Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Big news: Podemos will present a no confidence vote against Rajoy

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/podemos-plantea-mocion-censura-contra-rajoy-6000718

I guess it's a way to try and influence the PSOE primary? (forcing them to reiterate their support towards a corrupt PP government). Though the PSOE could vote yes if they are sure that Catalan parties or the PNV will abstain (a no confidence vote requires 50%+1). Maybe they just want some headlines?

I seriously doubt this is actually intended to put Iglesias as PM.

Edit: I was right. PSOE has said they won't support it, so it's going nowhere. The best paralel is the 1987 no confidence vote, when PSOE had an absolute majority and it was a worthless no confidence vote.

[Nanwe]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

[Velasco]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

Pablo Igkesias is not a jerk like that Hernández Mancha. He is the Spanish Lenin: a true Alpha Male

[Former President tack50]

Weird polling for Madrid's regional assembly:

El País/Metroscopia

PP: 36 seats (25,7%) (-12 seats, -7.3%)
Podemos: 35 seats (24,9%) (+8 seats, +6.3%)
Ciudadanos: 31 seats (22.6%)(+14 seats, +10,5%)
PSOE: 27 seats (19.7%) (-10 seats, -5.7%)

PP+Cs still hold a majority, and expanded a bit. Also, there's a sorpasso not just from Podemos, but also from Cs! Huge changes overall, I'm not sure if it's all that reliable.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/30/media/1493576170_430043.html

La Razón/NC Report

PP: 51 seats (35.9%) (-3 seats, +2.8%)
PSOE: 34 seats (24,6%) (-3 seats, -0.8%)
Podemos: 26 seats (18,1%) (-1 seat, -0.5%)
Cs: 18 seats (13,1%) (+1 seat, +0.9%)

http://www.larazon.es/local/madrid/cifuentes-sube-tres-escanos-tras-la-crisis-de-la-operacion-lezo-FC15063053

PP and Cs also increase their majority slightly.

This one is a lot closer to the national average, and I don't think Madrid will deviate all that much from the national average for a general election. It's not the first place that comes to mind when talking about "dual voting" (the Basque Country is a great example, with PNV winning regional elections and Podemos winning general ones)

In any case I'd say Madrid is lean PP for 2019's regional election, maybe even likely PP (Cifuentes is doing a good job at distancing herself from the recient corruption cases). If PSOE was not able to win in 2015 or in 2003 (the second election) or 2007, it's definitely not winning now, and even with Errejón as Podemos' candidate a Podemos victory is also unlikely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

[Nanwe]

Yet another poll for the region of Madrid. I think it shows Metroscopia is the rather off one.

In this scenario, the current Cifuentes government would lose its majority, being replaced with a left-wing PSOE-Podemos government. The polling was done in the last couple of days, so it reflects the Operación Lezo aftermath.

La Sexta/Invymark

PP: 44 seats (30.9%) (-4 seats, -2.2 pp.)
PSOE: 36 seats (25.8%) (-1 seats, +0.4 pp.)
Podemos: 30 seats (21.3%) (+3 seats, +2.7 pp.)
Ciudadanos: 19 seats (13.5%)(+2 seats, +1.4 pp.)

While it's true Madrid won't deviate too much from the national vote, Madrid I think is the region where Ciudadanos can obtain its best results, so depending on how things develop down the road with regards to what seems to be only the beginning of yet another round of tremendous PP corruption scandals, it could be greatly benefited. Also, Madrid does experience dual voting insofar as the PSM is no longer the second most-voted party in the general election, but remains so in the autonomic elections, perhaps as the PSM's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo is a pretty popular person in the left (thanks to his tenure as Education Minister under ZP) and who's not unpopular amongst the right either. I know a few friends who liked Gabilondo's smooth, tranquil political persona and voted for him in the regional election, but Podemos (or even Ciudadanos) in the local and the national election.

[Former President tack50]

How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

Old polls but anyways (keep in mind approval ratings in Spain are usually given as a 1-10 score instead of regual approval/disapproval):

Manuela Carmena, Madrid (March 2016): +6 approval rating
Ada Colau, Barcelona (January 2017): 5,1/10 score
Jose María "Kichi", Cádiz (June 2016): 4,7/10 score

From what I can tell, they are all doing reasonably well for Spanish politicians. Just being above water or at least close to a 5/10 is already an achievement. Rajoy is at a 3/10 for comparison

[Former President tack50]

Surprise in the PSOE primaries!

Susana Diaz wins the collection of endorsements, but by a smaller margin than expected especially considering she has basically the entire party leadership with her.

She collects 62000, Pedro Sánchez 57000 (beating his 2014 record) and Patxi López 12000 (though he refused to make this step a preliminary primary)

I guess this means the PSOE primary is too close to call?

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/04/590aef9fe5fdea4b338b4657.html

For reference you need 5% of the party to endorse you (9500 people). And in 2014 the endorsements were:

Pedro Sánchez: 41000 (ended up with 49% of the final vote)
Eduardo Madina: 25000 (ended up with 36% of the final vote)
Antonio Perez-Tapias: 10000 (ended up with 15% of the final vote)

Edit: Apparently the amount of endorsements this time is equal to 70%! of the total PSOE members (and almost equivalent to the amount of voters in 2014)

So either the primaries will have ridiculously high turnout (90% or more, which considering the circumstances might happen) or the result won't vary much from the endorsements collection.

Only other option for an upset is Patxi López dropping out for some reason, but again isn't likely to happen.

[Kamala]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

[Former President tack50]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia reciently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

As for whether Macron's victory will help Cs, I don't know but I'm leaning on no. It definitely won't hurt either though. He seems to be using it as publicity for his liberal platform and being proud of France electing a liberal though, so maybe it will help him slightly?

For all what's worth I don't see any scenario leading to a "Prime Minister Rivera", or even to a Cs governor (Catalonia would be their best bet in a wide anti independence movement, but that seems extremely unlikely)

[Mike88]

2 new polls:

CIS


Invymark/laSexta

[Velasco]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia recently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

I'd be very careful with such comparisons, even though some media in Spain like to resort to them. While it's true that there are similarities on the "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing, there are many differences between the Beautiful Rivera and the Flawless Macron, as well between C's and En Marche! or between the political situations in Spain and France.

To begin with personal backgrounds: Macron was a very young cabinet member with the socialist Hollande (Minister of Economy!), briefly a PS member and never elected to any representative post until past Sunday. To the contrary Rivera has never been appointed minister, was never a PSOE member (some reports claim that he was in the PP youth organisation), but he has been a very young party leader and elected representative (member of the Parliament of Catalonia and later of the Congress of Deputies). Also, Rivera has never been in something similar to the ENA.

On the other hand, C's and En Marche! (with their slightly different origins and organisational models) might have in common the anti-corruption thing (Fillongate!), but hardly the anti-separatist thing. Peripheral nationalism is a Spanish phenomenon  that means very little in France (although there are some separatists in the Pays Basque). The origins of C's are in Catalonia and in the fight against Catalan nationalism. The "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing came later, although in the beginning the official ideology of the party was some place between liberalism and socialdemocracy (currently only liberalism).

The C's people is very happy with the Macron phenomenon for obvious reasons. However they should curb their enthusiasm a bit, because they can make fools of themselves. For instance, the claim made by MEP Javier Nart on a private meeting between him and Macron with Rivera present had to be denied by the C's leader in TV. Rivera had to admit: "I have never met Macron".

[Former President tack50]

Multiscenario poll by El Mundo-Sigma Dos depending on who wins the PSOE primaries:



http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/14/591750e9468aebac518b4590.html

Interesting to see that it's Pedro Sánchez who would perform the best, getting 2011-like results, back when Podemos/Cs did not exist! instead of Patxi López as common wisdom would have it. Then again 2011 was a terrible result for PSOE. Maybe the 2 party system is coming back? (PSOE+PP easily get more than 55% even with Susana Díaz, while back in 2015 they weren't able to even get 50%)

Generic poll (without mentioning the candidate):



Other than PSOE making a comeback (unsurprising considering Podemos' circus) and Cs making small gains (unsurprising considering the "Operación Lezo") the other thing that sticks out to me is PDECat getting half the votes than in 2015! Maybe Catalan nationalism is dying out? (ERC is stable, not rising). Seems weird considering nationalists in the Canary Islands and the Basque Country are getting tons of concessions (though maybe that's the cause as PDECat voters would prefer a deal with Rajoy in exchange for money like back in the days of Aznar?)

[SPQR]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

[Velasco]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

Indeed. Susana Díaz is so devoid of substance that makes Pedro Sánchez good. It's not strange that Mariano Rajoy is still hanging on when you consider how worthless are the leaders of the opposition parties: the red, the purple and the orange. I'll try to watch the video when I can, just for the fun.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is Lopez like?

[MAINEiac4434]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.

[Former President tack50]

What is Lopez like?

Former governor of the Basque Country, and I think he is usually well considered (though he lost reelection in 2012, but then again, so did all PSOE governors at the time except in Andalucia and Asturias).

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition, with the objectives of fighting terrorism and the like (and ETA dissolved under his watch, so mission accomplished there I guess).

As for the position in the party, he used to support Sánchez but has moved on and is running between Sanchez and Diaz. He is considered a good candidate, but without a chance, and since the leadership election is FPTP this has led to the "train crash" (as Lopez puts it) between Diaz supporters and Sanchez supporters.

[Former President tack50]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.

Yeah, I've often seen stuff like "Susana Diaz seems to want to become Spanish Hillary. Didn't she learn anything?".

Also, her region has been in quite a bad shape under her tenure as governor. Then again it's Andalucía, no one expects it to be in good shape but still. Her branch of the party is also the most corrupt PSOE branch by far (at the rates of PP in Madrid or Valencia). Her 2 predecessors are being judged for corruption.

The more I think about it, the more the PSOE primary reminds me of the US Democratic primary, with Diaz=Hillary, Sanchez=Sanders and Lopez=The minor candidates (O Malley?). Then again there are also huge differences (while Sanchez is running as an anti-establishment candidate like Sanders, he was part of the establishment. Also all Americans were able to vote in the Democratic primary while only around 200k PSOE members can vote in this one. And Patxi Lopez has a lot more traction than O Malley and the like ever got)

[Velasco]

What is Lopez like?

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

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[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.

[Velasco]

Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

If you are not that interested, why giving a fyck for the destruction of PSOE?

Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.

Even if it doesn't collapse quite as hard as PASOK, could her tenure realistically result in PSOE's marginalization and replacement by Podemos as the undisputed most powerful party of the left, or has Podemos already missed their window to become the primary party of opposition? Again, I'm not particularly well-adversed on Spanish politics so I'm fully aware that I might sound like a total moron on the subject.

Maybe the heart of problem is that Pablo Iglesias and his clique are too obsessed in turning Podemos into the main party of opposition, instead of turning Podemos into a party of government. Despite Susana Díaz claims to be a candidate that can win elections, polls are consistently saying that Pedro Sánchez is the preferred candidate of socialist voters and supporters, as well he would perform better than her in a general election. It's not that Sánchez is brilliant, but the way his rivals ousted and humiliated him have contributed to give our man a maverick aura. In times of hardship, people in Spain loves mavericks. The PSOE is strongly entrenched in certain geographic areas, as well among certain social and age groups. Susana Díaz would be a leader on the defensive but, again, the Podemos leadership is now playing on the defensive too (the motto seems to be "to resist" instead of "to win")

[Former President tack50]

What is Lopez like?

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

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Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.

[Former President tack50]

Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

Yes and no. She is the one with the highest chance of turning PSOE into PASOK, though unlike PASOK, PSOE would probably survive and still win some elections in the south, turning into a "Partido del Sur Oeste Español" (party of the Spanish SouthWest).

On the other hand, Podemos doesn't seem like a viable party to replace them. Had Errejón won the primaries and become the new leader then sure, PSOE would die with Diaz (though even with Lopez or Sanchez they'd be on a tougher position). But if it's Iglesias vs Diaz I can't see Podemos gaining that much. I guess a result could be:

PP: 35%
Podemos: 19%
PSOE: 19%
Cs: 15%

With massive abstention on the left (a la 2000, but worse) due to the 2 terribly flawed candidates. In fact, if infighting and unpopular candidates continue to dominate on the left, I expect Rajoy (or whoever replaces him if he retires) to keep rulint at least until 2022.

In fact, Rajoy might become the "right wing Felipe Gonzalez" in that regard. A corrupt president who still managed to make the country prosper more or less (we entered NATO with Gonzalez and Rajoy presided over the exit of the crisis)

[Velasco]

Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.

Spain lacks of a tradition of coalition governments at national level, but there have been many coalition agreements at regional and local levels.