Canadian by-elections, 2015

[DC Al Fine]

I can see a First Nations candidate in Northern Ontario facing voter discrimination, much more than a candidate in Southern Ontario.

How far do you (or anyone else on the forum) think this extends? Would the same apply to an Aboriginal Tory or does it just stop white northerners from voting NDP?

[DC Al Fine]

Thibeault is losing by a decent amount. I was cynical enough to think he'd run away with the race because no one would care what he did. Even if he wins I'm glad to be proven wrong.

[DC Al Fine]

I like how some people seriously think that some seats in downtown Toronto are so important that Horwatch should step down, as if they're more important than Whitby-Oshawa, or Niagara, or Kitchener-Waterloo, or London West. Obviously the NDP needs to be able to do well in Toronto to win government, but the province outside of Toronto is also very important and Horwath has performed well there. And don't forget that Marchese was on his way out anyway, and it was a miracle that he even held on in 2011.

Singh would be an awesome leader, I think. But his ethnicity would be toxic in northern Ontario.

And therein lies a problem for the NDP. How do they keep their coalition together? It seems when they appeal to the working class left, they bleed cultural left voters and vice versa.

[DC Al Fine]

As an aside;

What was the story with the Uppal/Ford elections? Was there a legitimate ideological difference between the two or was Ford the sore loser of a nomination contest?

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Most of the people who are vehemently against gay marriage and vote Liberal are products of a long outdated alignment and are rapidly dying off.*

The Obama/Appalachia seems apt here. While Wynne doesn't have the "job killer" reputation that Obama does, she comes off as an elitist Toronto type, so formerly Liberal voters are either going for the socon Tories or the populist NDP to represent their interests.

*My late Grandfather was one of these. An ethnic Catholic originally, he voted Liberal to the day he died despite having social views that were somewhat to the right of Stockwell Day.

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario elections aren't really determined by "social conservatism" - but there are certainly people who are homophobic at the ballot box.  Most are already Tories anyway, but surely there were that preferred Horwath to Wynne for that reason if they didn't like Hudak's economic program.

Most of the people who are vehemently against gay marriage and vote Liberal are products of a long outdated alignment and are rapidly dying off.*

These people still exist, but they're mostly immigrants in places like Scarborough. (Think of all the Ford Nation voters who vote Liberal provincially or federally). I'm a bit surprised that these voters still stuck with the Liberals in 2014, but perhaps living in a cosmopolitan city like Toronto helps with the idea of voting for a lesbian despite culturally conservative beliefs. Still, the Liberals saw a swing against them in riding with high immigrant populations like Scarborough-Rouge River, York West and Etobicoke North.

Ok, you are right.

It's arguable how much of the liberal decline in areas where they did decline in 2014 was due to homophobia manifesting at the ballot box, but generally these areas have been trending away from the liberals for quite some time. Even immigrant-heavy places in the GTA. Not that long ago the NDP was non-existent in places like Scarborough Rouge-River and the Liberals would get two-thirds of the vote. 2011 was where the NDP and Conservatives really started breaking through in immigrant-heavy Liberal strongholds.

I think the NDP could do a reasonable facsimile of the Tories "values" campaign in 2011. Instead of insinuating the Liberals are patronizing and that only the Tories can represent your values, insinuate that the Liberals are patronizing and only the NDP can represent your economic interests.

[DC Al Fine]

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

The Liberal margin of victory in suburban 416 has gone down a lot since 2003, but let's be reminded that the NDP won more 416 seats in 2003 than in 2014, including a 27 point NDP win in Beaches and a 16 point win in Trin-Spa.

Those ridings are more BoBoish are they not?

Remind me how well the ONDP were doing amongst such voters ten years ago.

To use the ridings Hatman mentioned above; terribly.

[DC Al Fine]

Well Dartmouth South was a reasonably solid NDP seat prior to the 2013 Liberal landslide in Nova Scotia - interesting to see if the NDP can win it back...it could be an opportunity for a leadership candidate who is not currently in caucus.

Don't think so. Here's the most recent poll with the change since the last election in brackets.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 58% (+12)
PC:  20% (-6)
NDP: 18% (-9)
Green: 4% (+3)

The NDP lost by 13 points last time. Add on the swing and that's a hell of a deficit to overcome.

[DC Al Fine]

Except Dartmouth is not an historically working class NDP city like Hamilton is. Hamilton East might be the most natural NDP district in the province. Meanwhile, the NDP has only been relevant in Nova Scotia (outside Cape Breton) since the late 1990s. And Dartmouth isn't exactly the same as Hamilton. It's mostly suburban, though certainly not as well of as a typical 905 suburb.

To add to what Hatman said, Darmouth South is one of the better off parts of Dartmouth. Besides, the McNeil government is polling in the mid 50's. I could see an NDP pickup in one of the Cole Harbour ridings or Darmouth North which is working class, but went Liberal because the NDP MLA was corrupt, but I don't see any reason for a massive swing in some random middle class riding right now.

[DC Al Fine]

There will almost certainly be an austerity budget in NS next week. That ought to put the Liberals back to more reasonable numbers (read: 45% not 60%). I agree with lilTommy that Dartmouth South should be a write-off for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals need to tank quickly if the NDP wants to hold either seat. These are two seats with some actual NDP history to them, so I shouldn't be so quick to write them off. Gosse won with 71% in 2009 and Corbett had over 80%! Both narrowly lost in 2013, though.

All is not lost. Those two ridings have a significant number of ancestral NDP voters, which is not something they have in most of Nova Scotia. Even though they only won the ridings by a few %, the NDP is in much better shape in Industrial Cape Breton than in say Queens-Shelburne or Chester-St. Margaret's.

[DC Al Fine]

How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

The Pas is not an urban riding

There are urban, suburban, rural and arse end of nowhere ridings. The Pas is the latter.

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia by-election results can be viewed here, starting at 8pm Atlantic time tomorrow.

I still predict holds in all three seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Since the polls close in 20 min

And it appears I haven't missed much since I was away. I was hoping for another major shift like at the end of June.

Welcome back!  So tell us, what's going to happen in the three Nova Scotia provincial by-elections tomorrow?

The Liberals had an extended honeymoon with massive leads, but this recently decreased with their recent austerity budget. The province's finances chronically terrible and the government mishandled cuts to film subsidies. The polls are more or less match the last election results.

Dartmouth South should be an easy Liberal hold. A no-name Liberal won it comfortably last time, and there are no local factors at play.

The more interesting races are in Cape Breton Centre and Sydney-Whitney Pier. Both seats were barely saved by the NDP, in large part due to popular incumbents who have since retired. The Liberals would normally have been expected to pick up both seats but the seats in questions are the only bastions of NDP tribalism* in Nova Scotia and the Liberals have faltered in the polls recently. Both seats are tossups.

Success for the Liberals would be gaining either or both of the Cape Breton seats. The NDP would call it a success if they hold onto both of their seats convincingly. It would be a resounding success for them if they won Dartmouth South. The Tories will call it a win if they place second in Dartmouth South

*The kind of "I vote _____ because my father and his father voted _____" loyalty that the Tories and Liberals enjoy but the NDP almost never does.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm predicting Liberal wins in all three.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/07/three-nova-scotia-provincial-by.html

Watch the Liberals pick up only one seat and us both be wrong

[DC Al Fine]

Ugh, if the NDP pulls Dartmouth South off, I could get all three races wrong

[DC Al Fine]

Wow! DC got all three wrong!

I will now accept the egg in my face

[DC Al Fine]

Another factor: The only major issue this government has had is their cuts to the film tax credit, which caused a huge outcry. That is definitely more of a Halifax issue than a Cape Breton one.

The NDP in Cape Breton is looking rather dire. In fact, the two MLA's from their original breakthrough (Jeremy Akerman & Paul MacEwan) are now Liberals his is another example of the NDP's gradual shift from prairie populists and industrial workers to white collar public servants and the creative class.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if they'll be some other resignations.  Maybe Tim Hudak going to the private sector?  Or perhaps Monte Kwinter will retire (of course people have said he's going to retire for about 15 years now).

Kwinter? He'll die in office.

[DC Al Fine]

The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

Indeed, although we're what, three years out from an election? Let's start speculating in 2017.

[DC Al Fine]

Well this should be fun. Two sets of Tory signs, two sets of NDP signs, Wildrose signs...

Is there any record of provincial by-elections during a federal campaign or vice versa?

[DC Al Fine]

There's been some coverage of Liberal mailouts attacking Patrick Brown in the upcoming by-election. I assume the old tradition of giving the other leader a free pass in their by-election is dead?

[DC Al Fine]

There's been some coverage of Liberal mailouts attacking Patrick Brown in the upcoming by-election. I assume the old tradition of giving the other leader a free pass in their by-election is dead?

Was it ever used in Ontario? Remember John Tory by-election.

Did a quick Wiki search.

It was used up until John Tory. The Liberals ran a candidate against him in both the by-election when he became leader (unexpected) and the by-election after he lost in 2007 (more expected).

[DC Al Fine]

Wildrose, NDP statistically tied in Calgary-Foothills by-election

[DC Al Fine]

Plus there are the Trudeau honeymoon and Flaherty/Elliot personal votes.