Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Holmes]

Good turnout for a by-election.

[136or142]

Good turnout for a by-election.

Final results now in.  The 3rd advance poll is just as bad for the NDP as the second advance poll.  NDP end up slightly more than 12% behind Wild Rose.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/11.htm

Hatman, the only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Hawkesworth was an obviously better candidate than the lawyer who ran in the general election.  While he did have years of political experience, he is also a 'career politician' and a carpetbagger.

He also didn't end his elected career prior to this on a good note, having run a very poor campaign for mayor of Calgary and taking some shots at now Mayor Nenshi.

[136or142]

Calgary-Foothills by election results and general election results:

By election results, total votes 12717
Wild Rose: 4,877
N.D.P: 3,270
P.C: 2,746
Liberal: 791
Alb: 610
Green: 377
Other: 46

General election 17,761
P.C: 7,163
NDP: 5,748
Wild Rose: 3,216
Liberal: 1,271
Green: 363

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results for Calgary-Foothills:

Wildrose: 38.4% (+20.2)
NDP: 25.7% (-6.6)
PC: 21.6% (-18.7)
Liberal: 6.2% (-0.9)
AP: 4.8%
Green: 3.0% (+0.9)
Independent: 0.4%

Wildrose gain from PC (Two party swing: 19.5%)

Turnout: 39.5%

[adma]

Hatman, the only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Hawkesworth was an obviously better candidate than the lawyer who ran in the general election.  While he did have years of political experience, he is also a 'career politician' and a carpetbagger.

He also didn't end his elected career prior to this on a good note, having run a very poor campaign for mayor of Calgary and taking some shots at now Mayor Nenshi.

And FWIW, he was a parachute in Foothills.

[136or142]

Hatman, the only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Hawkesworth was an obviously better candidate than the lawyer who ran in the general election.  While he did have years of political experience, he is also a 'career politician' and a carpetbagger.

He also didn't end his elected career prior to this on a good note, having run a very poor campaign for mayor of Calgary and taking some shots at now Mayor Nenshi.

And FWIW, he was a parachute in Foothills.

Yes, I said he was a carpetbagger. Isn't that the same thing?

[Hatman 🍁]

[adma]

The result also say something about how benign the Wildrose option's become--and Brian Jean's turned out to be not all that unlikeable as opposition leaders go...

[DL]

Wildrose won a couple of seats in Calgary in 2012 under Danielle Smith so its not as if they have never won there before...I think Jean is still a liability for Wildrose who could be an obstacle to them ever winning

[adma]

He's a little like the Stelmach to Danielle Smith's Prentice...perhaps.

[RogueBeaver]

Another by-election here as Beauce-Sud Grit Robert Dutil resigns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you think CAQ could win it? I imagine Dutil had some personal popularity, as the are is quite conservative.

[RogueBeaver]

Doubtful.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doubtful.

Why?

[Poirot]

Do you think CAQ could win it? I imagine Dutil had some personal popularity, as the are is quite conservative.

The PLQ is quite conservative. Beauce I imagine is satisfied with streamlining of government. Always seems easy for PLQ to find good candidates.

[Poirot]

The PLQ candidate for Saint-Henri - Saint-Anne will be Dominique Anglade. She comes from the CAQ. She ran for CAQ in 2012 in Fabre and is a former party president.

[136or142]

Doesn't seem to have received much attention.  Provincial by election today in Carleton New Brunswick, to replace former P.C Leader and Premier David Alward.

NDP candidate is UNIFOR Local Vice President Greg Crouse, not Dominic Cardy.

[Poirot]

The four Quebec byelections will be held November 9th. It was announced October 7 so overlap the federal election.

Beauce-Sud
Fabre (western tip of Laval)
René-Lévesque (main town Baie-Comeau)
Saint-Henri - Sainte-Anne

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is my profile of the four provincial by-elections in Quebec:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/4-quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Doesn't seem to have received much attention.  Provincial by election today in Carleton New Brunswick, to replace former P.C Leader and Premier David Alward.

NDP candidate is UNIFOR Local Vice President Greg Crouse, not Dominic Cardy.

Didn't end up covering this, because I was too busy with the federal election, but for the sake of the community, here are the results (now a month later):

Prog. Cons.: 48.93% (-7.85)
Liberal:  33.48% (+11.28)
Green: 12.17% (+1.68)
NDP: 3.95% (-4.16)
PA: 1.48% (-0.95)

Turnout: 56.25 (-6.92)

Swing: PC to Lib: 9.56%

A little bit of foreshadowing of the federal election, though I reckon the Liberals probably won the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Beauce-Sud (3/169)
PLQ: 107
CAQ: 45
PQ: 33

Fabre: (2/158)
PLQ: 49
CAQ: 15
PQ: 9

Rene-Levesque (1/121)
PQ: 15
PLQ: 3
QS: 2

[Boston Bread]

It seems as if the Liberals are overperforming.

[Hatman 🍁]

Certainly in Rene-Levesque, but the PQ still leads there.

Beauce-Sud (24/169)
PLQ: 1053
CAQ: 504
PQ: 176

Fabre (14/158)
PLQ: 411
PQ: 126
CAQ: 126
QS: 34

Rene-Levesque (22/121)
PQ: 704
PLQ: 573
CAQ: 71
QS: 61

Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne (18/193)
PLQ: 414
QS: 234
PQ: 204

[Boston Bread]

QS is second in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne! That's an impressive for a fourth party that got 11% last time. I hope it holds.

Edit: they literally fell to 3rd as I typed this

[Hatman 🍁]

QS back in 2nd in Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne!

Beauce-Sud (58/169)
PLQ: 2672
CAQ: 1624
PQ: 411

Fabre (33/158)
PLQ: 846
PQ: 450
CAQ: 290
QS: 104

Rene-Levesque (52/121)
PQ: 2109
PLQ: 1553
CAQ: 238
QS: 229

Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne (39/193)
PLQ: 845
QS: 568
PQ: 535