Canadian by-elections, 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like you'll get your wish, Max.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chauveau (123/184)

PLQ: 5057
CAQ: 4372
PQ: 2272
PCQ: 661
QS: 515

[Poirot]

Chauveau was expected to be a close CAQ-PLQ battle. Lower turnout of a by-election probably hurts CAQ too and PLQ found a good candidate.

Must be one of the strongest showing for the Quebec conservative party in an election.

[RogueBeaver]

Rad-Can projects PLQ win in Chauveau.

[Boston Bread]

Do many Quebecers vote for the governing party so their riding can reap the benefits, as Sudbury did?

[Hatman 🍁]

Chauveau was expected to be a close CAQ-PLQ battle. Lower turnout of a by-election probably hurts CAQ too and PLQ found a good candidate.

Maybe the most committed voters in Quebec are Liberals. After all, they destroyed in the advance polls in 2014.

[Poirot]

I don't know if it was a factor for voters but governments make the case it's easier to get something done when you are on the side of power. In Chauveau's case I know the govermnent said they could deliver on a promise of a superclinic and more doctors.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. Isn't that like extortion?

[MaxQue]

Chauveau, turnout 43.11%

Véronyque Tremblay (PLQ) 10330 votes (41.32%) (+11.41)
Jocelyne Cazin (CAQ) 8392 votes (33.57%) (-18.84)
Sébastien Couture (PQ) 3844 votes (15.38%) (+3.16)
Adrien Pouliot (Conservative) 1239 votes (4.96%) (+3.91)
Marjolaine Bouchard (QS) 863 votes (3.45%) (-0.29)
Frank Malenfant (Parti des sans parti - "Without-party people Party") 171 votes (0.68%)
Stéphanie Grimard (ON) 125 votes (0.50%) (-0.17)
Manuel Mathieu (Autonomist Team) 34 votes (0.14%)


Jean-Talon, turnout 43.61%

Sébastien Proulx (PLQ) 8214 votes (41.76%) (-2.74)
Clément Laberge (PQ) 5894 votes (29.97%) (+7.49)
Alain Fecteau (CAQ) 2717 votes (13.81%) (-6.75)
Amélie Boisvert (QS) 1503 votes (7.64%) (-1.41)
Sol Zanetti (ON) 474 votes (2.41%) (+0.9)
Élodie Boisjoly-Dubreuil (Green) 472 votes (2.40%)
Sylvain Rancourt (Conservative) 236 votes (1.20%) (+0.61)
Sylvain Drolet (Parti des sans parti - "Without-party people Party") 76 votes (0.39%)
Stéphane Pouleur (Autonomist Team) 55 votes (0.28%)
Grégoire Bonneau-Fortier (Independentist Party) 27 votes (0.14%) (-0.05)

[Hatman 🍁]

Terrible night for the CAQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two party swings:

Jean-Talon: 5.12% from PLQ to PQ (hold)
Chauveau: 15.11% from CAQ to PLQ (gain)

[DL]

Considering that these byelections were held soon after PKP became leader at a time when the PQ new leader bounce ought to be at its height PLUS the byelections were right splat in the middle of an orgy of nostalgia and positive press about the the Quebec nationalist movement due to the death of Jacques Parizeau...the PQ results in these two ridings is very very anemic.

[MaxQue]

Cazin blames "media being too hard on her" (especially on the fact she was from Montreal area), Deltell not involving in her campaign and electors not reading CAQ program as reasons for her defeat.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201506/09/01-4876601-election-dans-chauveau-cazin-critique-deltell-et-les-medias.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_les-plus-populaires-actualites_article_ECRAN1POS3

[Hatman 🍁]

Considering that these byelections were held soon after PKP became leader at a time when the PQ new leader bounce ought to be at its height PLUS the byelections were right splat in the middle of an orgy of nostalgia and positive press about the the Quebec nationalist movement due to the death of Jacques Parizeau...the PQ results in these two ridings is very very anemic.

I can't imagine they tried very hard in either seat, and they still made gains. Though, not much in Jean-Talon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's something we missed, on May 22 former New Brunswick Premier David Alward resigned his Carleton seat. No by-election has been set yet.

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia by-election results can be viewed here, starting at 8pm Atlantic time tomorrow.

I still predict holds in all three seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm predicting Liberal wins in all three.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/07/three-nova-scotia-provincial-by.html

[DC Al Fine]

Since the polls close in 20 min

And it appears I haven't missed much since I was away. I was hoping for another major shift like at the end of June.

Welcome back!  So tell us, what's going to happen in the three Nova Scotia provincial by-elections tomorrow?

The Liberals had an extended honeymoon with massive leads, but this recently decreased with their recent austerity budget. The province's finances chronically terrible and the government mishandled cuts to film subsidies. The polls are more or less match the last election results.

Dartmouth South should be an easy Liberal hold. A no-name Liberal won it comfortably last time, and there are no local factors at play.

The more interesting races are in Cape Breton Centre and Sydney-Whitney Pier. Both seats were barely saved by the NDP, in large part due to popular incumbents who have since retired. The Liberals would normally have been expected to pick up both seats but the seats in questions are the only bastions of NDP tribalism* in Nova Scotia and the Liberals have faltered in the polls recently. Both seats are tossups.

Success for the Liberals would be gaining either or both of the Cape Breton seats. The NDP would call it a success if they hold onto both of their seats convincingly. It would be a resounding success for them if they won Dartmouth South. The Tories will call it a win if they place second in Dartmouth South

*The kind of "I vote _____ because my father and his father voted _____" loyalty that the Tories and Liberals enjoy but the NDP almost never does.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm predicting Liberal wins in all three.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/07/three-nova-scotia-provincial-by.html

Watch the Liberals pick up only one seat and us both be wrong

[136or142]

I predict the NDP will win all 3 and you all know my track record of predictions.

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre begins with an NDP lead.

81-60-10 with 1/38 polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cape Breton Centre begins with an NDP lead.

81-60-10 with 1/38 polls.

Great news! The NDP didnt win a majority of votes in many polls in 2013.

[MaxQue]

Liberals took a lead in CB Centre by 34 votes and in Sydney by 36 votes.

But in Dartmouth, NDP leads by 2 votes over PC. Liberals 3rd.

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre: 99 votes Liberal lead.
Sydney: 170 votes Liberal lead.

Dartmouth: 11 votes Liberal lead.

[DC Al Fine]

Ugh, if the NDP pulls Dartmouth South off, I could get all three races wrong