Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Lotuslander]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

[Lotuslander]

I may say you're a dreamer.

2.Adrian Carr was actually first elected to City Council in 2011 and topped the polls in 2014, so she was far from a 'dud' as a leader.  This despite having previously run, and I believe, lived in Powell River-Sunshine Coast sometime prior to moving to Vancouver.

Obviously you don't even remember the BC Green Party leader in the past two BC provincial elections  - Jane Sterk! Carr has not been the BC Green party leader since 2005.

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If ya analyze the November 2014 Van City muni results, the civic Greens did best in the "working-class" West End, where renters prevail, and in the neighbourhoods of Strathcona/Mount Pleasant underlying this constituency of Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. Both strong BC NDP held areas or ridings in 2013.

Vancouver Mount-Pleasant has also many old refurbished 1920's era Edwardian homes as well as renters - fertile inner city "green" demographics.

The Van City civic Greens would have won all 3 council seats in both areas (West End and Mount Pleasant 'hoods) plus Vision Vancouver's Andrea Reimer (a former Green Party candidate) also basically topped the polls, for VV, here as well.

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Again, the Van City civic Greens had their best results both here and in the West End. Basically same "working class" demographics.

Very important considerations:

1. BC NDP is basically moribund - aimless and drifting. Have not seen the BC NDP in this bad shape since the post-2001 debacle;

2. The Greens oppose the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning as well as the corresponding increase in oil tanker traffic in Vancouver Harbour, which abuts this riding.

The BC NDP held a similar position during the 2013 provincial election campaign, which bolstered the BC NDP vote in inner Van City - winning Van-Point Grey and Van-Fairview as a result. Won over the "green vote" as well as former "green" BC Lib voters. Only area where the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" increased BC NDP vote share in BC.

Today, the BC NDP is sitting on the fence on KM with a wishy-washy" stance. In politics, that which you don’t oppose you’re taken to support. Will be a "wedge issue" right there between the BC Greens and BC NDP during the by-election. In fact, May of the fed Greens has already stated that she will use that as a "wedge issue" with fed NDP in BC.
 

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Not only is former high-profile 2013 BC NDP candidate Matt Toner of neighbouring Van-False Creek running for the nomination but also Van City muni council Green candidate Pete Fry. Who would have ever thunk a BC Green Party nomination battle? Especially in this riding?

Again with:

1. The BC NDP still in a complete funk after 2013, still floundering aimlessly with no momentum at all;

2. BC NDP leader Horgan receiving hardly any media attention;

3. BC Green MLA Weaver portrayed in the media as basically the de facto opposition leader;

4. The BC Greens with all of the poli momentum and the wind in their sails in BC these days;

4. A  by-election likely after the fed election whereby the fed Greens likely to receive another BC seat and increased popular vote share providing further momentum to their BC Greens cousins...

As a result, I can foresee the eventual by-election outcome here as follows:

BC NDP - 50%
BC Green - 40%
BC Lib - 10%

But since it is a by-election, with different poli dynamics, anything can happen. Just witness the previous 2012 fed by-election in Victoria. No one ever previously foresaw the Greens "almost" winning that riding. Ever.

And the Greens are likely to win Victoria in 2015. If that surge crosses the Strait of Georgia - Akin to inner Van City areas of Kitsilano, West End, Mount Pleasant, and Strathcona - same poli dynamic.

PS. I don't vote for the Greens. Just analytically call 'em as I see 'em.

[Lotuslander]

That's funny, I've just been reading several opinion pieces about how well the BC NDP has been doing of late drawing blood from Christy Clark on various scandals and policies flubs and how John Horgan has been really hitting his stride and how the BC NDP is now leading the BC Liberals in polls and would win an election if it were held today

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OTOH, today from the Victoria Times-Colonist:

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[Lotuslander]

I Think Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will be the interesting one, since Van-Mount Pleasant would go NDP if they ran a sign post.

Highly doubt that. Firstly, the NDP in BC provincially continues to drift and remain moribund. Financially, the BC NDP is also in very serious shape. They even recently sold their decades long head office to pay down debt. And they still remain in debt with a provincial election looming just 1 1/2 years away.

On top of that, both the provincial Liberals as well as the provincial Greens also have major "wedge" issues with the BC NDP.

In terms of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, major higher-end residential development continues unabated up Burke Mountain, which demographics favour the BC Libs. The only party that has nominated here is the Greens - Joe Keithley (singer for D.O.A. who previously ran for the BC NDP). Suspect this seat will be a BC Liberal hold with Green vote eating into NDP vote.

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is the BC NDP's strongest seat. No doubt. The Green candidate here, Pete Fry, ran for the Greens (one of 3) in the Vancouver municipal election. The Greens were the top 3 vote getters in Van-MP during the 2014 muni election. And Fry has been campaigning here for months. While this seat will be an NDP hold, suspect that the Green vote will also eat heavily into the former NDP vote here - with the Greens placing 2nd.

With the recent fed election and the upcoming X-mas season, also suspect that the by-elections will be held in February.

[Lotuslander]

It is very obvious that you don't live in BC!

BC NDP leader John Horgan receives very little press out here. And when he does it's due to his embarrassing "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Horgan is also a prolific letter writer to local newspapers in BC - and when he does it's typically letters of apology to the locals for making previous inaccurate and misleading statements to the locals.

Horgan is quick-tempered (cue the angry Tom meme) and "loses it" all the time. Just a few weeks ago, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer made detailed note of same in Horgan's confrontation with several major BC media reporters. "Go screw me" he said.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/vaughn+palmer+glimpse+prickly+side+john+horgan/11419169/story.html

Sorry. But Horgan is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off at a moment's notice. In politics, that is politically toxic. Never would have thought that anyone could make Adrian Dix "look good".

Even about a month ago, Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham threatened to quit the BC NDP caucus over BC Hydro's Site C dam, which BTW has major (82%) public support. And the NDP is opposed to natural gas development, LNG, other resource development, etc. Simply put, the BC NDP does not know what it stands for anymore. Again, it's drifting and moribund and basically has turned into a political train-wreck.

The BC NDP will likely see it's worst electoral showing in the 2017 BC election (aside from the 2001 debacle) since 1969.

BTW, during the recent fed election, most folk that I know voted Liberal here in BC - and these same folk view the NDP as politically toxic. Just not electable.

And then yesterday another major scandal broke out all over the news about prominent NDPers at Vancouver City Hall massively deleting all of their e-mails (Mayor's Chief of Staff Mike Magee for one). That finding was from an investigator of the BC Freedom of Information office.

Hell, even BC Green Party Andrew Weaver seems to be getting more press than BC NDP leader Horgan. And Weaver is seemingly more liked, respected, and credible as well. During the upcoming by-elections, the Greens, as the 3rd party will be the major beneficiaries in terms of popular vote share. No doubt about that.

PS. Over the past weekend, a well known soft-NDP supporter in BC ran a Twitter poll and was astounded that 85% want to see another party in BC akin to the centrist federal Liberals. Most of her followers and ones supporting that concept are also well known soft NDP supporters. Just shows how badly damaged the BC NDP brand is - notwithstanding that the fed NDP support in BC has collapsed to just 13% in today's Forum Research poll.

[Lotuslander]

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

Huh? Norman in 3rd place with 27% and she would have won the riding? Most of the voters therein were Con<---> Lib switchers.

[Lotuslander]

Hyper partisan B.S
1.John Horgan is in the media fairly regularly.  Maybe not so much the print media, but he often appears on talk shows on both the radio and tv.  He receives press coverage in the major dailies whenever the legislature is in session, which under Christy Clark, hasn't been all that often.

I don't know how much local press he receives.

2.Horgan has had one or two outbursts is the legislature.  It's certainly true he has a temper but he mostly keeps it under control. I'm also not sure that that is a big problem.  At a minimum Stephen Harper was reported to have a very bad temper and kept it in check with a smile that usually seemed far more forced than Mulcairs'.  (It says something about the Canadian media that some commentators would refer to Mulcair's smile as 'creepy' but never mentioned Harper's smile.  In my family and among my friends, we all found Harper's smile to be far more creepy.

In the U.S, it wasn't even a secret that Bill Clinton had a massive temper, although once he calmed down, he seemed to forget everything he had said and his staffers learned to just ignore his ranting.

3.I read the local papers regularly especially the letters to the editor, and I've never seen a letter from John Horgan, yet alone one from him apologizing for misstatements.  If this has happened it likely occurred no more than once.  This claim from lotuslander should be taken with a massive grain of salt given his/her obvious bias.

4.Christy Clark doesn't seem to have a temper problem, but she has the exact opposite problem. She seems to think she is funny and she has gotten into trouble for her allegedly humorous tweets far more than Horgan has gotten into trouble for his temper.  Of course, Clark definitely has a problem with honesty.    Horgan was event trying to soft peddle that at the convention.  He said straight up something like "Christy Clark is a liar who will say anything to get elected."

5.I highly doubt Site 'C' has 82% support.  If it ever did, that is certainly no longer the case once the official cost was released (nearly $10 billion.)

6.There is no question the NDP is divided on LNG and resource development, but saying the NDP  opposes those things is an outright lie.

Sorry, But that is hyper-partisan BS. Aren't you the same guy who resides in the Richmond and didn't even know that Queensborough is part of NW or something to that effect?

1. I am a news junkie (6 pm NewsHour Global BC, Vancouver Sun, etc.) and Horgan doesn't get that much coverage. And when he does, alot of it has not been favourable dealing with either Horgan himself or internal BC NDP squabbles. Even Green leader Andrew Weaver seems to get more coverage over the past year.

2. Sorry, but Horgan's outbursts are legendary - his face goes beat red... you know the drill. That's politically toxic, involves bad relations with the media, and imagine Horgan having a bozo eruption during the 2017 or even during the election debates?

3. Horgan has gone to Prince Rupert, Kitimat, Prince George, Dawson Creek, etc. Has received negative local press about his local statements on natural gas fracking, natural gas development, LNG, natural gas pipelines, Site C dam, etc. After the fact, Horgan writes letters to the editor to all of these local papers "to correct" his previous statements. In my entire life in BC, have never seen anything akin to same. Just Google it up.

4. In terms of popularity/public perception, Horgan places 3rd after both CC and Andrew Weaver from all of the data that I have seen.

5. BC hydro's Site C dam? 82% support/17% opposed from Abacus Data poll back in July.  67% support/18% opposed from NRG Research poll of last week.

6. Most of the BC NDP caucus is opposed to natural gas fracking, natural gas pipelines, LNG, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc. Totally on the outs with BC public opinion. In fact, the BC NDP opposed the Project Development Agreement in the BC legislature for the $36 billion Petronas LNG project in NW BC. Even today, the prez of Petronas in Kuala Lumpur stated that they are awaiting the CEAA final environment certification expected in late January for their go ahead.

The optics of the BC NDP OPPOSING the Petronas Project Development Agreement will be brutal for the BC NDP during the 2017 election campaign. Welcome to BC's new political reality.

Just wait for the 2 by-election results next February.

[Lotuslander]

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

Huh? Norman in 3rd place with 27% and she would have won the riding? Most of the voters therein were Con<---> Lib switchers.

I believe Lotuslander used to (and maybe still does) post on Eric Grenier's site, and he/she was one of the main reasons I quit his site.  I wrote an email to Grenier saying that while I certainly didn't expect him to know everything, there were comments on his website that were so obviously false that they should have been deleted.  Grenier seemed concerned about posts that violated 'nice' conduct (including my referring to another hyper partisan poster there who called himself B.C Voice of Reason as B.C Voice of (no) Reason), but when it came to accuracy and truthfulness, Grenier didn't seem to care in the slightest.

Huh? I don't even bother to look at 308. Wayyyy better sites out there. Between you and DL... must be a full moon out there.

The same guys predicting a massive BC NDP landslide back in May, 2013 Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[Lotuslander]

I would expect the NDP to win both by elections handily.

Sigh. With your other preceding comments... it never ceases to amaze me that folk fail to understand BC politics and dynamics thereto. I will leave it at that.

As for Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.. one needs to only look at the demographics:

1. Westwood Plateau - one of largest residential developments in Coquitlam and likely highest income demographic/priciest real estate in eastern Metro Vancouver suburbs; Look at colour-coded riding map and BC Libs won all polling stations here;

2. Coquitlam Town Centre - Many new condo towers built here, are under construction, and in planning stages (with terminus of Evergreen line); Look at colour-coded riding map and BC Libs won all polling stations where condo towers are situate;

3. Burke Mountain - now largest residential development area in eastern Metro Vancouver suburbs. Small, single family homes here start at ~$1 million and townhouses roughly in $750,000 range; Another high-income demographic area; Look again at colour-coded riding map and BC Libs won all polling stations therein; BTW, future population here expected to increase between 25,000 - 40,000;

4. NDP strength is in older 1950's/1960's cheaper residential area east of Pipeline Rd./South of David Avenue. But the explosive population growth is occurring in the previous aforementioned areas;

The demographics of this riding are clearly centre-right. Do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out.

[Lotuslander]

The demographics of Chilliwack-Hope skew even more right wing, yet it still went NDP in the 2012 by-election.

We're not talking about the general election here, we're talking about a by-election. It's a very different scenario.

Good points. But caveat emptor.

Firstly, Chilliwack-Hope is more of a rural small "c" conservative type riding while Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is more of a suburban "blue" liberal type riding in terms of demographics.

Secondly, BC political dynamics were completely different back in April, 2012 (during both by-elections) with the BC NDP and Adrian Dix continuously dominating the news media and CC and the BC Libs under siege.

Back in March/April 2012, both Forum Research (IVR) and Angus Reid (opt-in online panel) surprisingly had the exact same BC provincial polling results:

BC NDP: 46%
BC Lib: 23%
BC Con: 23%
Green: 8%

Again, at that time, the BC NDP was riding high, the BC Libs were at a very low ebb and the BC Cons were led by former Con MP John Cummins who also received considerable media attention. The BC Greens were also dormant.

And the Chilliwack-Hope by-election results in April, 2012?

BC NDP: 42%
BC Lib: 32%
BC Con: 25%

A split centre-right/right vote with no Green candidate.

Today's political dynamics in BC are completely different. The BC Libs are actually cruising along quite well (for the most part), the BC NDP continues to suffer internal schisms, the BC Cons are D-E-A-D, and the BC Greens have considerable media exposure with Andrew Weaver.

In epilogue, I voted Lib federally and was ecstatic about the fed outcome. Folk posting here are obviously not only anti-Con, but anti-Lib, anti-Green and seem to worship at the altar of the NDP. Does not make for logical political analysis when one is wearing such a set of orange-coloured eye-glasses.

[Lotuslander]

We should take anything "lotuslander" says with a boulder of salt since his main purpose in life seems to be to act out on his "NDP derangement syndrome"

Oh, great, our local NDP-hater is back.

You know Lotuslander, than you are swinging no votes to Greens by campaigning here?

Haha. The NDP "Über Alles" crowd. Know that type. Even with the fed NDP collapsing to 12% federally in Canada (and to 13% in BC) with the Forum Research opinion poll results released today.

In that vein, a guy called Brad Zubyk was a former BC NDP strategist. He left the BC NDP and joined the BC Liberals. Why? Because he saw how the BC NDP operates. It operates "akin to a church" and anyone opposing the BC NDP's views would be considered blasphemous and be ostracized with a proverbial holy jihad placed against 'em. Kinda freaky.

In 2013, the BC NDP ran a very credible candidate in the BC provincial riding of Vancouver-False Creek - Matt Toner. Was a 30's-something high tech guy with green leanings. Back then I thought the BC NDP had its best candidate catch ever. Van-FC was a strong BC Lib riding and he lost.

Within the past year, Matt Toner left the BC NDP for the BC Green Party. Why? "The BC NDP is full of 1990's era politicians dealing with 1960's era solutions".

Sorry. But for all ya NDP church folk here.... I have zero tolerance for your Jehovah Witness cult-like crap. Period.

[Lotuslander]

If you understand it so well, why do you need to post dubious polls or tell outright lies to make your point?

Sorry buds. I have posted no dubious polls here. And 2 separate polls on BC Hydro's Site C dam corroborate each other. You are too enamoured with the BC NDP to consider otherwise.

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Sorry, but you are not in sync with both the facts and BC public opinion. Period. I know that. You don't.

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$1,000 (with 10 brown ones). And we will have the moderator here act as intermediary. Deal?

[Lotuslander]

3.Given that you said that you think John Horgan is in third in the favorable ratings when everybody who is in sync with B.C public opinion knows Christy Clark is literally hated by many British Columbians (and not just New Democrats) and is in a far distant third in the ratings, it's clearly you who don't know anything about B.C public opinion.

I know well enough that Horgan is mocked and held in contempt by both BC NDPers and the voting public (those who know him). Basically "Tom Mulcair on steriods". Or the "anti-Justin Trudeau". All the relevant data is out there. Not rocket science.

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It's a deal! Don't worry... I am sure that I can get one of the BC moderators here to act as intermediary. If not, you are in Richmond. I am in White Rock. Close enough.

[Lotuslander]

Which is evident based on the 95% support Horgan received at the NDP convention held a few days ago.

Haha. Ya now kiddin' me? How do ya think the NDP church faithful would vote at their last convention before e-day? For another leadership convention? Good grief!

BTW, the $1,000 bet is on. I am very serious. Don't welch on the bet. "Cause ya will never hear the end of it from me!!!

[Lotuslander]

It's pretty common knowledge that the BC Liberals are petrified of John Horgan. He has a common touch, is a hit with blue collar workers and call also charm the Board of Trade. When the BC NDP was picking a successor to carol James, the BC Liberals were on their hands and knees praying to God that the NDP would NOT pick Horgan since they knew he would be impossible to beat.

The rabidly right wing BC "Liberal" (aka Social Credit) Gov't is clearly on the way out

OK. Now I definitely know that ya ain't from BC. Even the most hardcore BC NDP supporters here have never even come close to sayin' anything akin to that.

A bit of a reality check. A centre-left, "soft" BC NDP supporter wrote an opinion piece just last week... which also hit a nerve on the Twittersphere with agreement from many other "soft" BC NDP supporters. Looks like the fed Trudeau win has caused some reverberations out here in BC in terms of having a provincial "fed Liberal type party" that's electable and can replace the incumbent BC Liberals:

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http://www.vancouverobserver.com/opinion/why-isnt-christy-clark-facing-fight-her-life-over-triple-deletes

[Lotuslander]

That soft BC NDP supporter is just concern trolling. The election campaign is years from now, it's too early to make any type of prediction, and that includes the predictions of Clark's "inevitable demise".

And I suppose that you are just another hardcore NDP supporter as well with that diatribe? From Ontario? Man, is this site totally infested with just NDPers? When only 12% of Canadians now support the fed NDP according to the latest Forum Research opinion poll? Reality check - Another 88% of Canadians support someone else!

PS. I know the author of the foregoing article - guy's name is Paul Hillsdon and he's a BCer - unlike most others posting here! And he wrote in the centre-left Vancouver Observer to boot.

PPS. BC election is just 17 months away!

[Lotuslander]

Your idiotic view that everybody who disagrees with you is 'a hardcore NDP supporter' with a diatribe (nobody is posting diatribes except you) is getting very tiresome.

I'd ask you to go away, as it's becoming apparently you are a troll as much as anything else, but I want to collect my $1,000 first.

Sorry Adam. You are completely outta touch with BC politics as well. I def know that from your previous postings and your attempted (however political illiterate) backing of the BC NDP . And, as such, I know that ya will owe me $1,000! Don't welch... 'cause I will come and collect. Seriously. When I talk the talk... I always walk the walk.

PS. That's why ya are an BC NDP voter (with some Green salad tossed in).

PPS. When someone throws in ad hominems like yourself... bluntly tells me that they don't have a leg to stand on.

[Lotuslander]

And I must say also: we're talking about the *provincial* NDP here.  The way lotuslander's going about it, it's like the BCNDP's heading for (and moreover, *deserves*) an equivalent to 12% oblivion, and a "Dosanjih wipeout", etc.

That's not reality; that angy-ex-husband bile.

You are clearly misrepresenting what I actually previously stated. Again, Forum Research's opinion poll from Wednesday had the NDP at 12% federally and 13% right here in BC. Undoubtedly the largest collapse of support that I have ever seen happen so quickly. Why is that relevant? 'Cause it's quite apparent that roughly 90% of folk posting here are NDP supporters - obviously not representative of the electorate at large.

As for the 2 upcoming BC by-elections, your subsequent post is somewhat apropos and relevant to BC as well:

Though given what's just transpired federally and the psychological impact that might have... I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's pushed back to around the 10th percentile or less...   there's wind in the Liberal brand's sails

[Lotuslander]

But again--that's the *federal* NDP.  We're dealing here with the *provincial* BCNDP--a party without the traditional third-party stigma we see in Ontario; and indeed, one whose own (in spite of itself?) big tent encompasses a lot of present-day "Justin Liberals", i.e. those who were leaning Mulcair until they joined the Red Wave in the end.

Which is also to say: because of the special binary case that is BC (as opposed to three-party Ontario, where there's more inherent fed + prov echo), let's wait until we see *provincial* polling to judge whether the BCLibs are getting a "Justin bump" here.

Correct to a point. But has been already posted all over the 'net about the Insights West opinion poll of BC residents on e-day (exit poll of actual voters), that 44% of NDP voters in BC only selected the NDP as their second choice. First choice was either the Liberals or Greens federally.

Suspect that these 44% of NDP voters in BC selected the NDP as their second choice as they perceived the federal Liberals as moribund in BC to their own peril. And that they were in both 2008 and 2011. Would have resulted in a 14.5% fed NDP popular vote share in BC... even less than Ontario.

Will tell ya right now that the 13% federal NDP support in BC (Forum Research) will also have an impact upon BC provincial voting intentions in terms of any future "CATI polling" in BC. Haven't seen the NDP poll that low in BC federally since the 1990's Audrey McLaughlin NDP.

Conversely, as ya stated, the JT psychological win effect will also positively impact the BC Lib political brand. Not by much. But by at least a few points. Just political reality.

In any event, anyone who has any political instinct here in BC can quite obviously discern that the BC NDP has major problems - unseen since after the 2001 debacle - leadership, financial, media exposure, internal schisms, resource development schisms, etc., etc.

As long-time (couple of decades) Global BC News political reporter Keith Baldrey recently stated: "The BC Liberals are a lot closer to the centre of the political spectrum than the BC NDP". And that's also close to where the federal Liberals are as well. FWIW, elections are always won by votes from the centre of the electorate. Not the "wings".

PS. I forgot to mention the BC Green Party and Andrew Weaver. Now changes the BC poli dynamic moving forward as well and further complicates matters for the BC NDP with the Green's own "wedge issues". No doubt about that.

[Lotuslander]

speculate all you want Lotuslander..,your predications for BC in the federal election were virtually all dead wrong. You seemed so 100% certain the Green Party would win Victoria that I actually felt sorry for the humiliation you must have felt when the NDP held it easily and won 14 seats in BC, the largest number since 1988.

Everybody had Victoria pegged for the Greens. What happened? The NDP and Mulcair kept stating throughout his BC tours in the BC media that "Only the NDP can defeat the Cons"... insinuating that the Liberals were D-E-A-D (and Greens risky choice). Feel sorry for the poor saps that bought into that false meme.

As a matter of fact, again, Insights West held an election day "exit poll" of actual BC voters. An astounding 44% of NDP voters in BC voted NDP as their SECOND choice. IOW, either the Liberals or Greens were their FIRST choice! Van Isle had the highest level of these voters BTW.

Had these folk actually voted their first choice, both Victoria and Vancouver Island would have seen completely different riding maps/outcomes. Along with the rest of BC.

Even then the fed NDP in BC dropped 7% popular vote share from 2011, dropped into 3rd place in BC in terms of popular vote share, and lost Surrey Centre/Surrey Newton.

Now back to the forthcoming BC by-elections:

1. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant:

- Pete Fry will be running for the BC Greens and had previously garnered 2nd top councillor spot for the municipal Greens (with transposed results within the riding boundaries) during the November, 2014 Vancouver municipal election.

- Matt Toner (2013 BC NDP candidate in neighbouring Vancouver-False Creek provincial riding and the best catch for the BC NDP in 2013 IMHO who is a 30's-something hi-tech entrepreneur) jumped over to the BC Greens earlier this year and wanted to run for the Greens here but stepped aside for Pete Fry; Toner, BTW, is now BC Green finance critic;

- Diana Day, who ran for the BC NDP nomination in this by-election, has now decided to back the BC Green's Pete Fry;

2. Coquitlam Burke Mountain:

- Joe Keithley, who ran for the BC NDP nomination here in 2013, is now the BC Green candidate;

- BC NDP doesn't even have a potential candidate here yet;

As ya can see, considerable BC NDP ----> BC Green movement already happening in just these 2 constituencies. BC politics is gonna be a helluva lot of fun moving forward from here.

PS. Are ya also from Ontario like almost everyone else here seems to be?!

[Lotuslander]

No: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/ekos-seat-projection/

I'd been following our (EKOS) numbers in Victoria throughout the campaign. The Greens never had the lead there. In fact, it was the safest NDP seat on the island throughout the campaign.

If it weren't for the strong Green campaign, and the Liberal candidate dropping out, the Liberals would've been competitive there.

One only needs to look to the Elections Canada website for the popular vote share of Greater Victoria (all 4 ridings therein) confirming the Greens won the overall popular vote share:

Green: 32%
NDP: 30%
Liberal: 20%
CPC: 18%

BTW, the final Ekos numbers for BC (with n = 224) were:

CPC: 38%
Liberal: 28%
NDP: 23%
Green: 10%

Those Ekos numbers were wayyyyyy off and would have produced a completely different outcome for BC. Don't know how ya could extrapolate the Greater Victoria numbers as a subset from that same n = 224 for BC overall. With my own personal interaction with Frank Graves, I have always liked the guy and he is quite down to earth.

Yet, Ekos and IVR typically have terrible results historically here in BC. OTOH, Nanos (CATI) final numbers for BC were virtually bang-on in both 2011 and 2015 (for 3 major parties). Quite remarkable actually.

PS. Rick Pasin, president of the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce has announced he will seek nomination for the BC Liberals in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain by-election. With the BC NDP, OTOH, just hearing crickets.

[Lotuslander]

So now we're talking about the Greens winning "Greater Victoria"? How was anyone supposed to know you weren't talking about the riding?

We had been doing polling since January, so we had lots of data over time to look at, not just the final 224 cases.

Sigh. With all due respect Hatman, firstly read and comprehend what I post.

In any event, EKOS never produced a Victoria-specific riding poll. At all. EKOS only polled BC, over time, with smaller sample sizes. Even the final BC subset was n = 224. Any pollster worth his salt will tell ya that an n = 300 is the basic minimum for any sample size. The EKOS poll numbers only mattered federally overall.

And with Van Isle representing 25% of the BC n = 224 sample size, the result thereto would be worthless. Not to mention that Greater Victoria is even a smaller subset thereto.

Even then, what happens in January, 2015 in a "riding specific" poll is irrelevant. Only riding polls during the final week of the campaign count. And here in BC, only CATI riding polls. Not IVR or opt-in online panel. Historically they have terrible results here in BC.

That said, even on August 25, 2015, Insights West (with a much larger sample size) had the NDP at 39% and Greens at 30% on Van Isle. Personally understanding riding specific demographics and underlying provincial ridings and voting patterns thereto, the Greens "strength" has always been on the southern half of Van Isle - esp. in Greater Victoria.

http://www.cheknews.ca/new-insights-west-poll-shows-surging-greens-112894/

PS. I guess that ya are from Ontario as well?

[Lotuslander]

5.The protests against the 'restraint legislation' Bill Bennett brought in after getting reelected in 1983 was less to do with economics (as Social Credit had got reelected over it) but had more to do with anti union components and, even more so, with components that would have eliminated the Human Rights tribunal and other human rights related legislation.  You can say the anti union legislation is economics related, but the human rights stuff isn't all that much so.

Firstly, this thread is about CA by-elections. This thread drift tangent is irrelevant to same. Post a new thread if ya wanna discuss BC political history.

But your foregoing statement is completely incorrect fer chrise sakes and needs to be corrected. And, in that vein, some political history for ya. Just to back-track:

May, 1981 - BC economy humming along with an all-time low unemployment rate and high growth rate. One of best in Canada back in the day - albeit on then shaky ground for a plethora of reasons;

October, 1981 - BC economy falls off a cliff - Canadian prime rate approaches 20%, mortgage rates approach same (mortgage renewals brutal), forest industry collapses, bank foreclosures surge, etc., etc.  BC unemployment rate moving toward mid-teen range - major layoffs in private sector and major wage reductions; Basically a mini-depression - worst since the 1930`s in BC;

Back then, both public sector and private sector union contracts also contained a COLA (Cost of Living Allowance) clause to buffer the then high inflation rate (into teens) from the 1970`s into the 1980`s;

Then Socred premier Bennett legislated a `6% and 5%` wage restraint program for public sector workers. IOW, next public sector contractual wage increases would be limited to same. Even then, BC was facing major budget deficits.

Fast forward to the May 5, 1983 BC provincial election. At the beginning, the Socreds were doomed - with major previous `Dirty Tricks`scandals as well as the economic collapse. Then what happened?

BC NDP opposition leader Dave Barrett appeared on a Cranbrook radio talk show, during the 1983 BC election campaign, and a caller asked for his response on the Socreds `6% and 5%` wage restraint legislation. For the first time, Barrett acknowledged that the BC NDP would nix same if they formed gov`t. Back then, BCTV had its first satellite truck and appeared on scene from Cranbrook, BC. In fact, then (and even current) BCTV reporter John Daily reported live at the top of the BCTV`s Newhousr 6 pm newscast on Barrett`s announcement. (for those not in the know, BCTV`s Newshour was then Canada`s  most highly watched 6 pm provincial newscast).

Back then, public opinion polls were illegal during BC election campaigns. The political sh**te hit the fan after that. Socred internal riding polling even showed them leading BC NDP stronghold of New Westminster one week before e-day. On e-day, the Socreds increased their majority while the BC NDP lost seats. Had the election been held one week earlier... the BC NDP would have witnessed even more dire political consequences.

That`s the background. Post-election 1983, with continued economic malaise, high unemployment, and continued record deficits, the Socreds announced further austerity measures - major layoffs in the public sector and other major legislative changes in order to curb the ballooning deficit - from the incumbent Socred`gov`ts perspective.

Resulted in another political shock in BC (not mentioned during 1983 campaign). Major protests as a result. Culminated in a 25,000+ strong protest at now long-gone Empire Stadium. Operation Solidarity and the Solidarity Coalition they called themselves. They both became hi-jacked by the loony left. And actually became an extra-parliamentary opposition calling for general strikes and ouster of newly elected incumbent Socred gov`t.

Strangely enough, then opposition leader Dave Barrett and the BC NDP were strangely quiet during this upheaval. Obviously they would not oppose Operation Solidarity or the Solidarity Coalition as they represented the BC NDP base. But neither could the BC NDP oppose some of the Socred`s austerity measures for fear of alienating centrist voters.

By the early fall of 1983, a major public opinion poll (CATI back in those days with a roughly 80% response rate) on the matter appeared on the front page of the Vancouver Sun. The findings? Operation Solidarity and the Solidarity Coalition had just 19% public support. More tellingly, the Socreds were well ahead of the BC NDP in terms of public opinion.

Apparently, Socred premier Bennett was ready to pull the plug and call another immediate election with the ballot box question `Who runs BC? The elected gov`t or a militant extra-parliamentary opposition?

Then moderate BC NDP supporter and major private sector union leader Jack Munro (IWA - forestry) saw the writing on the wall (along with other moderates in the BC labour movement). Munro flew to Socred premier Bennett`s home in Kelowna and reached an agreement on various matters on behalf of other moderate BCers. To this day, the loony left within the BC NDP has never forgiven Munro. And the rest is history.

Just a synopsis.

How do I know about the foregoing? 10 - 15 years back, I took a 100-level BC politics elective course and wrote a major paper on same. Back in my UBC days.

In any event, it`s about time that we get back to regularly scheduled programming - CA by-elections.