Canadian by-elections, 2015

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre: 89 votes Liberal lead.
Sydney: 272 votes Liberal lead.

Dartmouth: 88 votes Liberal lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking good for my predictions so far.

Tories seem to be doing better than expected, interesting. And Dartmouth South is surprisingly close.

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre: 111 votes Liberal lead.
Sydney: 304 votes Liberal lead.

Dartmouth: 35 votes Liberal lead.

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre: 210 votes Liberal lead.
Sydney: 217 votes Liberal lead.

Dartmouth: 65 votes Liberal lead.

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like the Grits pick up 2 seats.

[MaxQue]

Cape Breton Centre: 470 votes Liberal lead.  (35/38)
Sydney: 838 votes Liberal lead. (42/47)

Dartmouth: 36 votes Liberal lead. (41/47)

[Hatman 🍁]

Who'da thunk the NDP would have a chance at Dartmouth South, but lose the others handily?

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP leads Dartmouth South by 3 votes and 4 polls to go!

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals now up by 5 with 3 polls to go.

[Boston Bread]

Dang, so much for Notleymania.

[ObserverIE]

Cape Breton Centre

Lib 3,060 (49.02%)
NDP 2,538 (40.66%)
PC 644 (10.32%)

Sydney - Whitney Pier

Lib 3,794 (49.05%)
NDP 2,332 (30.15%)
PC 1,609 (20.80%)

[MaxQue]

Final results:

Cape Breton Centre
David Wilson (Lib) 3060 votes (49.02%) (+5.81)
Tammy Martin (NDP) 2538 votes (40.66%) (-4.63)
Edna Lee (PC) 644 votes (10.32%) (-1.17)

Sydney-Whitney Pier
Derek Mombourquette (Lib) 3794 votes (49.05%) (+5.02)
Madonna Doucette (NDP) 2332 votes (30.15%) (-19.22)
Brian MacArthur (PC) 1609 votes (20.80%) (+14.20)

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:
Cape Breton Centre: Lib gain from NDP: (5.22%)
Sydney-Whitney Pier: Lib gain from NDP (12.12%)

Turnout:
Cape Breton Centre: 47.20%
Sydney-Whitney Pier: 42.60%

Not a bad turnout considering it's the middle of the summer.

[Boston Bread]

NDP wins Dartmouth South!!!

[Boston Bread]

Final results:

NDP 2274
Lib 2193
PC 1494
Ind 490

Strong enough to hold in any recount, I think.

[MaxQue]

Final results:

Dartmouth South
Marian Mancini (NDP) 2274 votes (35.25%) (+1.93)
Tim Rissesco (Lib) 2193 votes (33.99%) (-12.25)
Gord Gamble (PC) 1494 votes (23.16%) (+4.75)
Charlene Gagnon (Ind) 490 votes (7.60%) (+5.57 compared to 2013 Ind)

Turnout: 38.21%

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow! DC got all three wrong!

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the results came down to candidate strength.

Liberals were helped in Cape Breton by running their 2013 candidates, while the NDP ran nobodies. In Dartmouth, the NDP ran the wife of a former MP (albeit an MP from Cape Breton). Actually, the story in Dartmouth looks to be a Liberal to PC swing.

Overall, the swing in Dartmouth South was 7.09% (NDP gain from Liberal).

Turnout was 38.21%. All those city slickers on vacation! Meanwhile the good folks on Cape Breton are working hard through the tourist season, because there's no other economy left there.

[Krago]

Final results:

Cape Breton Centre
David Wilson (Lib) 3060 votes (49.02%) (+5.81)
Tammy Martin (NDP) 2538 votes (40.66%) (-4.63)
Edna Lee (PC) 644 votes (10.32%) (-1.17)

Sydney-Whitney Pier
Derek Mombourquette (Lib) 3794 votes (49.05%) (+5.02)
Madonna Doucette (NDP) 2332 votes (30.15%) (-19.22)
Brian MacArthur (PC) 1609 votes (20.80%) (+14.20)

The Liberal victor in CBC is David Wilton.  David Wilson is the disgraced former MLA for Glace Bay.

[136or142]

Dave Wilson is also an NDP MLA from Sackville who is running for leader.

Marian Mancini would likely make for a very strong leadership candidate.  In addition to being the wife of a former prominent NDP M.P (albeit for only 1 term I believe), I believe she was also President of the   provincial Party and she is a fairly prominent lawyer in her own right.

Cape Breton Centre was quite close as the NDP lost it by less than 10%.  Had they run a higher profile candidate they may have held on. 

Finally, the Sydney Whitney Pier result strikes me as kind of strange.  It had been close for more than half the polls and then all of a sudden the Liberals pull more than 1,000 votes ahead. The raw number of voters there was also significantly higher than in the other two ridings, although that could be simply because the riding has more eligable voters.  I may be wrong on this, and if I was right, the results would probably have been changed by now, but it wouldn't surprise me if 1,000 votes were mistakenly added to the Liberal total.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in Sydney was lower than Cape Breton, so your theory is bunk. Those were likely advance votes or some such.

The NDP had an LGBT activist run in Sydney. Make of that what you will.

[DL]

No one will ever believe me and its  my fault for not posting anything - but i had a feeling that the NDP might lose the two Cape Breton seats and pick up Dartmouth South

[136or142]

No one will ever believe me and its  my fault for not posting anything - but i had a feeling that the NDP might lose the two Cape Breton seats and pick up Dartmouth South

I believe you. I thought the same thing myself might be possible, although one and (I still say) possibly both Cape Breton seats were somewhat close, it was pretty clear the NDP never had much support on Cape Breton, at least not since Alexa McDonough became the party leader.  In the 2009 election, the NDP only won those 2 seats of the nine despite taking 45% of the vote throughout the province, and the huge margins they got in those ridings in that election were clearly due to the personal popularity of those MLAs.  Of course, the NDP had to have some popularity at one time in Cape Breton to have won those two seats in the first place, but I believe in the late 1990s, the Liberals lost a good deal of their previous support when the P.Cs elected a Cape Bretoner as their leader.  Without looking it up, no doubt Gordie Gosse and Frank Corbett managed to slide up the middle.  Clearly the Liberals have regained their previous support in all parts of the island.

The NDP meanwhile, like in most other provinces has generally been strongest in urban areas (with the handful of northern ridings in some provinces mixed in).  So with the slow decline of the Liberal government's popularity, it's not surprising that they would do best in the Halifax Metro area, although the Cape Breton Centre candidate actually got a higher share of the vote.

Also, as has been stated elsewhere.  The NDP ran their highest profile candidate by far in the Halifax riding, if not necessarily the best candidate and apparently the Liberals ran a previous unknown.  While it is likely true that it's the rural areas where people pay the most attention to the local candidate, I believe it's also true that those who vote in by elections also pay more attention to the local candidate and campaign, in both urban and rural areas.

Has there ever been a series of by elections held on the same day before where all the ridings held by more than one party flipped to a different party?

Edit: Gordie Gosse and Frank Corbett (and one other Cape Breton New Democrat) were both elected in 1998 prior to the Cape Breton P.Cer becoming leader, but the Liberals lost 30% of their support in that election and Cape Breton was still easily the strongest region of the province for the Liberals even in that election.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow! DC got all three wrong!

I will now accept the egg in my face

[DC Al Fine]

Another factor: The only major issue this government has had is their cuts to the film tax credit, which caused a huge outcry. That is definitely more of a Halifax issue than a Cape Breton one.

The NDP in Cape Breton is looking rather dire. In fact, the two MLA's from their original breakthrough (Jeremy Akerman & Paul MacEwan) are now Liberals his is another example of the NDP's gradual shift from prairie populists and industrial workers to white collar public servants and the creative class.