Canadian by-elections, 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Robert Fisher on Wynne's gamble.

[Boston Bread]

I'm curious as to why Simcoe of all places had such a large swing to the liberals. My former Barrie MPP Jackson lost re-election, a happy day that was.

[Boston Bread]

A more interesting swing map in my mind is the 2007-2014 liberal swing map, which really demonstrates their decline in rural areas and their ever-increasing strength in Toronto.
I made this map some months ago, the technology isn't impressive but it shows it:
grey=swing of less than 1%
red=liberal swing, 5% increments
blue=liberal decrease, 5% increments


Edit: Whoops, I'm new to the image system here

[Hatman 🍁]

Maps not showing, can you post it in the gallery?

[DL]

The first poll in Sudbury is by Forum in today's Toronto star and it has some surprises. Despite being totally unknown and only nominated on Sunday the NDP candidate Suzanne Shawbonquit narrowly leads with 42% followed by turncoat Liberal Glenn Thibeault at 40%. Well back is the Tory at 13% and the Green at 3%.

What about the former Liberal candidate Michael Olivier running as an independent? He trails at just 1%!!

[Hatman 🍁]

Too bad for Olivier, but the I guess voters realize this is a 2-horse race. Voters upset with the Libs can just vote NDP. If Olivier really wanted to win, and stick it to the Libs, he should've run for the NDP. Not sure he'd have won the nomination, though.

[lilTommy]

Too bad for Olivier, but the I guess voters realize this is a 2-horse race. Voters upset with the Libs can just vote NDP. If Olivier really wanted to win, and stick it to the Libs, he should've run for the NDP. Not sure he'd have won the nomination, though.

I'm actually kind of surprised he's polling so low, but you might be right Hatman, this was going to be a horse race, thought more disgruntled OLP would stick with Oliver though.
I can expect her vote to only go up as her name gets out there. Frankly Suzanne Shawbonquit is a "progressive" dream candidate on paper; a woman, a minority candidate and with business experience... type of candidate Wynne herself would have wanted to run, but i guess a second rate leftover will do too (yup, not a fan of floor crosser's)
Not sure if this was mentioned but Glen was not actually the MP for Sudbury, but rather Nickel Belt. I'm not sure if any of his Federal riding is actually in the provincial Sudbury riding? While Claude Gravelle the NDP MP for Sudbury has already spoken out against Glen's move, not sure if that will make any impact (the poll shows not really) but still a few weeks to do.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gravelle is the MP for Nickel Belt, Thibeault was the MP for Sudbury.

[lilTommy]

Gravelle is the MP for Nickel Belt, Thibeault was the MP for Sudbury.

.... :l totally disregard my comment...

[Hatman 🍁]

A Small part of Thibeault's riding is in Nickel Belt provincially, though.

[lilTommy]

SUPER scientific online poll on the CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/sudbury-byelection-issues-may-get-hyperlocal-nipissing-prof-says-1.2897803
Shows that Oliver is polling at 12% and Greens at 13%
The NDP 38 vs OLP 26% - at the time i saw it about 1K voted... like I said SUPER scientific but it makes me think perhaps Oliver will poll better then 1%

[lilTommy]

Perfect timing... Oliver has released the taps of his conversation with Sorbara and Gerry Lougheed

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/15/olivier-releases-recordings

[RogueBeaver]

If he thinks there was something illegal about that, maybe send them to the OPP?

[MaxQue]

If he thinks there was something illegal about that, maybe send them to the OPP?

He probably don't think it's illegal, but it can be damaging. It's not because it's legal than it's moral or looks good.

[RogueBeaver]

As a local reporter points out, Elections Act 96.1 (e) is what's potentially relevant. Weirdly Olivier released these publicly but refused to give them to the OPP without a warrant. I guess they all forgot to Google "Chuck Cadman."

[lilTommy]

The OPP were called in, no criminal offence http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/ontario-liberals-did-not-commit-criminal-offence-opp-1.2898167

But, it basically contradicts the Premier, it calls her out as having lied about the whole issue.

[RogueBeaver]

After all the OLP has been through, I doubt this hurts them too much.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

[MaxQue]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

No, the 25th is the Liberal investiture convention. PLQ does that wierdly, there is even lenghtly profiles of every candidate on PLQ website. The candidates are Sylvain Dupuis, mayor of Saint-Ours, Benoît Théroux, financial security and insurance adviser and Nancy Sheridan, business consultant.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

No, the 25th is the Liberal investiture convention. PLQ does that wierdly, there is even lenghtly profiles of every candidate on PLQ website. The candidates are Sylvain Dupuis, mayor of Saint-Ours, Benoît Théroux, financial security and insurance adviser and Nancy Sheridan, business consultant.

Thanks; I assume it hasn't been called then?

[Boston Bread]

Thibeault explains his switch:
http://www.northernlife.ca/mobile/displayarticle.aspx?id=90650

[MaxQue]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

No, the 25th is the Liberal investiture convention. PLQ does that wierdly, there is even lenghtly profiles of every candidate on PLQ website. The candidates are Sylvain Dupuis, mayor of Saint-Ours, Benoît Théroux, financial security and insurance adviser and Nancy Sheridan, business consultant.

Thanks; I assume it hasn't been called then?

Not than I'm aware.

[RogueBeaver]

Thibeault on why he switched: he suddenly realized that a lot of his pet issues are under provincial jurisdiction, he ran for Layton's style (faint echoes of Lise St. Denis) and the NDP has changed since, touchy-feely stuff about Wynne's leadership style.

[lilTommy]

Thibeault on why he switched: he suddenly realized that a lot of his pet issues are under provincial jurisdiction, he ran for Layton's style (faint echoes of Lise St. Denis) and the NDP has changed since, touchy-feely stuff about Wynne's leadership style.

Odd no mention of the backroom deal to get a nice power seat at the table... If he wanted to anger the local NDP more, he did it by throwing Layton's name in there. Needless to say, that "answer" is not going over well with the Northern Dippers

[DL]

Two facts worth noting:

1. Thibeault backed Mulcair for the NDP leadership over other candidates who had personal styles more similar to Layton

2. Jack Layton's mother personal sent an open letter to Thibeault condemning him and essentially saying that her late son is rolling over in his grave