Canadian by-elections, 2015

[King of Kensington]

Andrea Horwath's by-election winning streak is over. 

[King of Kensington]

Is there a good chance of a new NDP leader before 2018 now? I think it would be good for the party.

I agree.  Sacrificing 3 Toronto MPPs was inexcusable.  Andrea's defenders railed against "wine-sipping Toronto elitists" who didn't get her appeal to "everyday folks" in places outside Toronto like...Sudbury. 

[King of Kensington]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree hatman - I don't think they had to "run against Toronto elitists" in order to pick up 3 seats elsewhere, 2 of which were low hanging fruit and only one was a very big swing.

I don't think Andrea steps aside though.  

As a successor, I like the idea of Jagmeet Singh.  He's young, can appeal to multicultural communities and represents the most working class municipality in the GTA (save Oshawa) - would help bridge the Toronto/not-Toronto divide.  Catherine Fife is quite ambitious and I'm sure she'd run - as the most moderate or small-"l" liberal candidate.  Taras Natyshak I could see representing more of a "laborist" perspective.  

[King of Kensington]

I don't agree with the premise that the NDP *only* would have picked up Windsor, Sudbury and Oshawa if they had ticked off Toronto voters.  

And there's no route to government for the NDP without winning most of the seats in Toronto.  They could not do it with as few seats as Harris got (8 in 1999 I believe).  I don't know why raising this point is so controversial.

I thought Andrea was supposed to have introduced a "culture of winning" in the ONDP.

[King of Kensington]

Yes. I would say anti-Aboriginal racism shows up more at the ballot box.

[King of Kensington]

In Alabama and Mississippi, Obama got about 10% of the white vote.  10%!  Still, not denying that anti-Aboriginal racism shows up at the ballot box in much of the country. 

[King of Kensington]

First of all, Wynne is not a visible minority, so she is less alien to people than someone like Jagmeet would be. Yes, she's a lesbian, but we've already discussed how homophobia is less prevalent than racism in Ontario (especially in the north). Now, Southwestern Ontario is another matter...

Northern Ontario is more racist than it is homophobic but Southwestern Ontario is more homophobic than it is racist?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How do quickly work on fighting to eradicate racism if we say we should be skeptical of a Singh leadership run because the North would never vote for a Sikh from the GTA?

[King of Kensington]

I see hatman's point.  But the trend against the Liberals was already underway before Wynne was leader and there's certainly a huge overlap between those who dislike "Toronto elites" and people who are socially conservative (and just because the region is more socially conservative, a good number of voters abandoning the Libs would have been socially conservative).  Thus by the time of the 2014 election, these voters already weren't voting Liberal anyway.

Take Chatham-Kent-Essex, one of Ontario's most socially conservative ridings.  The Chatham area has often been called Ontario's "Deep South" (the NFB made a documentary about the Black community there and segregation in the 1950s) and it has a large evangelical population, and heavily Mennonite Leamington is in the riding as well.  The Liberals already fell by 19 points between 2007 and 2011, and it fell another 7 points between 2011 and 2014 and into third place.  The riding also has a significant blue collar/manufacturing presence as well and the ONDP did well there also.

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Fortunately, for the vast majority of Ontarians, a lesbian premier was not an issue.

[King of Kensington]

Definitely shades of "Hillary vs. Obama" in the last provincial election, with Wynne drawing from well-to-do professionals and urban multicultural communities, and Horwath drawing more from the white working class in rust belt towns. 

[King of Kensington]

Working class full stop. Under her leadership (whatever you think of it) the NDP have become relevant in Toronto banlieues.

The Liberals got far more support from racial minorities than the NDP did in the last election.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP actually lost ground in York South-Weston and throughout Scarborough in 2014.  The "wine-sipping Toronto elitists" critique rang hollow because it wasn't only "elite" Torontonians that rejected them.  The pocketbook populist strategy didn't resonate among working class Torontonians either.  Not to mention Davenport - a seat they lost - is a pretty low income riding.

[King of Kensington]

And in spite of the NDP's gains in SW Ontario and the "rust belt", they still came in third.  Social democratic parties draw disproportionately from major cities, and the "winning formula" draws large swaths of the working class + the progressive middle classes.

It's not as if they can make big gains in the Conservative heartland of central and eastern Ontario.  If the NDP wants to win more seats, Toronto has to be a central focus. 

[King of Kensington]

"Hillary vs. Obama" isn't a perfect analogy, obviously, but there were aspects of it in the 2014 election.

[King of Kensington]

When was the last time the NDP had 2 seats or less in Toronto at Queen's Park? Anyone???

Never.  Even in 1963, when they only had 7 seats in the province, they won 3 seats in Toronto - York South, Scarborough West and Yorkview.  

(Corrected as I had forgotten about Yorkview.)

[King of Kensington]

Are they in Toronto?

[King of Kensington]

BGM I can see the argument that it's "basically Toronto" but Oshawa is still very much its own entity culturally, even if part of the GTA.

But this argument doesn't exactly get the NDP off the hook, because 4 out of 45 seats isn't any more impressive than 2 out of 22 seats.  And there are fewer winnable 905 seats than 416 seats even in the best of scenarios.

If the NDP wants to displace the Liberals as the party for "liberally minded Ontarians" and have a NDP/Conservative polarization in Ontario, they have to drive the Liberals out of their stronghold.  Moving into Official Opposition or government requires that the NDP does much, much better in Toronto as the "southwest Ontario strategy" has mostly been accomplished.  I would say that's a far better route strategically than thinking the NDP is going to be driving out Conservatives in central and eastern Ontario - those that stuck with Hudak in that disastrous campaign for the PCs.

[King of Kensington]

and while Oshawa was once considered a separate city from Toronto - its now basically been absorbed by Toronto and is most made up of suburban commuters.

Nope.  Two-thirds of Oshawa workers commute to Oshawa or neighboring Whitby and Clarington.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes - but there aren't that many "low income" 905 seats.  And the 905 also includes rapidly growing York Region which is quite affluent.  Overall the 416 has more winnable seats for the NDP.  Toronto is also crucial.  Seats like York South-Weston, most of Scarborough etc. and yes, Davenport.  Harris got 8 out of 22 seats in Toronto in 1999, and the NDP will need more than that to form a majority government.

I'm not sure what the strategists were thinking.  While it seems pretty evident that sacrificing a few Toronto seats was worth it, I had no idea if they thought it would pay off in the outer 416 or if they were just simply focused elsewhere in the province.

Perhaps they made a fundamental error in thinking that because a core-periphery divide exists in municipal politics, ticking off the "wine sipping Toronto elites" would help.  It didn't.  This core-periphery divide doesn't really translate into provincial politics.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The majority of Torontonians don't live in SFHs.  Not sure what your definition of "super rich" is.

[King of Kensington]

Yes.  In 1990 the NDP formed government with no seats in Brampton.  Brampton is much bigger now and it's a place where the NDP would need to win more seats.  So yes, it matters more than in 1990, but as hatman says, a winning coalition excludes most of the 905 belt.

There are very few ridings that can actually be described as "fast growing" and "low income."  More typical of 905 fast-growth is found in York and Halton regions - not exactly NDP territory.

[King of Kensington]

Always the optimist!  But seriously, could the NDP really win more than half a dozen seats in the 905 belt?

[King of Kensington]

Let me put it this way: in a realistic "winning government" scenario you'd probably have at least twice as many seats in Toronto than in the 905 suburbs - in spite of the fast growth of the 905.

[King of Kensington]

Not entirely correct; Dhillon, who can in second in Brampton-Springdale is now on Brampton Council. There are a number of other NDP members in the 905 in governments:
Joanne Dies - Ajax city council
Nester Pidwerbecki - Regional/City Councillor, Oshawa
Colleen Jordan - Ajax Regional Councillor

Former municipal politicians:
Evelyn Buck - Aurora city council
Eric Carter - Brampton Council

That was just using Wikipedia! I'm sure there are others, I was looking at GTA 905 (so Peel, Halton, York and Durham)

Forget Aurora - it's a very affluent suburb/exurb filled with McMansions and "estates." 

Ajax - maybe.  The NDP did do well in Durham Region in 1990. 

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if they'll be some other resignations.  Maybe Tim Hudak going to the private sector?  Or perhaps Monte Kwinter will retire (of course people have said he's going to retire for about 15 years now).

[King of Kensington]

Maybe because the NDP didn't put any effort in rural central and eastern Ontario and voters saw the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories.  Of course neither party has to win these regions in order to form a government.

ETA: Added "rural" to preempt "But Mary Rita Holland in Kingston" responses.

[King of Kensington]

Central Ontario*

2014: 

PCs  160,815  38.6% 
Liberals  156,345  37.5%
NDP  74,541  17.9% 

2011:

PCs  167,719  45.8%
Liberals  113,015  30.9%
NDP  66,920  18.3%

* Barrie, Durham, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Northumberland, Peterborough, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe North and York-Simcoe.  Feel free to pick at this definition of central Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

I'm not surprised that the NDP is at 12% in a recent poll - while there are a few hundred hyper-partisan NDP activists in the country that hate the Liberals are either "exactly the same" as the Conservatives or actually worse, the vast majority of the NDP electorate is thrilled to see Harper gone and wishes Trudeau well.  I wouldn't read much into that, though I would agree that the NDP needs to go so through some real soul-searching beyond Anne McGrath's silly survey to the membership.  It may very well be that the party as of now has no real purpose anymore, but it's far too early to write the obituary.