Canadian by-elections, 2015

[136or142]

Another factor: The only major issue this government has had is their cuts to the film tax credit, which caused a huge outcry. That is definitely more of a Halifax issue than a Cape Breton one.

The NDP in Cape Breton is looking rather dire. In fact, the two MLA's from their original breakthrough (Jeremy Akerman & Paul MacEwan) are now Liberals his is another example of the NDP's gradual shift from prairie populists and industrial workers to white collar public servants and the creative class.

"Social Activists" for good and bad are also a major component of the NDP coalition.  There are many social activists who are also Liberals, and there are, of course, anti abortion social activists and the like, but I'm referring to social activists who either work for or are directors or executive directors of NGOs (or NPOs).  These are what the alarmist nut Jeremy Rifkin calls the 'civil society' and at least up until a few years ago employment in them had been growing at a decent, if not rapid, pace.

Of course, there are also some religious conservatives who work for these organizations, especially the anti poverty organizations, because of their concern for the poor. 

Although social workers are regarded as being mostly on the left, in the United States there are usually about a dozen or so social workers, or people in related fields, who are nominated for the Republican Party for Congress every two years, though they usually run in safe Democratic districts.

[Hatman 🍁]

This does bode well for Chisholm's chances to retain his seat. I've all but written him off at this point.

[DL]

This does bode well for Chisholm's chances to retain his seat. I've all but written him off at this point.

I'm actually very confident that Chisholm will win. He won narrowly in 2011 because he was up against a popular Liberal incumbent who had won three terms...now the Liberals have nominated some nobody against him and now Chisholm is the incumbent. With NDP support in Nova Scotia restored to 2011 levels (if not higher) and with evidence that the McNeil gov't is losing popularity in Halifax HRM...I think Chisholm will do fine...and he will do even better once people across Atlantic Canada wake up to the fact that the federal Liberals under boy Justin are NOT going to win and that electing a Liberal MP will NOT cause roads to miraculously get paved!

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario: PC MPP Garfield Dunlop surrenders his Simcoe North seat to Brown.

[RogueBeaver]

His resignation takes effect next Saturday, so if Wynne sees the LG ASAP as she promised Brown could be in the Leg when it sits on Sept. 14.

[RogueBeaver]

Matthews says the by-election will be held after the federal election.

[DL]

Matthews says the by-election will be held after the federal election.

IMHO, the Liberals know full well that they will be CRUSHED in any byelection in Simcoe North and that they would likely come in 3rd behind the NDP as well. They don't want that to hit the fan the day the federal writ is dropped and have it reflect badly on boy Justin.

[Boston Bread]

Simcoe North had one of the strongest swings towards the OLP in 2014 (more than 10 points) so I can still see them finishing a strong second.

[adma]

And the ONDP (w/the same candidate as in 2011) fell a titch in share, too.

For whatever reason, Kathleen Wynne actually overachieved in a lot of Central Ontario Heartland seats; maybe she came across as a bit of a Sensible Red Tory in Liberal clothing...

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if they'll be some other resignations.  Maybe Tim Hudak going to the private sector?  Or perhaps Monte Kwinter will retire (of course people have said he's going to retire for about 15 years now).

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if they'll be some other resignations.  Maybe Tim Hudak going to the private sector?  Or perhaps Monte Kwinter will retire (of course people have said he's going to retire for about 15 years now).

Kwinter? He'll die in office.

[Hatman 🍁]

And the ONDP (w/the same candidate as in 2011) fell a titch in share, too.

For whatever reason, Kathleen Wynne actually overachieved in a lot of Central Ontario Heartland seats; maybe she came across as a bit of a Sensible Red Tory in Liberal clothing...

I'm still trying to figure out what happened in Central Ontario. I know the Liberals targeted the outer GTA heavily (to much success), but I'm not sure why they saw such large gains in some Central Ontario seats.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe because the NDP didn't put any effort in rural central and eastern Ontario and voters saw the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories.  Of course neither party has to win these regions in order to form a government.

ETA: Added "rural" to preempt "But Mary Rita Holland in Kingston" responses.

[adma]

In the leadership race, didn't Wynne put extra effort into wooing Central Ontario?  Maybe they were returning the favour (to a degree)

[King of Kensington]

Central Ontario*

2014: 

PCs  160,815  38.6% 
Liberals  156,345  37.5%
NDP  74,541  17.9% 

2011:

PCs  167,719  45.8%
Liberals  113,015  30.9%
NDP  66,920  18.3%

* Barrie, Durham, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Northumberland, Peterborough, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe North and York-Simcoe.  Feel free to pick at this definition of central Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

In the leadership race, didn't Wynne put extra effort into wooing Central Ontario?  Maybe they were returning the favour (to a degree)

Wynne did do well in some of Central Ontario:

[DL]

And the ONDP (w/the same candidate as in 2011) fell a titch in share, too.

For whatever reason, Kathleen Wynne actually overachieved in a lot of Central Ontario Heartland seats; maybe she came across as a bit of a Sensible Red Tory in Liberal clothing...

I'm still trying to figure out what happened in Central Ontario. I know the Liberals targeted the outer GTA heavily (to much success), but I'm not sure why they saw such large gains in some Central Ontario seats.

That was then and this is now...Wynne's government is now EXTREMELY unpopular and something like 90% of Ontarians are deadset against her scheme to sell of hydro etc... In any byelection conducted in the current environment, an Ontario Liberal candidate will get squashed like a bug!

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals were still unpopular in the general election. Not as unpopular as now, but still weren't popular. Of course, the Tories were hated just as much, and the NDP was no better for a lot of people.

[DL]

The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

[DC Al Fine]

The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

Indeed, although we're what, three years out from an election? Let's start speculating in 2017.

[DL]

The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

Indeed, although we're what, three years out from an election? Let's start speculating in 2017.

I'm not speculating about 2018, I'm speculating about what would happen in a provincial by election in ht every near future

[Hatman 🍁]

The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

A lot of that 15% drop still did not like the Liberals, I'd imagine.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne says she will call Simcoe North for Sept. 3.

[RogueBeaver]

Writ issued for Simcoe North.

[Krago]

Notley calls Calgary Foothills provincial by-election for Sept. 3