Canadian by-elections, 2015
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:49:05 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian by-elections, 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 23
Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2015  (Read 60635 times)
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: August 31, 2015, 04:17:36 PM »

What better time!... but this would be very interesting to try and read; using 2011 federal figures both would go NPDQ correct? in Particular Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne looks to be a good fit for the NDP, QS tends to poll over 10% and they would not be the happiest with a NPDQ running. I'm actually really hopeful that they do run candidates!
Logged
Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: August 31, 2015, 10:54:13 PM »

What better time!... but this would be very interesting to try and read; using 2011 federal figures both would go NPDQ correct? in Particular Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne looks to be a good fit for the NDP, QS tends to poll over 10% and they would not be the happiest with a NPDQ running. I'm actually really hopeful that they do run candidates!

Transposing the results of the 2011 Federal Election onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings gives this result:

NDP 101
Lib 10
Cons 8
BQ 6

Fabre would be the NDP's 5th best seat: NDP 51% LIB 18% BQ 16% CONS 12% GRN 2%

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne would be the NDP's 18th best seat: NDP 46% BQ 22% LIB 20% CONS 8% GRN 3%
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: September 01, 2015, 07:00:32 AM »

Ok Krago, I think we'd all be a little curious how all the seats broke down.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: September 01, 2015, 07:43:38 AM »

I highly doubt the NDP would try to reestablish a provincial party in Quebec.  Though they disagree on separatism, we all know the NDP hierarchy supports Q.S.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: September 01, 2015, 07:59:32 AM »

Adam: I agree with you that NPDQ will probably remain paper, but QS isn't who Mulcair would support. Our party system is FUBAR as is...
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: September 01, 2015, 08:14:32 AM »

Adam: I agree with you that NPDQ will probably remain paper, but QS isn't who Mulcair would support. Our party system is FUBAR as is...

Mulcair says he votes for his preferred local candidate which at present is a Liberal.  I could see him voting for any party other than P.Q.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: September 01, 2015, 08:54:28 AM »

What is the point of the NDPQ right now, then? Pierre Ducasse is too important of an NDPer to be leading a dormant party, when he could be getting elected to the House of Commons right now, and possibly becoming a cabinet minister.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: September 01, 2015, 09:35:55 AM »

What is the point of the NDPQ right now, then? Pierre Ducasse is too important of an NDPer to be leading a dormant party, when he could be getting elected to the House of Commons right now, and possibly becoming a cabinet minister.

I think Ducasse might have hurt himself a little with some in the party by going after a sitting MP, a young aboriginal one at that... so I've been trying to read up (mostly on rabble) looks like he's been keeping a low profile since then, probably working the campaign.

The common thread I am seeing is that QS is largely occupying the space the NPDQ would (in particular on the island of Montreal). In particular its noted Francois David and Boulerice work very closely together (offices are in the same building at that)... QS being formed by a merger, I don't see it  being that far fetched that the NPDQ and QS could merge in some fashion. Is there a will though?
There is also the national question which is what broke apart the last NPDQ, but that was before the Sherbrooke Declaration, so that issue might not be as important as the above one. 
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: September 01, 2015, 10:08:14 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2015, 10:11:02 AM by Adam T »

What is the point of the NDPQ right now, then? Pierre Ducasse is too important of an NDPer to be leading a dormant party, when he could be getting elected to the House of Commons right now, and possibly becoming a cabinet minister.

There are already something like 10 Quebec M.Ps in the shadow cabinet.  I'd tend to think they'd rank ahead of a new M.P in terms of getting a cabinet position.

These are the NDP M.Ps in Quebec I think will get in a prospective Mulcair cabinet:
1.Romeo Saganash
2.Hoang Mai
3.Francoise Boivin
4.Nycole Turmel (could also keep her position as chief whip)
5.Helene LeBlanc
6.Helene Laverdiere
7.Thomas Mulcair Smiley
8.Guy Caron


Romeo Saganash is the only one to not have an important job in the NDP caucus.  In addition to Nycole Turmel as Chief Whip, Helene LeBlanc is not a shadow critic but she is the only opposition member to chair a parliamentary committee (or one of two maybe.)  The others are all pretty senior critics.

My guess is Alexandre Boulerice is the most likely M.P I haven't mentioned that could also get in the cabinet.

Romeo Saganash is also the only NDP M.P who ran against Mulcair for leader that isn't in the shadow cabinet.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: September 01, 2015, 11:37:12 AM »

Hoang Mai could well lose to Mendes. Boulerice is guaranteed a slot.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: September 01, 2015, 12:20:19 PM »

If the NDP formed government, the cabinet ministers they would appoint from Quebec would have to have some regional representation...i.e. someone from the Quebec City area, from the eastern townships etc..

I think Robert Aubin from Trois Rivieres could get something...not to mention some of the McGill students from 2011 who have really proven themselves, or someone like Philip Toone
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: September 01, 2015, 05:14:29 PM »

Hoang Mai could well lose to Mendes. Boulerice is guaranteed a slot.

People are overstating Mendes' chances based solely on the 2011 result. I think I've spoken enough about repressed NDP votes in perceived marginal races in 2011.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: September 01, 2015, 06:34:15 PM »

If the NDP formed government, the cabinet ministers they would appoint from Quebec would have to have some regional representation...i.e. someone from the Quebec City area, from the eastern townships etc..

I think Robert Aubin from Trois Rivieres could get something...not to mention some of the McGill students from 2011 who have really proven themselves, or someone like Philip Toone

Provincial regional concerns seem to be less of an issue for Federal cabinets.  Here in B.C, all the Conservative Ministers are from Greater Vancouver, even though, the Fraser Valley Part of Greater Vancouver aside, the strongest support base for the Conservative Party is in the Interior.

Similarly in Alberta, there are two ministers from Calgary (including Harper) and one from Edmonton, none from the smaller cities or the rural parts of the province.

Anyway
1.Romeo Saganash, Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, Northern Quebec
2.Hoang Mai, Brossard-La Prairie, Montreal suburb
3.Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, Outaouais
4.Nycole Turmel, Hull-Aylmer, Outaouais
5.Hélène LeBlanc, LaSalle-Emard, West End Montreal
6.Hélène Laverdière, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Downtown Montreal (I thought it was in the East End)
7.Guy Caron, Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, Eastern Quebec, I believe in the Eastern Townships.

I don't know how much more diverse regionally this could be. I suppose one from the Outaouais could be left out, as I've already said that Nycole Turmel could be left as the Chief Whip.

I don't know who this Mendes is. If Mai does lose, I hope he's well Hoang Cheesy
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: September 01, 2015, 07:31:05 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2015, 07:45:42 PM by Adam T »

Doesn't really fit here, but I don't want to start a separate thread for provincial elections for this single post.

So far, the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP have nominated 9 of 40 candidates for the upcoming election.

The Saskatchewan NDP have nominated candidates in 36 of the 53 ridings not held by NDP incumbents (NDP MLA John Nilson is retiring having served from 1995-2016.)


The Manitoba NDP recently nominated their first non incumbent.  They've renominated three incumbents, ironically 2 of those three are former members of the 'gang of five' (Andrew Swan and Jennifer Howard.)

I don't know if that really is ironic, but it's at least ironic as Alanis Morissette understood 'ironic' to mean, don't cha think?
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: September 02, 2015, 09:16:57 AM »

Braid previews Foothills.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: September 03, 2015, 12:37:47 PM »

Two By-elections today:

Alberta = Calgary-Foothills (NDP and WR dogfight)
Ontario = Simcoe North (likely to easily go PC, but who will be second? the NDP has been polling much better since the election, but this is not traditional or relatively favourable NDP territory. The Anti-hydro privatization has been hit hard by the NDP, but is that enough to move them to second or even competitive to win? maybe and unlikely?)

Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: September 03, 2015, 12:38:28 PM »

QC: PQ MNA and Chief Opposition Whip Marjolain Dufour (René Lévesque) resigning for health reasons effective next week.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: September 03, 2015, 12:45:08 PM »

QC: PQ MNA and Chief Opposition Whip Marjolain Dufour (René Lévesque) resigning for health reasons effective next week.

... that's three by-elections now in La Belle eh?
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: September 03, 2015, 12:55:47 PM »

Yep. Hopefully Couillard schedules them soon.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: September 03, 2015, 01:31:40 PM »

Two By-elections today:

Alberta = Calgary-Foothills (NDP and WR dogfight)
Ontario = Simcoe North (likely to easily go PC, but who will be second? the NDP has been polling much better since the election, but this is not traditional or relatively favourable NDP territory. The Anti-hydro privatization has been hit hard by the NDP, but is that enough to move them to second or even competitive to win? maybe and unlikely?)



In the 1990 Ontario election, there was no Simcoe North riding, but in the three Simcoe ridings, the NDP got around 37% of the vote in two of them, and won one of them.  So, that would be their semi recent high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1990
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: September 03, 2015, 02:10:09 PM »

Most of Simcoe North was in Simcoe East in 1990. NDP won 38% there, but lost.

Anyways, here is my profile of today's by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/09/provincial-by-elections-today.html
Logged
Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: September 03, 2015, 02:52:42 PM »

QC: PQ MNA and Chief Opposition Whip Marjolain Dufour (René Lévesque) resigning for health reasons effective next week.

... that's three by-elections now in La Belle eh?

René-Lévesque would be the NDP's 52nd best seat: NDP 51% BQ 34% CONS 10% LIB 3% GRN 2%

Also, it lies west of Sept-Îles - Pierre Ducasse's hometown - and 3/4 of the population resides within the federal riding of Manicouagan, where he ran in 2004 and 2006 (and tried for the NDP nomination this time).
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: September 03, 2015, 08:22:15 PM »

Simcoe North results here.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: September 03, 2015, 08:27:06 PM »

Oh goodness. John Turmel is running again.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: September 03, 2015, 08:33:48 PM »

They should project Brown the winner soon. Results close to '11. Kinda hoping the NDP would place 2nd...
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 23  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 11 queries.