Madigan vs. Kirk: Blowout or not?

[henster]

IF Madigan decides to run I don't think it'll be a question of if she wins or not but if it's a blowout and Kirk ends up the Pryor of the cycle. I say yes and Madigan wins by double digits 57-41.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think Madigan would win, but not even close to 15 points. 6-8 point win probably?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Madigan would win by the same margin as Durbin did this yr.

[Xing]

It probably wouldn't be a blowout unless Kirk made some serious mistakes during the campaign. Madigan could end up winning by 7-9 percent, though.

[Maxwell]

Madigan 51-47, she's overrated as a candidate.

[DrScholl]

Madigan would prevail about 56-44.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kirk would sweep non-chicago outside of Alexander, Rock Island, and maybe a couple others. In the collar counties, Kirk probably takes the majority of them, but Madigan would narrowly carry a few. Madigan would likely get slightly less than Durbin in Cook.

That probably comes out to 53-45 or thereabouts statewide.

[Nichlemn]

I don't really see Madigan as being the juggernaut lots of people seem to think she is. Winning a downballot statewide office by a large margin, especially as the incumbent, does not necessarily indicate unusual aptitude as a candidate (see e.g. Terri Lynn Land and Alison Lundergan Grimes). Sure, they were running in states politically hostile to their party at the federal level, but they still didn't really perform any better (or performed worse, in the case of Land) than you'd expect a generic candidate to.

She might win in a blowout, but if so, it'd probably be a race that most Democrats would have won in a blowout.

[Mr. Illini]

Madigan would win by the same margin as Durbin did this yr.

This.