Canadian by-elections, 2015

[King of Kensington]

and while Oshawa was once considered a separate city from Toronto - its now basically been absorbed by Toronto and is most made up of suburban commuters.

Nope.  Two-thirds of Oshawa workers commute to Oshawa or neighboring Whitby and Clarington.

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Yes - but there aren't that many "low income" 905 seats.  And the 905 also includes rapidly growing York Region which is quite affluent.  Overall the 416 has more winnable seats for the NDP.  Toronto is also crucial.  Seats like York South-Weston, most of Scarborough etc. and yes, Davenport.  Harris got 8 out of 22 seats in Toronto in 1999, and the NDP will need more than that to form a majority government.

I'm not sure what the strategists were thinking.  While it seems pretty evident that sacrificing a few Toronto seats was worth it, I had no idea if they thought it would pay off in the outer 416 or if they were just simply focused elsewhere in the province.

Perhaps they made a fundamental error in thinking that because a core-periphery divide exists in municipal politics, ticking off the "wine sipping Toronto elites" would help.  It didn't.  This core-periphery divide doesn't really translate into provincial politics.

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The majority of Torontonians don't live in SFHs.  Not sure what your definition of "super rich" is.

[Boston Bread]

San Francisco is super-upscale in its cost and yet it's more consistently left-wing than Toronto all things considered. Rising prices will cause people earning middle class incomes to feel poor and with the right push they'll eventually start voting that way, too. The NDP isn't lost completely in gentrifying areas like Trinity-Spadina.

[adma]

The NDP actually lost ground in York South-Weston and throughout Scarborough in 2014.  The "wine-sipping Toronto elitists" critique rang hollow because it wasn't only "elite" Torontonians that rejected them.  The pocketbook populist strategy didn't resonate among working class Torontonians either.  Not to mention Davenport - a seat they lost - is a pretty low income riding.

Though one might argue re the lost ground in YSW that the NDP vote was already "overleveraged" in both 2007 and 2011, first because of Paul Ferreira's byelected incumbency and then because of "Ferreira was robbed" sentiment--by 2014, that sentiment was seeping away.

And it's worth noting with Davenport that the NDP lost most of its ground in the gentrifying south--in the north, it was actually more or less flat (though still behind the Grits, as per tradition)

[Hatman 🍁]

Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Oshawa are part of the Greater Toronto Area and are essentially suburban Toronto (especially the former). Back in 1963 - all of what is now Mississauga, Brampton and York Region was just farmers fields and the entire Toronto metropolitan area was contained in what is now the City of Toronto but was then Metro Toronto made up of six boroughs...with the explosive growth of Toronto, the city has overflowed well beyond its boundaries and so a place like Bramalea-Gore Malton is basically an overflow of northern Etobicoke - and while Oshawa was once considered a separate city from Toronto - its now basically been absorbed by Toronto and is most made up of suburban commuters.

In the long run the suburban belt around Toronto is where almost all the population growth will be concentrated and where new seats will be created in every future redistribution...if the NDP is ever to take power in Ontario - it really won't be about winning back a couple of seats in downtown Toronto. It will be about winning new burgeoning suburban seats like Bramalea-Gore-Malton which are low income and heavily ethnic. Now that the average single family home in the old City of Toronto sells for about a million dollars - the downtown ridings are fast becoming a very wealthy enclave that will likely swing to the right politically since only super rich people will be able to afford to live there.

Oshawa is in the GTA yes, but it is its own CMA, probably because as KoK mentioned, most of its commuters work in the Oshawa area.

I think most of the 905 will remain near impossible for the NDP. For the NDP to form government some day, it needs to form a coalition of voters that exclude most of the 905. (Of course, Hamilton, Niagara, Brampton and Oshawa should all be targets, but everything else is pretty much a write off). I know this region is high growth, but the majority of the growth will never be voters attracted to the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Yes.  In 1990 the NDP formed government with no seats in Brampton.  Brampton is much bigger now and it's a place where the NDP would need to win more seats.  So yes, it matters more than in 1990, but as hatman says, a winning coalition excludes most of the 905 belt.

There are very few ridings that can actually be described as "fast growing" and "low income."  More typical of 905 fast-growth is found in York and Halton regions - not exactly NDP territory.

[lilTommy]

Yes.  In 1990 the NDP formed government with no seats in Brampton.  Brampton is much bigger now and it's a place where the NDP would need to win more seats.  So yes, it matters more than in 1990, but as hatman says, a winning coalition excludes most of the 905 belt.

There are very few ridings that can actually be described as "fast growing" and "low income."  More typical of 905 fast-growth is found in York and Halton regions - not exactly NDP territory.

The NDP could think tactically; target those older, working class 905 ridings in Durham, a region they have held while in 90, Oshawa is the beach head and the lowest hanging fruit there. Target riding's like Brampton East and North (new ones) were they came in second in Prov election where they have built up some base in the South Asian community. 
Anything outside those would be taking in a wave, probably have to have a strong locally known candidates in place. The way the NDP will win is by focusing in SWON, North and urban areas. Etobicoke North, York West, Scarb North, Centre, SW... are the only demographically TO riding's the NDP has a shot at but the Liberals have to collapse, I don't see the DT out of reach, it just means falling back in that some "champagne socialist" policies. To win the NDP basically has to run two campaigns, one for Toronto/urban seats (more champagn socialist, big idea, progressive outright) and one for the rest (working class, meat'n potatoes, what's in it for me policies)

[Hatman 🍁]

The new map is going to make it that much more difficult to win without the 905 of course

[adma]

Yes.  In 1990 the NDP formed government with no seats in Brampton.  Brampton is much bigger now and it's a place where the NDP would need to win more seats.  So yes, it matters more than in 1990, but as hatman says, a winning coalition excludes most of the 905 belt.

Though the NDP *nearly* won both 1990-era Brampton seats--in fact, if the riding division were east-west rather than north-south, the NDP would have won a hypothetical "Brampton East" (i.e. the Bramalea part).

And here's food for thought worth considering re growth and demographic changes: the parts of BGM which most markedly fueled Jagmeet Singh's victory (and the parts of Brampton-Springdale which went for Gurpreet Dhillon provincially in 2014) *did not exist* in 2010.  It was still farm country and fields...

[King of Kensington]

Always the optimist!  But seriously, could the NDP really win more than half a dozen seats in the 905 belt?

[lilTommy]

Always the optimist!  But seriously, could the NDP really win more than half a dozen seats in the 905 belt?

They already have won two; and came in second in another... so that's already halfway there during a mixed to poor showing election (Provincial 14')

[adma]

Trouble is, aside from JagmeetSinghLand and Oshawa, the party has virtually no infrastructure, real or potentially supportive municipal office holders et al, to wheedle 905 victories out of...

[lilTommy]

Trouble is, aside from JagmeetSinghLand and Oshawa, the party has virtually no infrastructure, real or potentially supportive municipal office holders et al, to wheedle 905 victories out of...

Not entirely correct; Dhillon, who can in second in Brampton-Springdale is now on Brampton Council. There are a number of other NDP members in the 905 in governments:
Joanne Dies - Ajax city council
Nester Pidwerbecki - Regional/City Councillor, Oshawa
Colleen Jordan - Ajax Regional Councillor

Former municipal politicians:
Evelyn Buck - Aurora city council
Eric Carter - Brampton Council

That was just using Wikipedia! I'm sure there are others, I was looking at GTA 905 (so Peel, Halton, York and Durham)

[King of Kensington]

Let me put it this way: in a realistic "winning government" scenario you'd probably have at least twice as many seats in Toronto than in the 905 suburbs - in spite of the fast growth of the 905.

[King of Kensington]

Not entirely correct; Dhillon, who can in second in Brampton-Springdale is now on Brampton Council. There are a number of other NDP members in the 905 in governments:
Joanne Dies - Ajax city council
Nester Pidwerbecki - Regional/City Councillor, Oshawa
Colleen Jordan - Ajax Regional Councillor

Former municipal politicians:
Evelyn Buck - Aurora city council
Eric Carter - Brampton Council

That was just using Wikipedia! I'm sure there are others, I was looking at GTA 905 (so Peel, Halton, York and Durham)

Forget Aurora - it's a very affluent suburb/exurb filled with McMansions and "estates." 

Ajax - maybe.  The NDP did do well in Durham Region in 1990. 

[adma]

Forget Aurora - it's a very affluent suburb/exurb filled with McMansions and "estates." 

And remember that Evelyn Buck was more of a holdover from pre-exurbia pre-Magna days when the NDP was more of a viable proposition in much of York Region.  (Though given how she latterly turned that "holdoverness" to her blog-fueled Council-maverick advantage, maybe 905 councils could use a few more Evelyn Bucks.)

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And Ajax Mayor Steve Parrish is a political free-agent who strikes a "progressive-amenable" tone more often than not.

Unfortunately, above the municipal level, there's been a recent pattern of the provincial and federal NDP basically "throwing" Ajax--rather notoriously in 2011, vs the Holland-vs-Alexander LibCon deathmatch, the fed NDP (not knowing the Orange Crush was going to happen, of course) fielded what was basically a name-on-the-ballot who was on vacation for much of the campaign...

[Krago]

Here's the results map from the recent Sudbury by-election.



And the results from 2014 general election, for comparison.




And John C. Turmel finally won a poll in a by-election!  I'm 99.99% certain it is an error (the NDP is listed as having three votes in Poll 86), but a win's a win!

http://www.elections.on.ca/NR/rdonlyres/7849B894-4C4F-490E-9E8C-271BCF0C0D4D/6461/F0244ED088.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Noticeable decline in NDP strength in the area where Cimino was a city councillor.

[Hatman 🍁]

My suspicions confirmed:

[adma]

And John C. Turmel finally won a poll in a by-election!  I'm 99.99% certain it is an error (the NDP is listed as having three votes in Poll 86), but a win's a win!

Yeah, I remember that in the live tallies that evening, Turmel made a mysterious "jump" from the back of the pack--that must be why.

Agree; likely tabulation error.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hopefully it's fixed when the official results are released. For the record I "fixed" it in my map

[MaxQue]

A by-election will be held in Jean-Talon, QC (it's in Quebec City) after Yves Bolduc, the Education minister resigned to return to medecine.

He was the last Health minister of Jean Charest, but he was replaced by the "Fat Doctor" when Couillard won. He was woefully incompentent as an Education minister and often ended in news for saying silly or dumb things.

He got a 215000$ bonus for taking 1500 patients as a family doctor while he was an opposition MNA, he dropped them a few months later to return to Cabinet and refused to refund the bonus.

He announced they considered raising university fees, before changing his mind on the same day.

About cuts in funding to schools, he suggested to schools to cut in school librairies, because "no kid will die because of it".

And, the last thing, which caused his downfall. A school decided to do a strip search of a teen female student because they were suspecting her of selling drugs, that made a scandal, but the minister said than "it is allowed, as long it's done very respectfully". Prime Minister overturned him and banned it a few days later.

[DL]

A by-election will be held in Jean-Talon, QC (it's in Quebec City) after Yves Bolduc, the Education minister resigned to return to medecine.

Interestingly Jean Talon is a 98% francophone riding where the wealthy elites of Quebec City (sort of the equivalent of Outremont)  live that has NEVER gone anything but Liberal. The PQ has come close a couple of time when they were sweeping the province but they have never ever won it.

[adma]

Sort of like the Quebec City version of St. Paul's, I suppose.

[MaxQue]

Three possible by-elections in PEI as three MLAs resigned on the day the new Premier swore in.

Robert Ghiz, former Premier (Charlottetown-Brighton)
Wes Sheridan, former Finance Minister (Kensington-Malpeque)
Robert Vessey, backbencher, new Chief of Staff of Premier MacLauchlan, resigned to allow him to run (York-Oyster Bed)

[Hatman 🍁]

Will they even bother, considering their next election is in the Fall? Or perhaps they will move the election to next year to avoid a conflict with the federal election.