Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Olivier might take some of the NDP vote as well. Hopefully not as much.

[Hatman 🍁]

How racist are people in Sudbury? First Nations candidates often face voter discrimination. One of the reasons the NDP was unable to win Kenora in the last couple of federal elections despite winning it provincially.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kenora voted the way it did because a Con fluked into 2nd over NDP in 2006, thus anointing the Cons as the "strategic anti-Liberal" option going into 2008, and then incumbent advantage in 2011...

Meanwhile, the provincial NDP gets majorities/near majorities in the provincial riding? OK. I've been told that Tania Cameron was a "terrible candidate" which I am afraid is probably code. You can't deny that the racism is pretty bad up there. The riding has a large Aboriginal population, and are certainly not the elite of towns like Kenora.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Rainy-River area isn't that much more NDP friendly than the rest of the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/ont/107/35.php?e=2014

[Hatman 🍁]

I think racism is more prevalent than sexual orientation discrimination up North these days, but perhaps Holmes could shed some light on the subject. It's true that the Liberals didn't do all that well up north this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was curious, so I did the math, and you're right:

Northern Ontario Change (2011-2014)
OLP: +2.93%
PC: -6.66%
NDP: +1.87%

This is higher than the provincial swing to the Liberals of 1.00%, indicating a trend of +1.93%.

[Hatman 🍁]

And of course, here's a map:



Probably a large correlation with social conservatism/economic populism.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maps not showing, can you post it in the gallery?

[Hatman 🍁]

Too bad for Olivier, but the I guess voters realize this is a 2-horse race. Voters upset with the Libs can just vote NDP. If Olivier really wanted to win, and stick it to the Libs, he should've run for the NDP. Not sure he'd have won the nomination, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gravelle is the MP for Nickel Belt, Thibeault was the MP for Sudbury.

[Hatman 🍁]

A Small part of Thibeault's riding is in Nickel Belt provincially, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

[Hatman 🍁]

Wikipedia says the Richelieu by-election is January 25, but I can't seem to find any sources on this. Am I right to assume that it hasn't actually been called yet? Does anyone know?

No, the 25th is the Liberal investiture convention. PLQ does that wierdly, there is even lenghtly profiles of every candidate on PLQ website. The candidates are Sylvain Dupuis, mayor of Saint-Ours, Benoît Théroux, financial security and insurance adviser and Nancy Sheridan, business consultant.

Thanks; I assume it hasn't been called then?

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn, Olivier seems to be pulling more from the NDP than Libs

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP up 36-33 in Sudbury, according to Forum: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/04/liberals-ndp-neck-and-neck-in-sudbury-byelection-poll-finds.html Olivier is down to 14%, so his collapse is helping the NDP, interestingly.

Brilliant news!

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Shawbonquit will win by about 5 points, but the Liberals will win the federal riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Profiling Sudbury: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/02/sudbury-provincial-by-election-today.html

Oh yeah, I'm predicting an NDP win. Take that, Eric Grenier!

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other polls (for those of us who ignore 308):

Oracle poll:
Thibeault: 41%
Shawbonquit: 26%
Olivier: 19%
Peroni: 11%
Robinson: 4%


Mainstreet Technologies:
Thibeault: 32%
Shawbonquit: 28%
Olivier: 14%
Peroni: 9%
Robinson: 4%

Bad, bad news.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like you're only using corruption to measure that list. I'd be putting Mike Harris at the top of any "worst premier list" (last 25 years).

[Hatman 🍁]

A Thibeault win now would just be awful.

[Hatman 🍁]

So far so good, but really close. Shawbonquit leading by 200 votes  with 49 polls in.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Rob Ford can still be a councillor, Wynne isn't going anywhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

10/238: 146 Thibault, 113 Shawbonquit. Really wish we had poll maps like the US, would make guesstimates easier.

Really? You could actually know what's going on in Sudbury with a map? I'm impressed.

Are you aware of what forum this is?

[Hatman 🍁]

People are tweeting that the Liberals are ahead

[Hatman 🍁]

People are tweeting that the Liberals are ahead

Do they know something we don't? Paikin is tweeting that the NDP leads.

Typically someone at a party HQ will have more up to date (if less accurate) numbers.