Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

And now the PCs (17/59):

PC: 400
NDP: 364
Lib: 168

[trebor204]

NDP moving ahead

27 Polls

NDP - 561
PC - 509
LIB - 219

[trebor204]

and improving their lead

NDP 880 (50.7%)
PC 601
LIB 256

40/59 Polls

[DL]

Looks like an NDP landslide in The Pas -

51/59 polls

Lathlin NDP 1,498
Nasekapow PC 793
Vestrcil-Spence Lib 364

In these northern seats the first polls to report are often from the main town which has a large non-native population and more evenly split...the reserves tend to report later and often go NDP by lopsided margins (ie: 203 to 7)

[trebor204]

55/56 Polls (Somehow they reduce the number of polls from 59 to 56)

NDP - 1530 (56.7%)
PC - 803
LIB - 366

Turnout - 21.75%

[trebor204]

Finals Results All 56 Polls

NDP - 1557 (56.8%)
PC - 817
LIB - 369

Turnout - 22.1%

[Boston Bread]

How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

[Hatman 🍁]

How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

The Pas is not an urban riding

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a bad result for the NDP, considering. We're not seeing Newfoundland style swings quite yet. Turnout was 22%, so perhaps a lot of would-be NDP voters stayed home. Turnout in The Pas was the lowest in the province in 2011 at 30%, so even though 22% is terrible, it's not a huge decrease!

Here are the swings:

NDP: 56.8% (-16.8%)
PC: 29.8% (+6.2%)
Lib: 13.5% (+10.6%)

2 party swing: 11.5% (NDP to PC)

[136or142]

I'd say the decline in the NDP vote share is pretty normal for a first time candidate replacing a popular longtime incumbent, but Frank Whitehead hadn't been an MLA for all that long.

The rather slight increase in the P.C vote share and the larger increase for the Liberals pretty much confirm the province wide polls.

[DC Al Fine]

How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

The Pas is not an urban riding

There are urban, suburban, rural and arse end of nowhere ridings. The Pas is the latter.

[136or142]

So much for the Greens star candidate in Vancouver East.

Former B.C. NDP candidate Matt Toner out of race for Green nomination in Vancouver

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Former+candidate+Matt+Toner+race+Green+nomination+Vancouver/10995445/story.html

[Boston Bread]

How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

The Pas is not an urban riding

For some reason I thought The Pas was in Winnipeg at the time.

[Hatman 🍁]

You might be thinking of The Maples.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre confirms Peterborough remains vacant till dissolution.

[trebor204]

Elections Canada has called 3 by-elections for Ottawa West-Nepean, Sudbury, Peterborough by-elections on Oct. 19. This is the same day as the federal election.
Expect the by-elections to be cancelled once the writ for the federal election has been called.

Surprised that it was Elections Canada that called for the by-elections and not the Prime Minister.
The by-elections will be the last to use the current boundaries.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/byelections-called-for-3-ontario-ridings-oct-19-same-day-as-planned-federal-vote-1.2356490

[Hatman 🍁]

A few days late now, but provincial by-elections have been called for June 8 in Jean-Talon and Chauveau in Quebec.

[Poirot]

Jean-Talon has been Liberal since its creation and the PLQ is expected to hold it. The PLQ candidate is Sébastien Proulx. He was the member of National Assembly for Trois-Rivières representing the ADQ during the period the ADQ was the official opposition. He was the House leader for the opposition. Before running in the by-election he was an adviser to Couillard.

Chauveau was vacated by Gérard Deltell because he will run for the federal Conservatives. Last election he won with 52% to 30% for the PLQ. The race is between these two parties. They both have women journalist as candidates. For the CAQ it's Jocelyne Cazin. I think she is retired from journalism. She was living in the Laurentians (north of Montreal) so attacked as parachuted in the riding.

The PLQ is running Véronyque Tremblay, she lives in the riding. She was still active in media, working at the most popular radio station in Quebec City prior to jumping to politics a few weeks ago.

During advance voting, 15% of people already voted in Jean-Talon and 14% in Chauveau.       

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for that Poirot.

Here are my profiles: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/06/quebec-by-elections-today.html


Polls close at 8.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jean-Talon (22/155)

PLQ: 392
PQ: 317
CAQ: 180
QS: 110

Chauveau (24/184)

PLQ: 713
CAQ: 703
PQ: 354
PQC: 104 !
QS 74

[Boston Bread]

PLQ lead is growing in Chauveau. Unexpected.
79/184 reporting, PLQ has 3041 - 2738 vote lead

[Poirot]

The Q-Conservative party candidate in Chauveau is the leader. I think he is regurlay interviewed by some Quebec city radio stations. One host wrote Why not vote for him?:

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2015/06/01/chauveau--pourquoi-pas-adrien-pouliot

The latest CROP poll had for the Quebec city region, PLQ 37%, CAQ 27%, PQ 23%.
  

[RogueBeaver]

Rad-Can projects PLQ win in Jean-Talon. Chauveau also looking good for them.

[MaxQue]

Would be great if the terrible "journalist" named Jocelyne Cazin lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chauveau (100/184)

PLQ: 4035
CAQ: 3601
PQ: 1887
PCQ: 558
QS: 426

Jean-Talon (81/155)

PLQ: 3218
PQ: 2271
CAQ: 1164
QS: 668