Canadian by-elections, 2015

[DL]

Obviously racism exists...but there is less of it among people in the NDP universe than in the rest of the population...and need i remind you that the US is VASTLY more racist than Canada and they elected a black man as president. Oh an btw - how is it that Calgary of all places has a mayor who is a Muslim South Asian?

[MaxQue]

Obviously racism exists...but there is less of it among people in the NDP universe than in the rest of the population...and need i remind you that the US is VASTLY more racist than Canada and they elected a black man as president. Oh an btw - how is it that Calgary of all places has a mayor who is a Muslim South Asian?

Relationships between White people and Native people in northern Quebec and Ontario are close of Deep South ones.

[Khunanup]

From a few thousand miles away this is pure bad politics by the ONDP. They had everything in their favour (bar the unnecessary resignation) and blew it. FFS, don't blame the electors or the OLP (get in by the way!) think why they failed so badly.

I'm still quite surprised why Horwath didn't quit (or wasn't forced to) after the provincial election campaign disaster.

[Boston Bread]

From a few thousand miles away this is pure bad politics by the ONDP. They had everything in their favour (bar the unnecessary resignation) and blew it. FFS, don't blame the electors or the OLP (get in by the way!) think why they failed so badly.

I'm still quite surprised why Horwath didn't quit (or wasn't forced to) after the provincial election campaign disaster.

To say everything was in their favour is wrong. As was previously mentioned Liberals are guaranteed to be the governing party for 3+ years so some are wishing that a favourable vote will get Sudbury funding for local things. Also polls showed Olivier took more from the NDP than the Liberals, so his candidacy might have hurt the NDP. The NDP have lost their momentum since the last provincial election, so a by-election in a non-safe NDP seat was always going to be competitive.

[EPG]

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

I totally disagree that people in Northern Ontario are all racists who would never vote for a party led by a South Asian. A lot of people thought that people in places like Sudbury and Thunder Bay would also never vote for a party led by a lesbian! - and last time i checked being homosexual was still somewhat more taboo than being from India - and Wynne's sexual orientation seems to have been a complete non-issue to the voters.

If the tables were turned as regards the personalities involved, I bet the NDP's failure would be blamed on the anti-LGBT bigotry of Sudbury voters.

[Boston Bread]

I'm not going into how racism played into the by-election, but it's a fact that racism against aboriginals is a more deep-rooted problem than homophobia in Canada today.

[politicus]

I'm not going into how racism played into the by-election, but it's a fact that racism against aboriginals is a more deep-rooted problem than homophobia in Canada today.

Isn't it also a fact that racism against aboriginals is stronger than racism against (most) immigrants? That is clearly my impression.

[King of Kensington]

Yes. I would say anti-Aboriginal racism shows up more at the ballot box.

[adma]

And don't forget that Marchese was on his way out anyway, and it was a miracle that he even held on in 2011.

Not necessarily such a miracle.  After all, that was Olivia Chow's federal riding, Jack & Olivia's *home* riding, it was post-Orange Crush and right after the Layton funeral.  Given all of that, it's more a miracle that he nearly lost than that he held on that year...

[adma]

Relationships between White people and Native people in northern Quebec and Ontario are close of Deep South ones.

Then why did Romeo Saganash get elected in 2011?

[King of Kensington]

In Alabama and Mississippi, Obama got about 10% of the white vote.  10%!  Still, not denying that anti-Aboriginal racism shows up at the ballot box in much of the country. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Relationships between White people and Native people in northern Quebec and Ontario are close of Deep South ones.

Then why did Romeo Saganash get elected in 2011?

Caught up in the orange wave of course. Same goes for the Innu who got elected as well.

Obviously racism exists...but there is less of it among people in the NDP universe than in the rest of the population...and need i remind you that the US is VASTLY more racist than Canada and they elected a black man as president. Oh an btw - how is it that Calgary of all places has a mayor who is a Muslim South Asian?

Of course racists in the "NDP universe" are going to be few and far between, but are more prevalent among NDP voters, believe it or not. Especially in communities with large Aboriginal populations. People don't always vote NDP because they're progressive voters, they may vote NDP for economic reasons.

[DL]

Obviously racism exists...but there is less of it among people in the NDP universe than in the rest of the population...and need i remind you that the US is VASTLY more racist than Canada and they elected a black man as president. Oh an btw - how is it that Calgary of all places has a mayor who is a Muslim South Asian?

Relationships between White people and Native people in northern Quebec and Ontario are close of Deep South ones.

Yes, I seem to recall that the BQ incumbent in Abitibi-Baie James told local media that Romeo Saganash could never be elected because he was aboriginal...then Saganash beat him by a huge margin.

Anyways this all started when i disagreed with the assertion that people in Northern Ontario were too racist to vote for the NDP if it was led by a South Asian. Let's look at BC - for most of the last 20 years the riding of Yale-Lillooet later called Fraser-Nicola (a primary resource based seat in the BC interior much like seats in northern Ontario) has elected an Indo-Canadian NDP MLA named Harry Lali. Why would miners and forestry workers in the BC interior be willing to vote for a Sikh but supposedly those living in northern Ontario would not?

[Hatman 🍁]

I could see an Indo Canadian winning a seat in Northern Ontario if they have enough local popularity, absolutely. The issue is with having an Indo Canadian leader. Especially one with a turban and a long beard like Jagmeet. He has no connections to the communities in the north, so it would be hard for him to overcome the cultural/racial barriers people would have.

[DL]

He has no connections to the communities in the north, so it would be hard for him to overcome the cultural/racial barriers people would have.

What "connections" does Kathleen Wynne have to "communities in the north"? She is a patrician from north Toronto! and ironically the Ontario NDP did better in northern Ontario when led by a patrician from Toronto (Bob Rae) and by a woman from Hamilton - than it ever did when led by Howard Hampton who actually did have connections to communities in the north!

PS: Take a look at Tim Uppal the Conservative MP for the very white riding of Edmonton-Sherwood Park - i guess those rightwing rednecks in Alberta don't mind voting for a turban wearing bearded Sikh either!

http://www.timuppal.ca/

[Hatman 🍁]

He has no connections to the communities in the north, so it would be hard for him to overcome the cultural/racial barriers people would have.

What "connections" does Kathleen Wynne have to "communities in the north"? She is a patrician from north Toronto! and ironically the Ontario NDP did better in northern Ontario when led by a patrician from Toronto (Bob Rae) and by a woman from Hamilton - than it ever did when led by Howard Hampton who actually did have connections to communities in the north!

PS: Take a look at Tim Uppal the Conservative MP for the very white riding of Edmonton-Sherwood Park - i guess those rightwing rednecks in Alberta don't mind voting for a turban wearing bearded Sikh either!

http://www.timuppal.ca/

First of all, Wynne is not a visible minority, so she is less alien to people than someone like Jagmeet would be. Yes, she's a lesbian, but we've already discussed how homophobia is less prevalent than racism in Ontario (especially in the north). Now, Southwestern Ontario is another matter...

Secondly, with Uppal, he faced a serious challenge in both elections from an independent conservative. It's actually a great example of racism in elections. The independent almost beat Uppal in 2008. You think that would've happened if Uppal didn't wear a turban?

Ignoring that racism exists is a big reason why it's such a problem still in society. As soon as people can realize its prevalent, the quicker we can work on fighting to eradicate it.

[DC Al Fine]

As an aside;

What was the story with the Uppal/Ford elections? Was there a legitimate ideological difference between the two or was Ford the sore loser of a nomination contest?

[Hatman 🍁]

As an aside;

What was the story with the Uppal/Ford elections? Was there a legitimate ideological difference between the two or was Ford the sore loser of a nomination contest?

I think Ford was the sore loser of a nomination race, more than anything. The 2008 poll map of the riding shows a stark voting pattern between Sherwood Park/Ft Saskatchewan backing Ford and the Edmonton part of the riding voting for Uppal.

[King of Kensington]

First of all, Wynne is not a visible minority, so she is less alien to people than someone like Jagmeet would be. Yes, she's a lesbian, but we've already discussed how homophobia is less prevalent than racism in Ontario (especially in the north). Now, Southwestern Ontario is another matter...

Northern Ontario is more racist than it is homophobic but Southwestern Ontario is more homophobic than it is racist?

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How do quickly work on fighting to eradicate racism if we say we should be skeptical of a Singh leadership run because the North would never vote for a Sikh from the GTA?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where's the evidence that the comparatively poor Liberal performance in SW Ontario last year had anything to do with Wynne's sexuality? Or are we just listing off stereotypes and confusing them with reality?

[Hatman 🍁]

First of all, Wynne is not a visible minority, so she is less alien to people than someone like Jagmeet would be. Yes, she's a lesbian, but we've already discussed how homophobia is less prevalent than racism in Ontario (especially in the north). Now, Southwestern Ontario is another matter...

Northern Ontario is more racist than it is homophobic but Southwestern Ontario is more homophobic than it is racist?

I never said that SW Ontario wasn't also racist. I'm not sure if it is or not. It's a very socially conservative area, and I'm sure some of those big swings against the Liberals came because of Wynne's sexuality.

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How do quickly work on fighting to eradicate racism if we say we should be skeptical of a Singh leadership run because the North would never vote for a Sikh from the GTA?
[/quote]

I'm not saying he shouldn't run, I'm just suggesting that racism would be an obstacle for his leadership.

Where's the evidence that the comparatively poor Liberal performance in SW Ontario last year had anything to do with Wynne's sexuality? Or are we just listing off stereotypes and confusing them with reality?

It's speculation on my part, to be honest (based on the fact that it is the most SoCon part of the province). Of course, there's other factors at hand. It's kind of like Obama and Appalachia.

[Boston Bread]

Where's the evidence that the comparatively poor Liberal performance in SW Ontario last year had anything to do with Wynne's sexuality? Or are we just listing off stereotypes and confusing them with reality?

The liberal decline has more to do with the decline of manufacturing since 2003. This accounted for the large swing to the NDP, especially in urban areas. The rural swings to PC are not out of place with what happened in other rural parts of southern Ontario. The vast majority of rural formerly liberal voters who would refuse to vote for an LGBT leader jumped ship in 2011, a campaign where the tory campaign which featured social conservatism and where a general backlash against the Liberals outside the GTA took place. I see no evidence that Wynne's sexuality had a significant electoral impact. The focus was on jobs and the economy, which played against Liberals more so in the SW than any other part of the province.
I know the tri-cities area where I live is a major exception to the economic downturn in the SW, so it's not surprising the region had one of the largest liberal swings. And the tri-cities area have a lot of mennonites and German-Canadians, not the most socially liberal group.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not talking about the tri cities area, I'm talking about the "deep southwest".

Relevant map:

Not saying her sexuality was the #1 issue for the vote switch, but you'd be naive to think no one was turned off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another relevant map:

[Boston Bread]

In 2014, those liberal losses in SW were virtually all to the NDP (only riding where Tories did better than 2011 was BGOS). Don't these so-cons know the NDP is equally pro-LGBT? I'd like an explanation on why the NDP is now all of a sudden the vehicle for a so-con backlash against Wynne. A reason other than the economy, which I outlined in my previous post.