Canadian by-elections, 2015

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I don't have a dog in the hunt in the by election but it astounds me that the Liberals won a majority government after the McGuinty years.

These are, in my opinion, the five worst premiers in Canada for the last 30 or so years:

1.Grant Devine, Saskatchewan
2.Glen Clark, British Columbia
3.Alison Redford, Alberta
4.Don Getty, Alberta
5.Dalton McGuinty, Ontario

6th would be Bill Vander Zalm in B.C.  For all the turbulence his administration, his government actually has some record of accomplishment.

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Looks like you're only using corruption to measure that list. I'd be putting Mike Harris at the top of any "worst premier list" (last 25 years).

Corruption and incompetence.

I agree Harris is a horrible person, but by and large he did seem to achieve what he set out to do, no matter how destructive it was for many of the people of Ontario.

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http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

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So, is it possible Katheryn Wynn could wind up in jail?  Or just merely have to resign.

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Adam: The OLP, PCAA and PLQ all beg to differ.

?
I appreciate you trying to help me, but I honestly don't know what you mean by that.

Hatman, Rob Ford, for all his many faults, never tried to bribe anybody that we know of.  Outside of allegedly smoking crack, I don't believe he actually committed any crime.

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10/238: 146 Thibault, 113 Shawbonquit. Really wish we had poll maps like the US, would make guesstimates easier.

Really? You could actually know what's going on in Sudbury with a map? I'm impressed.

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People are tweeting that the Liberals are ahead

What difference? It's going to go back and forth, or at least the lead is going to narrow and widen.

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Why would the Liberals have gained here and the NDP dropped, when it seems that Wynne is almost as bad a premier as McGuinty?

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

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Why would the Liberals have gained here and the NDP dropped, when it seems that Wynne is almost as bad a premier as McGuinty?

The only thing I can think of is that the voters are punishing the NDP for the need of the by election in the first place.

It's only a few months in.  Sudbury wants $$$, funding, 400 to Sudbury ASAP, etc.  A by-election this early into a term, I am not surprised.  Also, looks like PCs bled a lot of support, perhaps to the Liberals?  Not sure.

While I realize it's politics, the idea that a government riding would get more 'goodies' than an opposition riding sickens me.

In regards to the funding, why would Thibeault have more success getting those things than the previous long time Liberal MPP had?

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King of Kensington, when you walk down the street do you smile at everyone?

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The NDP has finally nominated a candidate in The Pas (Amanda Lathlin), now that the leadership mess is over with.  The by-election has to be held before May 16 (exactly one year after the seat became vacant).

Whoever wins will probably serve for a term of less than the period of time the riding was vacant, as the general election will be held in April 2016

I assume she is the daughter of Oscar Lathlin?

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Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

I may say you're a dreamer.

1.The Green Party received their highest share of the vote in British Columbia provincial elections in 2001 at 12.4%.  They declined to 9.2% in 2005, 8.2% in 2009 and then 8.1% in 2013.  To be fair, they obviously declined from 2001 to 2005 as disgruntled New Democrats returned 'home' and their 2013 vote share was actually an 'same store sale' increase as they ran only 61 candidates in 2013 vs a full slate of 85 in 2009.  

That said, I see no evidence the party has gained since 2001 except that their vote is now more concentrated in Southern Vancouver Island to the point where they can challenge for and win seats there.

2.Adrian Carr was actually first elected to City Council in 2011 and topped the polls in 2014, so she was far from a 'dud' as a leader.  This despite having previously run, and I believe, lived in Powell River-Sunshine Coast sometime prior to moving to Vancouver.  

Also, despite polls allegedly showing the Green Party was poised to win at least one more, and possibly two more seats on city council, their second showing candidate was actually well back in the pack.

3.While the Green Party may have received 27% of the vote in some parts of Vancouver-Mount Pleasant (still a very distant second), overall they received 11.9% of the vote in 2013, not much different from 2005 or 2009.

4.While Vancouver-Mount Pleasant was the Green Party's best riding in Vancouver in the 2013 election, it was only so by less than 1% over two other ridings.  While the Green Party does run on other issues and while nearly everybody is concerned about the environment, it's hard to believe that environmental concerns are the top of mind issues for the blue collar working class people in this riding.

I'd be shocked if the Green Party got over 20% of the vote here.

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The story I heard on Matt Toner either on CBC, CKNW or News1130 only mentioned that the Green Party was trying to recruit him, not that they had successfully done so.  So, this is a bit of a surprise.

Toner is close to a star catch in that he is a new media businessman and a former diplomat with a PhD in economics.  He lost quite handily to Sam Sullivan in Vancouver-False Creek in 2013 but he did bring up the NDP share of the vote quite considerably.

That said, I'm not sure how somebody with his profile will play in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

It seems the B.C Green Party is increasingly attracting left leaning, environmental business people as candidates.

I wonder if that businessperson/economist Matt Toner running for the B.C Greens means that the party has abondoned its previous ridiculous vision for the economy of essentially local autarky.

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http://www.straight.com/news/426176/ndp-prospects-eye-election-nomination-vancouver-mount-pleasant

Names mentioned as possible candidates
1.Sarah Blyth
2.Diana Day, 2014 COPE School Board candidate
3.Mira Oreck
4. Emma Wan-Chin Lee

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Two First Nations women may enter NDP nomination race in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

http://www.straight.com/news/433521/two-first-nations-women-may-enter-ndp-nomination-race-vancouver-mount-pleasant

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I'd say the decline in the NDP vote share is pretty normal for a first time candidate replacing a popular longtime incumbent, but Frank Whitehead hadn't been an MLA for all that long.

The rather slight increase in the P.C vote share and the larger increase for the Liberals pretty much confirm the province wide polls.

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So much for the Greens star candidate in Vancouver East.

Former B.C. NDP candidate Matt Toner out of race for Green nomination in Vancouver

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Former+candidate+Matt+Toner+race+Green+nomination+Vancouver/10995445/story.html

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I predict the NDP will win all 3 and you all know my track record of predictions.

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Dave Wilson is also an NDP MLA from Sackville who is running for leader.

Marian Mancini would likely make for a very strong leadership candidate.  In addition to being the wife of a former prominent NDP M.P (albeit for only 1 term I believe), I believe she was also President of the   provincial Party and she is a fairly prominent lawyer in her own right.

Cape Breton Centre was quite close as the NDP lost it by less than 10%.  Had they run a higher profile candidate they may have held on. 

Finally, the Sydney Whitney Pier result strikes me as kind of strange.  It had been close for more than half the polls and then all of a sudden the Liberals pull more than 1,000 votes ahead. The raw number of voters there was also significantly higher than in the other two ridings, although that could be simply because the riding has more eligable voters.  I may be wrong on this, and if I was right, the results would probably have been changed by now, but it wouldn't surprise me if 1,000 votes were mistakenly added to the Liberal total.

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No one will ever believe me and its  my fault for not posting anything - but i had a feeling that the NDP might lose the two Cape Breton seats and pick up Dartmouth South

I believe you. I thought the same thing myself might be possible, although one and (I still say) possibly both Cape Breton seats were somewhat close, it was pretty clear the NDP never had much support on Cape Breton, at least not since Alexa McDonough became the party leader.  In the 2009 election, the NDP only won those 2 seats of the nine despite taking 45% of the vote throughout the province, and the huge margins they got in those ridings in that election were clearly due to the personal popularity of those MLAs.  Of course, the NDP had to have some popularity at one time in Cape Breton to have won those two seats in the first place, but I believe in the late 1990s, the Liberals lost a good deal of their previous support when the P.Cs elected a Cape Bretoner as their leader.  Without looking it up, no doubt Gordie Gosse and Frank Corbett managed to slide up the middle.  Clearly the Liberals have regained their previous support in all parts of the island.

The NDP meanwhile, like in most other provinces has generally been strongest in urban areas (with the handful of northern ridings in some provinces mixed in).  So with the slow decline of the Liberal government's popularity, it's not surprising that they would do best in the Halifax Metro area, although the Cape Breton Centre candidate actually got a higher share of the vote.

Also, as has been stated elsewhere.  The NDP ran their highest profile candidate by far in the Halifax riding, if not necessarily the best candidate and apparently the Liberals ran a previous unknown.  While it is likely true that it's the rural areas where people pay the most attention to the local candidate, I believe it's also true that those who vote in by elections also pay more attention to the local candidate and campaign, in both urban and rural areas.

Has there ever been a series of by elections held on the same day before where all the ridings held by more than one party flipped to a different party?

Edit: Gordie Gosse and Frank Corbett (and one other Cape Breton New Democrat) were both elected in 1998 prior to the Cape Breton P.Cer becoming leader, but the Liberals lost 30% of their support in that election and Cape Breton was still easily the strongest region of the province for the Liberals even in that election.

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Another factor: The only major issue this government has had is their cuts to the film tax credit, which caused a huge outcry. That is definitely more of a Halifax issue than a Cape Breton one.

The NDP in Cape Breton is looking rather dire. In fact, the two MLA's from their original breakthrough (Jeremy Akerman & Paul MacEwan) are now Liberals his is another example of the NDP's gradual shift from prairie populists and industrial workers to white collar public servants and the creative class.

"Social Activists" for good and bad are also a major component of the NDP coalition.  There are many social activists who are also Liberals, and there are, of course, anti abortion social activists and the like, but I'm referring to social activists who either work for or are directors or executive directors of NGOs (or NPOs).  These are what the alarmist nut Jeremy Rifkin calls the 'civil society' and at least up until a few years ago employment in them had been growing at a decent, if not rapid, pace.

Of course, there are also some religious conservatives who work for these organizations, especially the anti poverty organizations, because of their concern for the poor. 

Although social workers are regarded as being mostly on the left, in the United States there are usually about a dozen or so social workers, or people in related fields, who are nominated for the Republican Party for Congress every two years, though they usually run in safe Democratic districts.

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In 1979 the entire BC provincial election took place right splat in the middle of the federal election campaign! it was easiest for the NDP to manage this because the NDP is the only party in BC that is vertically integrated - so federal and provincial NDP candidates shared campaign offices and canvassers took literature for both federal and provincial candidates together.

It was harder for the other parties since Social Credit was basically an amalgam of federal Liberals and Conservatives so they couldnt actually share any resources or campaign together.

There were apparently quite a number of lawns that had NDP provincial signs and P.C federal signs.

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There's been some coverage of Liberal mailouts attacking Patrick Brown in the upcoming by-election. I assume the old tradition of giving the other leader a free pass in their by-election is dead?

Wasn't there a New Democrat named something like Joe Noseworthy who beat a leader in some Ontario byelection?

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I highly doubt the NDP would try to reestablish a provincial party in Quebec.  Though they disagree on separatism, we all know the NDP hierarchy supports Q.S.

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Adam: I agree with you that NPDQ will probably remain paper, but QS isn't who Mulcair would support. Our party system is FUBAR as is...

Mulcair says he votes for his preferred local candidate which at present is a Liberal.  I could see him voting for any party other than P.Q.