The Next Florida

[Del Tachi]

Florida saw massive population growth from the 1940s into the 1990s due to a large influx of northern retirees and Hispanic immigration.  This growth changed the political and physical characteristics of the Sunshine Shine and removed it from the South's sphere of influence.  What made Florida an attractive place for retirees was of course its nice weather, reputation as a tourist destination, and its (once) low cost of living.

So, my question is, are there any other states out there that are poised to become the "Florida" of the 21st Century?  Such a state would look today what Florida looked like in 1930 or 1940 perhaps - warm, cheap and already having an at least somewhat established reputation as one of "America's Playgrounds".

Running through the list I keep arriving at the same conclusion:  Louisiana.

Louisiana is warm and relatively cheap, and the state already has a well established reputation as a cultural tourist destination.  Could it become a retiree/immigrant haven by mid-century?  If so, how much growth could we expect to take place in the Pelican State and how would the "Floridazation" of Louisiana affect both national and state-level politics?   

[politicus]

Louisiana is also even more corrupt than Florida.

http://fortune.com/2014/06/10/most-corrupt-states-in-america/

[CountyTy90]

South Carolina. Southern, cheap, hot, touristy and its growth rates are starting to ramp up.

Wasn't it in the top ten fastest growing states in the report recently put out by the Census Bureau?

[Miles]

Some areas of the New Orleans metro certainly owe their growth to hispanic immigrants; especially after the storm.

Also, the area of the state thats growing the fastest now is the Florida parishes (the parishes that I-12 runs through). Sadly for Democrats, I've compared this area to northwestern AR in that its rapidly growing, but most parishes their are heavily Republican.

Wasn't it in the top ten fastest growing states in the report recently put out by the Census Bureau?

Well, the New Orleans metro could really only go up after the storm. Orleans Parish, for example, is just over 80% back to its pre-storm population, compared to 65% in 2008, IIRC.

[Skill and Chance]

Leaning toward Louisiana as well, but climate change could throw a bad wrench into that.  Also, I would point to Arizona presently becoming a state politically dominated by transplant retirees. 

As for politics, it's important to remember that retirees are now a lot more monolithic of a conservative vote than 20-30 years ago when Florida changed, but the national swing vote/state-local conservative dominance fits well with retirees with significant assets to protect.  I'd look for all of the preferred retiree destinations to drift right barring some countertrend (e.g. immigration in AZ).  This will probably continue until the oldest (and most liberal) millennials start retiring, because Gen X is a bit right of the Boomers on most issues.

[Del Tachi]

Something else Louisiana has going for it is its growing film industry, and New Orleans is quickly starting to be regarded as a destination for educated, artistic young adults as cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco suffer from bad labor markets and slow growth.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

One scenario, however unlikely :

With Global warming making the sunbelt a horrific hellhole of unrelenting heat,  humidity and water rationing in the 2060's. A reverse migration northwards could happen. You could see Michigan with its large land area, lakes and cheap real estate become a retiree hotspot after people start fleeing the oppressive heat of the sun belt. It could be Michigan's renaissance and the state could re brand itself from a post industrial state in decline to a retiree destination.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Texas and Arizona.

[Sol]

Louisiana doesn't have very many beaches though. IMO SC is already becoming this.

[Padfoot]

South Carolina. Southern, cheap, hot, touristy and its growth rates are starting to ramp up.

Wasn't it in the top ten fastest growing states in the report recently put out by the Census Bureau?

I would tend to agree with this assessment.  I'm not to familiar with Coastal Georgia but I wonder if it could spill over into that area as well.

[seb_pard]

Puerto Rico if become the 51st state.

[CountyTy90]

South Carolina. Southern, cheap, hot, touristy and its growth rates are starting to ramp up.

Wasn't it in the top ten fastest growing states in the report recently put out by the Census Bureau?

I would tend to agree with this assessment.  I'm not to familiar with Coastal Georgia but I wonder if it could spill over into that area as well.

To me the Georgia coast seems a bit marshy, if that's a word? Sure it has some beaches, but I think South Carolina's seem better (been to neither).

Sol brought up a good point about Louisiana having no beaches as a hindrance to its future growth.

[TDAS04]

The arguments for South Carolina seem good.  It already receives several retirees. 

[Del Tachi]

But Louisiana has New Orleans, SC has golf.

[Sol]

But Louisiana has New Orleans, SC has golf.

And which one of those is more appealing to rich old white people?

[Sbane]

Something else Louisiana has going for it is its growing film industry, and New Orleans is quickly starting to be regarded as a destination for educated, artistic young adults as cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco suffer from bad labor markets and slow growth.

Uhh..what? Do you have any clue about what is going on in the Bay Area right now? There is a boom going on over there. The 1990's are back in the Bay Area (but not the rest of California).

And to answer the thread, obviously the answer is South Carolina. It already has Myrtle Beach and Charleston, warm weather, nice beaches and has easy access to the East Coast, where a lot of the retirees come from.