Canadian by-elections, 2015

[136or142]

"I know well enough that Horgan is mocked and held in contempt by both BC NDPers and the voting public (those who know him). Basically "Tom Mulcair on steriods". Or the "anti-Justin Trudeau". All the relevant data is out there. Not rocket science."

Which is evident based on the 95% support Horgan received at the NDP convention held a few days ago.

[Lotuslander]

Which is evident based on the 95% support Horgan received at the NDP convention held a few days ago.

Haha. Ya now kiddin' me? How do ya think the NDP church faithful would vote at their last convention before e-day? For another leadership convention? Good grief!

BTW, the $1,000 bet is on. I am very serious. Don't welch on the bet. "Cause ya will never hear the end of it from me!!!

[DL]

It's pretty common knowledge that the BC Liberals are petrified of John Horgan. He has a common touch, is a hit with blue collar workers and call also charm the Board of Trade. When the BC NDP was picking a successor to carol James, the BC Liberals were on their hands and knees praying to God that the NDP would NOT pick Horgan since they knew he would be impossible to beat. They were relieved when Adrian Dix won instead. Horgan is so popular and such a unifying force in the NDP that when he initially said he didn't want to run to be leader after Dix stepped down, everyone begged him to reconsider and the moment he decided to run, all other candidates for the leadership drop out and instead it was a coronation for Horgan. How often do you see a major political party pick a new leader by acclamation? I can only think of when Mike Harcourt was acclaimed as leader of the BC NDP in the late 80s.

Canada is clearly swing to the left. We have seen that federally and in the last series of provincial election in Alberta, Ontario etc... The rabidly right wing BC "Liberal" (aka Social Credit) Gov't is clearly on the way out.

[Gary J]

British Columbia provincial politics seems to have a strong tendency to produce one hegemonic anti-NDP party at a time, with other alternative anti-NDP parties relegated to irrelevance. This process does not seem to operate at the federal level, perhaps because the federal NDP in BC are not as much of a threat as the provincial NDP who are serious contenders for power.

[adma]

Canada is clearly swing to the left. We have seen that federally and in the last series of provincial election in Alberta, Ontario etc... The rabidly right wing BC "Liberal" (aka Social Credit) Gov't is clearly on the way out.

Though even now, I'd deem the BC Libs (like the Bill Bennett Socreds) a bit more big-tenty than "rabidly right wing"--it'd take a different leader than Christy Clark to prove to me otherwise.

But re this thread-hijacking, I'd have to say that Lotuslander's tone re the NDP reminds me of guys at the wrong end of an ugly divorce case trying to portray their alimony-leech exes as mentally ill feminazis or whatnot...

[136or142]

How often do you see a major political party pick a new leader by acclamation? I can only think of when Mike Harcourt was acclaimed as leader of the BC NDP in the late 80s.

Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan and Michael Ignatieff by the Federal Liberals.

[136or142]

Canada is clearly swing to the left. We have seen that federally and in the last series of provincial election in Alberta, Ontario etc... The rabidly right wing BC "Liberal" (aka Social Credit) Gov't is clearly on the way out.

Though even now, I'd deem the BC Libs (like the Bill Bennett Socreds) a bit more big-tenty than "rabidly right wing"--it'd take a different leader than Christy Clark to prove to me otherwise.

I agree. The B.C Liberals did a couple things with attempting to move people on welfare to work that wouldn't be described as right wing.

Beyond that, this government has been so consumed with LNG and with Christy Clark's public relations as governing, that I don't think it's possible to say this government has any ideology.

[DL]

The only "ism" Christy Clark believes in is "narcissism"

[Lotuslander]

It's pretty common knowledge that the BC Liberals are petrified of John Horgan. He has a common touch, is a hit with blue collar workers and call also charm the Board of Trade. When the BC NDP was picking a successor to carol James, the BC Liberals were on their hands and knees praying to God that the NDP would NOT pick Horgan since they knew he would be impossible to beat.

The rabidly right wing BC "Liberal" (aka Social Credit) Gov't is clearly on the way out

OK. Now I definitely know that ya ain't from BC. Even the most hardcore BC NDP supporters here have never even come close to sayin' anything akin to that.

A bit of a reality check. A centre-left, "soft" BC NDP supporter wrote an opinion piece just last week... which also hit a nerve on the Twittersphere with agreement from many other "soft" BC NDP supporters. Looks like the fed Trudeau win has caused some reverberations out here in BC in terms of having a provincial "fed Liberal type party" that's electable and can replace the incumbent BC Liberals:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/opinion/why-isnt-christy-clark-facing-fight-her-life-over-triple-deletes

[Holmes]

That soft BC NDP supporter is just concern trolling. The election campaign is years from now, it's too early to make any type of prediction, and that includes the predictions of Clark's "inevitable demise".

[Lotuslander]

That soft BC NDP supporter is just concern trolling. The election campaign is years from now, it's too early to make any type of prediction, and that includes the predictions of Clark's "inevitable demise".

And I suppose that you are just another hardcore NDP supporter as well with that diatribe? From Ontario? Man, is this site totally infested with just NDPers? When only 12% of Canadians now support the fed NDP according to the latest Forum Research opinion poll? Reality check - Another 88% of Canadians support someone else!

PS. I know the author of the foregoing article - guy's name is Paul Hillsdon and he's a BCer - unlike most others posting here! And he wrote in the centre-left Vancouver Observer to boot.

PPS. BC election is just 17 months away!

[Holmes]

You're feisty. I live in California. I used to live in Northern Ontario but I moved to California to marry my husband.

I'm basically saying what the last sentence in your post says, the election is in 2017 so there's no point in predicting it one way or the other. I think I can say that even if I don't live in BC. No need to be hostile.

[136or142]

That soft BC NDP supporter is just concern trolling. The election campaign is years from now, it's too early to make any type of prediction, and that includes the predictions of Clark's "inevitable demise".

And I suppose that you are just another hardcore NDP supporter as well with that diatribe? From Ontario? Man, is this site totally infested with just NDPers? When only 12% of Canadians now support the fed NDP according to the latest Forum Research opinion poll? Reality check - Another 88% of Canadians support someone else!

PS. I know the author of the foregoing article - guy's name is Paul Hillsdon and he's a BCer - unlike most others posting here! And he wrote in the centre-left Vancouver Observer to boot.

PPS. BC election is just 17 months away!

Your idiotic view that everybody who disagrees with you is 'a hardcore NDP supporter' with a diatribe (nobody is posting diatribes except you) is getting very tiresome.

I'd ask you to go away, as it's becoming apparently you are a troll as much as anything else, but I want to collect my $1,000 first.

[Lotuslander]

Your idiotic view that everybody who disagrees with you is 'a hardcore NDP supporter' with a diatribe (nobody is posting diatribes except you) is getting very tiresome.

I'd ask you to go away, as it's becoming apparently you are a troll as much as anything else, but I want to collect my $1,000 first.

Sorry Adam. You are completely outta touch with BC politics as well. I def know that from your previous postings and your attempted (however political illiterate) backing of the BC NDP . And, as such, I know that ya will owe me $1,000! Don't welch... 'cause I will come and collect. Seriously. When I talk the talk... I always walk the walk.

PS. That's why ya are an BC NDP voter (with some Green salad tossed in).

PPS. When someone throws in ad hominems like yourself... bluntly tells me that they don't have a leg to stand on.

[adma]

Yep. You're def a bright one. Ya just gotta be an NDP supporter. Ya have all the hallmarks of same.

Yeah, just like an angry ex-husband suggesting that defenders of his leech of an ex-wife have all the hallmarks of feminist radicalism ;-)

Look: I agree that certain claims on behalf of the NDP have been a bit over the top over time--but you seem a little too, er, overeager to drive them to the supposed margins they "deserve", by reading the current 12% polling as inflexible evidence they're following the inevitable road to oblivion just like the PCs, Socred, Union Nationale, maybe the UK Lib Dems et al...

[Hatman 🍁]

Hashemite, please drone this thread. Thank you.

[adma]

And I must say also: we're talking about the *provincial* NDP here.  The way lotuslander's going about it, it's like the BCNDP's heading for (and moreover, *deserves*) an equivalent to 12% oblivion, and a "Dosanjih wipeout", etc.

That's not reality; that angy-ex-husband bile.

[Hash]

A final warning to everybody involved in this silly nonsensical argument: cut it out and act like mature adults, or posts will be deleted.

[DL]

Getting back to the issue of byelections - one will be called very soon (perhaps as soon as next week) in the Ontario PC-held seat of Whitby-Oshawa...this could be an early test of Patrick Brown's leadership.

[Holmes]

Well considering Wynne's numbers are in the tank with selling off some of Hydro One and the teachers unions shenanigans, it'll be an easy test for Brown. The real question is, who will come in second?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well considering Wynne's numbers are in the tank with selling off some of Hydro One and the teachers unions shenanigans, it'll be an easy test for Brown. The real question is, who will come in second?

It won't be the NDP, if that's what you're asking. It's Whitby.

[Boston Bread]

It won't be the NDP, if that's what you're asking. It's Whitby.

They came second in 2011 federally and in 2014 the NDP got 23%, close to their provincial average. Removing the Oshawa part could reduce that by a few %. So it's possible they could be second, although I don't think it will be the case.

[Holmes]

Well considering Wynne's numbers are in the tank with selling off some of Hydro One and the teachers unions shenanigans, it'll be an easy test for Brown. The real question is, who will come in second?

It won't be the NDP, if that's what you're asking. It's Whitby.

I'm saying the PC should easily win this by-election, but what's more interesting is who will come in second.

[adma]

Though given what's just transpired federally and the psychological impact that might have, I'm not so certain about either an easy PC win or the race being for second--unless Horwath's got some sleight-of-hand tricks up her sleeve, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's pushed back to around the 10th percentile or less.  Much like what happened to 2011's federal second-placer in the byelection to replace Flaherty, or to 2014's provincial second-placer when he ran federally presently.  (NB: six months ago, I wouldn't have been so bearish re NDP chances.)

As contentious as Wynne is, there's wind in the Liberal brand's sails--in fact, had Elliott not run last year, there's an excellent chance that Whitby-Oshawa could have gone Liberal a la Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora, Durham.  In the end, W-O is more a "Flaherty/Elliott" seat than a Conservative seat--though it may depend on who's running for the PCs; might newly-defeated MP Pat Perkins hit the ground running?  Or any of the Elliott-Flaherty triplets?

[Lotuslander]

And I must say also: we're talking about the *provincial* NDP here.  The way lotuslander's going about it, it's like the BCNDP's heading for (and moreover, *deserves*) an equivalent to 12% oblivion, and a "Dosanjih wipeout", etc.

That's not reality; that angy-ex-husband bile.

You are clearly misrepresenting what I actually previously stated. Again, Forum Research's opinion poll from Wednesday had the NDP at 12% federally and 13% right here in BC. Undoubtedly the largest collapse of support that I have ever seen happen so quickly. Why is that relevant? 'Cause it's quite apparent that roughly 90% of folk posting here are NDP supporters - obviously not representative of the electorate at large.

As for the 2 upcoming BC by-elections, your subsequent post is somewhat apropos and relevant to BC as well:

Though given what's just transpired federally and the psychological impact that might have... I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's pushed back to around the 10th percentile or less...   there's wind in the Liberal brand's sails