Canadian by-elections, 2015

[MaxQue]

Will they even bother, considering their next election is in the Fall? Or perhaps they will move the election to next year to avoid a conflict with the federal election.

Well, I don't think than the Premier can afford being out of the Assembly until fall.

[MaxQue]

Just a bump to remind people than Richelieu by-election, in Quebec is today. PQ is defending.

[Hatman 🍁]

Richelieu profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/03/provincial-by-election-in-richelieu.html

[Poirot]

First polls counted are in. PQ 39%, CAQ 31%, PLQ 21%.
As expected the fight is between PQ and CAQ for the win.

[Poirot]

CAQ and PQ at about 35% with 10 votes difference between the two.

[Poirot]

With more than 25% of polling stations counted, PQ leads by 84 votes (36% to 34%).

[Poirot]

At halfway, it's 35%-33%-24%. PQ leads by around 200 votes.

[Poirot]

It's almost a tie with around 30 vote difference.

[Poirot]

PQ's lead has increased to over 200 votes. Getting near the end now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, closer than expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

PQ leads by 283 votes with 15 polls left. Looks like it will be enough.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

PQ: 36.0% (-3.0%)
CAQ: 32.5% (+5.7%)
PLQ: 24.9% (-0.7%)
QS: 2.7% (-2.6%)
PVQ: 1.7% (+0.6%)
ON: 1.6% (+0.2%)
PCQ: 0.5% (-0.2%)
EA: 0.1%

Swing: 4.4% (PQ to CAQ)

[Hatman 🍁]

The MLA for Dartmouth South has died.

[DL]

Well Dartmouth South was a reasonably solid NDP seat prior to the 2013 Liberal landslide in Nova Scotia - interesting to see if the NDP can win it back...it could be an opportunity for a leadership candidate who is not currently in caucus.

[DC Al Fine]

Well Dartmouth South was a reasonably solid NDP seat prior to the 2013 Liberal landslide in Nova Scotia - interesting to see if the NDP can win it back...it could be an opportunity for a leadership candidate who is not currently in caucus.

Don't think so. Here's the most recent poll with the change since the last election in brackets.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 58% (+12)
PC:  20% (-6)
NDP: 18% (-9)
Green: 4% (+3)

The NDP lost by 13 points last time. Add on the swing and that's a hell of a deficit to overcome.

[DL]

Yes but a byelection is still chance for people to register a protest vote and the NS government has declared war on public service employees recently...a lot would depend on the candidate and timing of thje byelection - word is that the NS government is about to bring in a brutal budget that will be very unpopular

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are going to have to get really unpopular in a hurry for the NDP to win it. Don't think that will happen, they're still in their honeymoon period. Even if the budget is unpopular, you still have to wait for its effects to be felt by the public before critical mass has been achieved to really hurt the Liberals.

[DL]

Funny things happen in byelections - especially when the byelection in question is in a seat that is historically won by another party. In April 2004 the Ontario Liberals were six months into their first mandate and were riding high in the polls - the Ontario NDP had lost official party status and was in disarray. In October 2003 the Liberals had won the historically NDP seat of Hamilton East for the third time in a row by a wide margin. Six months later the Liberal MPP died suddenly. Given that Ontario liberal support was way up even from their landslide election and the NDP was way down - Hamilton East ought to have been an easy Liberal hold - instead the NDP candidate Andrea Horwath not only won the byelection, but won it by a 2 to 1 margin! 

[Hatman 🍁]

Except Dartmouth is not an historically working class NDP city like Hamilton is. Hamilton East might be the most natural NDP district in the province. Meanwhile, the NDP has only been relevant in Nova Scotia (outside Cape Breton) since the late 1990s. And Dartmouth isn't exactly the same as Hamilton. It's mostly suburban, though certainly not as well of as a typical 905 suburb.

[the506]

In Toronto terms, Dartmouth would be something like Weston. An old-style town centre completely usurped by 50s-60s suburbia.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP has finally nominated a candidate in The Pas (Amanda Lathlin), now that the leadership mess is over with.  The by-election has to be held before May 16 (exactly one year after the seat became vacant).

Whoever wins will probably serve for a term of less than the period of time the riding was vacant, as the general election will be held in April 2016

[136or142]

The NDP has finally nominated a candidate in The Pas (Amanda Lathlin), now that the leadership mess is over with.  The by-election has to be held before May 16 (exactly one year after the seat became vacant).

Whoever wins will probably serve for a term of less than the period of time the riding was vacant, as the general election will be held in April 2016

I assume she is the daughter of Oscar Lathlin?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, he was the MLA from 1990 to 2008, when he died. There was a by-election in 2009 where Frank Whitehead won, and he served until last year.

[DC Al Fine]

Except Dartmouth is not an historically working class NDP city like Hamilton is. Hamilton East might be the most natural NDP district in the province. Meanwhile, the NDP has only been relevant in Nova Scotia (outside Cape Breton) since the late 1990s. And Dartmouth isn't exactly the same as Hamilton. It's mostly suburban, though certainly not as well of as a typical 905 suburb.

To add to what Hatman said, Darmouth South is one of the better off parts of Dartmouth. Besides, the McNeil government is polling in the mid 50's. I could see an NDP pickup in one of the Cole Harbour ridings or Darmouth North which is working class, but went Liberal because the NDP MLA was corrupt, but I don't see any reason for a massive swing in some random middle class riding right now.

[trebor204]

By-Elections called for The Pas in Manitoba for April 21th, a riding that has been vacant for 11 months. The NDP won the previous elections with over 65% of the vote.

The NDP candidate is Amanda Lathlin (daughter of form MLA, Oscar Lathlin), the Progressive Conservative hopeful is Jacob Nasekapow and the Liberal candidate is Inez Vystrcil-Spence

The NDP candidate won the nomination by a coin toss.