don't want to make an effort to get Spain back on its feet. A bar client makes an emotional speech criticizing the worthless and egoist elites and praising the heroic common people, then Albert Rivera appears in TV. The video has raised some criticism ("populist", "anti-political rhetoric").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXZLUrsIda4
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jaichind
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« Reply #828 on: May 31, 2016, 06:04:11 AM »

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects
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Velasco
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« Reply #829 on: May 31, 2016, 11:04:50 AM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 06:01:08 PM by Velasco »

MyWord poll

PP 29.2%, UP 24.8%, PSOE 20.7%, C's 14.2%, Others 10.1%

Preferred coalition:

Leftwing government (PSOE and UP) 31.9%, Grand Coalition (PP, PSOE, C's) 24.9%, Cross Coalition (PSOE, C's, UP) 15.9% , Centre-right or rightwing government (PP and C's) 14.1%, don't know / don't answer 13.2%

With whom your party should not make agreements?

Voted PP: Podemos 86.4%, PSOE 14.4%, C's 12.2%, should deal with any of them 2.2%
Voted PSOE: PP 55%, Podemos 33.6%, C's 19.8%, should deal with any of them 14.4%
Voted Podemos: PP 76.7%, C's 47.6%, PSOE 16.9%, should deal with any of them 10.1%
Voted C's: Podemos 64.6%, PP 11.6%, PSOE 10.9%, should deal with any of them 23.1%

Which party has more responsibility in the repetition of the elections?

PSOE 31.1%, PP 26.1%, Podemos 13.1%, C's 2.4%, None 2%, All 16.5%

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2016/05/27/politica/1464368417_454489.html

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects

When UPyD was something, party leader Rosa Díez rejected offers of electoral coalition from C's. Now Mrs Díez has left the party she founded and is a retired politician, while the remainder of UPyD is a marginal force. Probably people at C's don't even consider the possibility, given that UPyD has little votes to add to such an alliance.

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jaichind
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« Reply #830 on: May 31, 2016, 05:45:38 PM »

It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.
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Velasco
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« Reply #831 on: May 31, 2016, 07:28:26 PM »

It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.

It's too risky to make predictions, even more when the campaign has still not begun. Allowing PP to govern in minority with Rajoy at the head would be costly for PSOE and Ciudadanos, especially for the socialists. If results match with current polls, the responsibility in making a decision will rest on the PSOE. It's a terrible responsibility, because the future of the party is at stake and the PSOE leadership will be pressed from all sides (party factions and grassroots, other political actors involved, economic and supra-national powers) to make the 'correct' decision. Basically the options are:

a) Grand Coalition (PP-PSOE and eventually C's). The preferred option of the EC, the Troika and the great economic power.

b) Leftwing coalition. In case PSOE and UP reach 170 seats, it would be relatively easy that PNV votes the investiture or abstain. Polls say that UP will get more votes than PSOE, but it's not sure the Podemos-IU alliance is going to win more seats.

c) PP minority government or PP-C's coalition with the abstention of PSOE. This is in all likelihood the preferred option of some socialist 'barons' and old party elephants. Pedro Sánchez would be virtually dead and all eyes will turn to Andalusia premier Susana Díaz.

I think that option b) is very risky and difficult to realize, but options a) and c) are potentially suicidal for the PSOE. What will socialists do once they are at crossroads? Nobody knows, maybe c).

There would be an option d) called "technocratic government", presumably with the same supporting parties and implications of option a).

Keep in mind that among the main obstacles for the materialization of agreements involving PP are the corruption scandals and the acting PM. Right now it's hard to see Rajoy stepping aside for a technocrat or making way for another member of his party, but who knows? Maybe Mr Rajoy would feel vindicated if the result places PP first and go back to Pontevedra, to be replaced by Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría or someone else. That man is hermetic and undecipherable and there is a science that studies the 'Mariano Code' in the style of the old Kremlinology.
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ag
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« Reply #832 on: May 31, 2016, 09:15:29 PM »

a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).
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« Reply #833 on: June 01, 2016, 03:16:42 AM »

Wouldn't PSOE have the opportunity to just play hardball by basically repeating what they have done this time: make a deal with C's and then try to pressure PP or Podemos into letting them govern?
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Velasco
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« Reply #834 on: June 01, 2016, 10:13:25 AM »

a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).

If the PSOE chooses c), it will have to deal with the stigma of allowing a rightwing government. The credibility of socialists as opposition force will be questioned. Podemos, that is a more dynamic force and the only one that (like it or not, with all its defects and inconsistencies) represents a real change, will take advantage of that.

Option d) would be terrible for the credibility of the democratic system as a whole, in my opinion. Technocratic cabinets in Italy and Greece proved to be a fiasco.

Option b) is risky and requires courage. That is a quality that I fail to see in the PSOE leadership and, in any case, the 'barons' and the 'senate' will hardly allow a coalition with UP. If you take a look at the MyWord poll, you'll see that a leftwing coalition is the preferred option of more than a half of PSOE voters. However, Podemos generates rejection in more than a third of them. It's very difficult to reconcile both tendencies.

Wouldn't PSOE have the opportunity to just play hardball by basically repeating what they have done this time: make a deal with C's and then try to pressure PP or Podemos into letting them govern?

I don't think so. Neither PP nor Podemos will allow to be sidelined. The PSOE-C's agreement was a product of the circumstances. Once Mariano Rajoy renounced to the investiture, Pedro Sánchez (highly contested in the PSOE's federal commission after the bad election results) tried to seize his chance to survive as party leader... and with luck to be elected PM. His main burdens where internal opposition and the menace represented to PSOE's hegemony in the left by the arrogant upstarts of Podemos... not to mention that Catalan separatists would hold the balance of power in case of a leftwing agreement. Given that the federal commission banned in practice the possibility of a deal with Podemos and associates, Sánchez turned his eye to Ciudadanos. The agreement was beneficial for the orange upstarts, because it allowed Albert Rivera to be on the centre of the stage after a disappointing result in the elections which placed C's in a no man's land, without the possibility of becoming in kingmaker. While Pedro Sánchez tried to attract C's to a deal with Podemos (an unlikely 'Cross Coalition'), Albert Rivera stated explicitly that his aim was to add PP to the deal (that is to say, the 'Grand Coalition' disguised as 'reformist pact'). At the end, those manoeuvrings ended in nothing but posturing. PSOE and C's have an implicit nonaggression pact for the upcoming campaign, but their agreement is dead letter.
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jaichind
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« Reply #835 on: June 01, 2016, 10:35:11 AM »

Maybe its me but I think I saw this movie before

PP                          = ND
PSOE                     = PASOK
Podemos                = SYRIZA
C                            = DIMAR
IU                          = ANEL ? KKE ? I guess neither fits
May 12 election      = Dec 15 election
June 12 election     = June 16 election

What is similar is not just the parties but the political calculations each actor has seems to be similar as well.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #836 on: June 01, 2016, 10:50:25 AM »

C's is ideologically closer to To Potami tbh.
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Velasco
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« Reply #837 on: June 01, 2016, 10:54:44 AM »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 10:56:57 AM by Velasco »

Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

To begin with: there is not a counterpart for the Golden Shower; PSOE is far more resilient than PASOK; IU is not as regressive as KKE or ANEL; and Podemos is not Syriza, although they have certain affinity.

A campaign video launched by Ciudadanos caricatures Pablo Iglesias and Podemos supporters as idle people who don't want to make an effort to get Spain back on its feet. A bar client makes an emotional speech criticizing the worthless and egoist elites and praising the heroic common people, then Albert Rivera appears in TV. The video has raised some criticism ("populist", "anti-political rhetoric").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXZLUrsIda4

The C's video has provoked a lot of jokes in social networks. For those who can understand Spanish, here's the 'Bolivarian' reply to the C's campaign spot made by La Tuerka News.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgrX8J0qXQY

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Zinneke
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« Reply #838 on: June 02, 2016, 04:01:15 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2016, 04:04:57 AM by JosepBroz »

Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

In fairness To Potami and C's are both the same electoral phenomenon : a party filling a void in the electoral market for a pro-European, pro-liberal, anti-nationalist moderate center in the context of polarization.

You are going to see similar movements in France (Macron's movement), Belgium (Défi), Germany (FDP back in the polls), Austria (NEOS),  and Italy (in power). These Blairite/Tapie social-liberals are a European phenomenon.

If you don't think Spain is in at least a political crisis and at best a constitutional crisis with part of its country unilaterally separating, and as such is incomparable to Greece's economic and political crisis, then I question your authority on the matter. I'd leave it up to political scientists though.
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Velasco
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« Reply #839 on: June 02, 2016, 04:23:50 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2016, 06:18:00 PM by Velasco »

The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Of course there is a resemblance between To Potami and Ciudadanos, Syriza and Unidos Podemos. Even admitting there's a wave of 'Blairite/Tapie social-liberals' across Europe: Do the origins of C's in Catalonia and its emergence in the Spanish political scene years later tell you anything about the particularity of the 'orange phenomenon' in Spain? Obviously the insurgent parties (Podemos and C's in Spain) have appeared in a context of crisis of representativity and came to fill a void. You could say there's a general phenomenon of crisis of representativity that affects western democracies. Would you say that the response has been the same in all countries? 

I said in my previous post that the Spanish State functions despite it's facing a huge institutional crisis. I don't deny the gravity of the situation in Spain. There is a crisis with multiple faces: economic, constitutional, moral,  existential... What I meant is that, at a basic level of functionality, the state is working: healthcare, education, justice, payment of pensions and so on... Sadly,  in Greece such functionality is on the verge of collapse. Also, Greece has no problems with secessionist regions. To compare crises of different nature (separatism vs economic collapse) sounds to me like apples and oranges. They are different problems, even though there's a connection between the rise of Catalan separatism and economic crisis in Spain, that is not to say that economy is the only causation of separatist feelings. Of course, I never claimed to be an authority. I'm only a person posting in Atlas Forum.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #840 on: June 03, 2016, 02:40:14 AM »

The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics. I think this is where we are misunderstood. You are saying that Podemos and Syriza, or FN and AfD, are two different entities because you are defining them according to their origins, national particularities (in terms of policy) and party structure. But I am talking about their voters, which will ultimately determine where they end up as a political force. As an electoral phenomenon, these parties' and their rise have to be put in a European political context, and are therefore comparable.

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The origins of C's in Catalonia have little to do with their rise overall, apart from their amazing result in the 2015 regional election (due to the particular context). C's were nowhere in the rest of Spain (where they presented lists), a minor party in Catalonia, and on the brink of dissolving or ditching Rivera until they did what all the other social liberal parties did - fill the pro-Europe social liberal void. Their breakthrough came in a European election at the heart of a decade of European decay, on a pro-European, anti-extremist/nationalist platform.

Parties like FDF, D66, and even the FDP were not social liberal parties either, but they all did what C's eventually did, and fill an electoral market void. It just goes to show how the vote defines the party and not the other way round. That's the new democracy we are headed for.


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It has a similar effect in terms of emergence of populist parties or, in the case of multi-ethnic states, seperatist ones. I understand your point regarding Spain and Greece's different crisis, but I fail to see how that difference is reflected electorally, apart from the rise of Golden Dawn. And I do believe both Spaniards and Greeks externalise their crisees in a European context. The comparison between Greece and Spain, and To Potami and Ciudadanos, is perfectly valid in a European political context.
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Velasco
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« Reply #841 on: June 03, 2016, 06:57:50 AM »
« Edited: June 04, 2016, 06:47:42 AM by Velasco »

Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics.

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

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I'm afraid you are mistaken here. In my opinion, it's impossible to explain Ciudadanos (or UPyD, for that matter) without knowing anything about the historical conflicts between the centre and the periphery that are a particular characteristic of Spain. The breakthrough of C's in Catalonia, from a minor single-issue party to become in the first opposition party, is associated with the vicissitudes of the "independence process". In the context of Catalonia, Ciutadans is not a moderate party that fills a void between two extreme poles. The party succeed in the 2015 regional election, whose focal point was the "process" rather than the ideological confrontation, because it was perceived by many voters as the best champion of the "unionist" cause. As for the rest of Spain, Ciudadanos came to fill a void to voters on the centre and the centre-right side of the political spectrum, disillusioned with the political and economic situation as well by corruption scandals in the mainstream parties. Ciudadanos also connects with a segment of the population with more "centralist" leanings, opposed to further regional devolution and/or separatism. The anti-separatist record of C's in Catalonia for sure helped to its rise nationwide. Some elements of the C's discourse may suggest that it has certain characteristics of a "populist" or "catch-all-party". In the graphs posted in the previous page you can see that a majority of the C's voters is ideologically moderate. However, the party has support amongst voters placed in more extreme positions. Maybe that's saying something.

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I think that the rise of Golden Dawn in Greece and the absence of a similar phenomenon in Spain is of quite some significance. On the other hand, talking about an "emergence of populist parties" in a generic context says little about the nature of the different "populisms". For instance, Podemos cannot be explained without the emergence of the Indignados movement (that was a Spanish phenomenon, although it had influence in 'Occupy Wall Street' and other similar movements), other civic platforms like the anti-eviction movement led by Ada Colau and certain young professors influenced by sophisticated political theories redefining "populism". I mean, it's a singular phenomenon that can be seen within a wider context but it's not totally comparable or assimilable. The Spanish, the Greek and the rest of Europeans externalise their different crises in multiple ways.
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Velasco
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« Reply #842 on: June 05, 2016, 07:12:15 AM »

Metroscopia / El País

PP 28.5%, UP 25.6%, PSOE 20.2%, C's 16.6%, Others 9.1%

Harsh editorial in El País: "A great sham: the centre-left draws back before the grip of populism and catastrophism"
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jaichind
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« Reply #843 on: June 09, 2016, 06:27:22 AM »

CIS poll

PP                29.2%         118-121
PSOE            21.2%           78-80
Podemos-IU  25.6%           88-92
C                  14.6%           38-39
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Velasco
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« Reply #844 on: June 09, 2016, 07:37:58 AM »

CIS poll

PP                29.2%         118-121
PSOE            21.2%           78-80
Podemos-IU  25.6%           88-92
C                  14.6%           38-39



According to CIS, 32.4% is undecided.

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2016/06/09/d36c29f5ed3cf9bfae0f6f5cb8fdee7b.pdf
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Zinneke
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« Reply #845 on: June 09, 2016, 10:50:51 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 10:58:53 AM by JosepBroz »

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?
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Velasco
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« Reply #846 on: June 09, 2016, 09:27:03 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 09:41:46 PM by Velasco »

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Yes it's a good point, the North of France and the East of Germany share in common industrial decline. As for Basque Country and Catalonia, Bildu and the CUP represent another type of response to globalization. Plataforma per Catalunya, that is an anti-islamic and xenophobic party, had some support in Metropolitan Barcelona and other municipalities of Catalonia. It's the party more similar to FN and others in the like.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?

Actually the Foro has elements of rightwing populism, as well of caudillismo. It was the personal vehicle of a PP dissident called Francisco Álvarez Cascos. Anyway, the Foro support has declined and there's not a turn in that direction right now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #847 on: June 09, 2016, 10:05:39 PM »

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?
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Vosem
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« Reply #848 on: June 09, 2016, 10:31:06 PM »

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.
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« Reply #849 on: June 10, 2016, 04:35:44 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2016, 04:38:13 AM by JosepBroz »

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative.  

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.
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