Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Boston Bread]

Shawbonquit has conceded. There's always 2018.

I take back what I said about a win for ethics in politics

[Hatman 🍁]

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

This is part of the reason, and had this been a clean campaign with Olivier as the candidate, the Liberals would've won by a lot.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP concedes.

[toaster]

Why would the Liberals have gained here and the NDP dropped, when it seems that Wynne is almost as bad a premier as McGuinty?

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

It's only a few months in.  Sudbury wants $$$, funding, 400 to Sudbury ASAP, etc.  A by-election this early into a term, I am not surprised.  Also, looks like PCs bled a lot of support, perhaps to the Liberals?  Not sure.

[Boston Bread]

Also the Sudbury Star endorsed Thibeault after endorsing NDP in 2014 because of the prospect of having a member of the government in power. In 2014 a minority was expected so an NDP MPP would have leverage in that situation.

PCs probably suffered from bad turnout, like the NDP did in Whitby-Oshawa. If you don't think your party has a chance you're more likely to not vote.

[136or142]

Why would the Liberals have gained here and the NDP dropped, when it seems that Wynne is almost as bad a premier as McGuinty?

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

It's only a few months in.  Sudbury wants $$$, funding, 400 to Sudbury ASAP, etc.  A by-election this early into a term, I am not surprised.  Also, looks like PCs bled a lot of support, perhaps to the Liberals?  Not sure.

While I realize it's politics, the idea that a government riding would get more 'goodies' than an opposition riding sickens me.

In regards to the funding, why would Thibeault have more success getting those things than the previous long time Liberal MPP had?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why would the Liberals have gained here and the NDP dropped, when it seems that Wynne is almost as bad a premier as McGuinty?

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

It's only a few months in.  Sudbury wants $$$, funding, 400 to Sudbury ASAP, etc.  A by-election this early into a term, I am not surprised.  Also, looks like PCs bled a lot of support, perhaps to the Liberals?  Not sure.

There is a sizeable anti-NDP vote in the north that has no problems going back and forth between Tories and Liberals. Even if the Liberal is a former Dipper.

[King of Kensington]

Andrea Horwath's by-election winning streak is over. 

[136or142]

King of Kensington, when you walk down the street do you smile at everyone?

[Holmes]

Yeeeeaah, the Liberals can get away with anything in this province and even get rewarded for it. They might as well start assassinating their enemies and taking money directly from people's pockets on live TV at this point, then their majority will probably grow larger.

[adma]

Though in this case: given yesterday's news, I wonder what the results might have been had the election taken place 24 hours later...

[Boston Bread]

Is there a good chance of a new NDP leader before 2018 now? I think it would be good for the party.

[King of Kensington]

Is there a good chance of a new NDP leader before 2018 now? I think it would be good for the party.

I agree.  Sacrificing 3 Toronto MPPs was inexcusable.  Andrea's defenders railed against "wine-sipping Toronto elitists" who didn't get her appeal to "everyday folks" in places outside Toronto like...Sudbury. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I was flabbergasted at the calls for her resignation after the election (whiny Toronto elitists, maybe? ), but this is Andrea's first actual electoral setback, and that usually means the door for non governing parties.  While I'm not frothing at the mouth for her to go, the math says she should.

[DL]

I don't think Sudbury was "about" Andrea Horwath...it was "do you want a government MPP to make sure your roads ever get paved?" followed by "do you think the Liberals are crooks because of what they did in trying to bribe Andrew Olivier?", followed by "Do you think Thibeault is a traitor for switching parties?". It was a byelection, no one was voting for the next Premier of the province.

The people who bitch about Andrea Horwath NEVER seem to be able to name anyone who they think would make a better leader - and until they do, this issue is moot.

For all the talk of her "sacrificing" three Toronto seats...I agree that her campaign wasn't very appealing to downtown Toronto - but even if she had pressed every single button to gladden the hearts of intellectual NDP-Liberal swing voters in downtown Toronto, I'm not sure how much of a difference it would have made. Maybe Beaches-East York would have stayed NDP - but I don't think Trinity-Spadina was salvageable no matter what Horwath said or did and Davenport is a question mark.

[King of Kensington]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree hatman - I don't think they had to "run against Toronto elitists" in order to pick up 3 seats elsewhere, 2 of which were low hanging fruit and only one was a very big swing.

I don't think Andrea steps aside though.  

As a successor, I like the idea of Jagmeet Singh.  He's young, can appeal to multicultural communities and represents the most working class municipality in the GTA (save Oshawa) - would help bridge the Toronto/not-Toronto divide.  Catherine Fife is quite ambitious and I'm sure she'd run - as the most moderate or small-"l" liberal candidate.  Taras Natyshak I could see representing more of a "laborist" perspective.  

[Holmes]

I like how some people seriously think that some seats in downtown Toronto are so important that Horwatch should step down, as if they're more important than Whitby-Oshawa, or Niagara, or Kitchener-Waterloo, or London West. Obviously the NDP needs to be able to do well in Toronto to win government, but the province outside of Toronto is also very important and Horwath has performed well there. And don't forget that Marchese was on his way out anyway, and it was a miracle that he even held on in 2011.

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voters often punish the incumbent party when there is an 'unnecessary' by-election.

[DC Al Fine]

I like how some people seriously think that some seats in downtown Toronto are so important that Horwatch should step down, as if they're more important than Whitby-Oshawa, or Niagara, or Kitchener-Waterloo, or London West. Obviously the NDP needs to be able to do well in Toronto to win government, but the province outside of Toronto is also very important and Horwath has performed well there. And don't forget that Marchese was on his way out anyway, and it was a miracle that he even held on in 2011.

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

And therein lies a problem for the NDP. How do they keep their coalition together? It seems when they appeal to the working class left, they bleed cultural left voters and vice versa.

[EPG]

I like how some people seriously think that some seats in downtown Toronto are so important that Horwatch should step down, as if they're more important than Whitby-Oshawa, or Niagara, or Kitchener-Waterloo, or London West. Obviously the NDP needs to be able to do well in Toronto to win government

I think you have answered your own question. Strong and permanent opposition is much more popular among partisans than politicians.

[King of Kensington]

I don't agree with the premise that the NDP *only* would have picked up Windsor, Sudbury and Oshawa if they had ticked off Toronto voters.  

And there's no route to government for the NDP without winning most of the seats in Toronto.  They could not do it with as few seats as Harris got (8 in 1999 I believe).  I don't know why raising this point is so controversial.

I thought Andrea was supposed to have introduced a "culture of winning" in the ONDP.

[Hash]

I love the idea that it's somehow impossible for the NDP to win both evil-elitist downtown Toronto and places like Sudbury, Windsor, Oshawa and Niagara and that a choice must be made.

[DL]

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

I totally disagree that people in Northern Ontario are all racists who would never vote for a party led by a South Asian. A lot of people thought that people in places like Sudbury and Thunder Bay would also never vote for a party led by a lesbian! - and last time i checked being homosexual was still somewhat more taboo than being from India - and Wynne's sexual orientation seems to have been a complete non-issue to the voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

I totally disagree that people in Northern Ontario are all racists who would never vote for a party led by a South Asian. A lot of people thought that people in places like Sudbury and Thunder Bay would also never vote for a party led by a lesbian! - and last time i checked being homosexual was still somewhat more taboo than being from India - and Wynne's sexual orientation seems to have been a complete non-issue to the voters.

I disagree. I think in this day and age there's less persecution of gays/lesbians than for some minorities. Everyone has a racist family member who complains about the "towel heads". Singh is a great candidate, he's very charismatic, intelligent, and a great story. However, his ethnicity would scare off some voters. Sad, but true.

Speaking of racism, I'm sure there were voters in Sudbury who were turned off by the NDP running an Aboriginal candidate. It's no coincidence that Ontario has never elected an Aboriginal MPP.

[andrew_c]

Yeeeeaah, the Liberals can get away with anything in this province and even get rewarded for it. They might as well start assassinating their enemies and taking money directly from people's pockets on live TV at this point, then their majority will probably grow larger.

This byelection once again proves that the Ontario Liberals are essentially a criminal organization.