Stabenow: I'm running in 2018

[RogueBeaver]

For now, at least.

[Free Bird]

Not unexpected

[dmmidmi]

Expect this race to start off as "Lean Dem," then quickly fall to "Likely Dem," and stay there until election day.

Though, I definitely am interested to see who the MI-GOP will throw their weight behind. Camp, Rogers, and Amash wouldn't jump into an open-seat race, so it seems highly unlikely that any of them jump in the ring against Stabenow. None of the current US House members seem likely to do so.

Maybe Randy Richardville? Jase Bolger would get smoked in the general.

[Free Bird]

Snyder maybe just because?

[Vosem]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI and WI as well as IL and MD and ME and ME should be blue in 2018, but the senate race is a slam dunk for us in 2018. We aren't gonna have lackluster candidates that we had in 2010 or in 2014, we will have marquee candidates, especially in the ILLINOIS gov and perhaps a Clinton W.H. that will do a much better job at campaigning and redistricting is on the line.

[Kevin]

MI and WI as well as IL and MD and ME and ME should be blue in 2018, but the senate race is a slam dunk for us in 2018. We aren't gonna have lackluster candidates that we had in 2010 or in 2014, we will have marquee candidates, especially in the ILLINOIS gov and perhaps a Clinton W.H. that will do a much better job at campaigning and redistricting is on the line.

And this relates to Debbie Stabenow how?!

[SWE]

MI and WI as well as IL and MD and ME and ME should be blue in 2018, but the senate race is a slam dunk for us in 2018. We aren't gonna have lackluster candidates that we had in 2010 or in 2014, we will have marquee candidates, especially in the ILLINOIS gov and perhaps a Clinton W.H. that will do a much better job at campaigning and redistricting is on the line.

The wave is so strong Maine goes Democrat twice?

[dmmidmi]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

You have to go back a long way in Michigan history to identify an outgoing Governor that had any real success after leaving office. The last ex-Governor that ran for a Senate seat was Soapy Williams--who was a popular Governor, by most standards--and he lost to Robert P. Griffin pretty handily.

[Vosem]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

You have to go back a long way in Michigan history to identify an outgoing Governor that had any real success after leaving office. The last ex-Governor that ran for a Senate seat was Soapy Williams--who was a popular Governor, by most standards--and he lost to Robert P. Griffin pretty handily.

George Romney served in the Cabinet and John Swainson was appointed to the Michigan Supreme Court, though to be fair those are different types of success. (Swainson resigned from the SCoMI to run for an open Senate seat in 1976, but he was convicted of perjury and actually never returned to public office after the resignation).

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No one will seriously contend this if they got blown out in 2014 in an open race. Michigan is gone on the federal level.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is notable that Rick Snyder is term-limited in 2018.

[Talleyrand]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

[IceSpear]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

[Talleyrand]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

[IceSpear]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

That's true, but didn't you say you thought Republicans were favored to win the presidency in 2016? I could be mistaking you for someone else.

[Talleyrand]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

That's true, but didn't you say you thought Republicans were favored to win the presidency in 2016? I could be mistaking you for someone else.

I do think they're favored, but it's ridiculous to pretend this seat isn't vulnerable. The main reason Stabenow won by such a large margin in 2012, besides it being a great Democratic year, was the total implosion of her opponent. Assuming she faces someone like Snyder or one of the congressmen, she's going to be in a serious fight.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016 (which I suspect is more likely than not), then she may fall victim to a GOP sweep.  But even if she doesn't, it's quite possible that she may still lose, at least with a strong candidate.  There are a slew of Republicans who could make it close, including Land, Upton, Walberg, Miller, Bishop, or Rogers.

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

That's true, but didn't you say you thought Republicans were favored to win the presidency in 2016? I could be mistaking you for someone else.

I do think they're favored, but it's ridiculous to pretend this seat isn't vulnerable. The main reason Stabenow won by such a large margin in 2012, besides it being a great Democratic year, was the total implosion of her opponent. Assuming she faces someone like Snyder or one of the congressmen, she's going to be in a serious fight.

I think she'd beat Snyder, since he's so unpopular (although less so than before).  But since he was popular enough to win reelection, it's possible that he could beat her.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Republicans couldn't recruit a candidate good enough to challenge for an open seat in 2014 - the best year ever with Rick Snyder on the ticket running for reelection. They should just ignore this. Why would you bother wasting the money when there are bound to be pick up opportunities especially if Hillary is elected. Why even bother here? Michigan is dead for the GOP.

[LeBron]

Good to know. I've always liked Stabenow more than I did Levin, and I think Peters/Stabenow will be a strong and ideal combo we'll have for a long time.

Plus given the amount of defense the party will have to play in 2018, it will be vital that as many Democratic incumbents run as possible like Klobuchar, Brown, Kaine, Heitkamp and yes, Stabenow.

As I recall, in elections Stabenow's been a pretty strong incumbent. Good fundraiser, and the race's were called for her right upon poll closing times in 2006 and 2012 (granted, the 2012 challenger was a full-fledged racist), but who's to say the Michigan GOP won't screw up again in nominating a whack-o-bird? For all we know, they might be dumb enough to nominate the reindeer hunter Kerry Bentivolio for the race.

[Vosem]

Michigan is dead for the GOP.

That's a rather odd claim, since the GOP controls all statewide executive positions, both chambers of the state legislature safely, and a 9-5 majority in the House election. Although it does typically lose Senate and presidential elections, those are the only ones. The Republican Party is, on balance, probably the stronger of the two in Michigan.

With that said, it probably doesn't make much sense for the Republican Party to make Stabenow a target in 2018 when there's so much lower-hanging fruit, and she probably won't be challenged too seriously. But that doesn't mean the MIGOP isn't quite strong.

[DrScholl]

They control the legislature and the congressional delegation due to gerrymandering, and only wins statewide elections because they are in midterms. When the people actually turnout to vote, the GOP loses (see recent presidential elections).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Michigan is dead for the GOP.

That's a rather odd claim, since the GOP controls all statewide executive positions, both chambers of the state legislature safely, and a 9-5 majority in the House election. Although it does typically lose Senate and presidential elections, those are the only ones. The Republican Party is, on balance, probably the stronger of the two in Michigan.

With that said, it probably doesn't make much sense for the Republican Party to make Stabenow a target in 2018 when there's so much lower-hanging fruit, and she probably won't be challenged too seriously. But that doesn't mean the MIGOP isn't quite strong.

OK yes, some of the statewide positions are winnable, but I believe non-state legislature positions are a result of 2010 and 2014. Extremely lucky for the waves. The House edge is a lucky part of a natural gerrymander as it is with most places due to minorities being concentrated and voting in unison. (District 1 might even be considered a political gerrymander though not a horrible one.) Smallest D margin of victory was 24 percent while only 2/9 republicans had larger margins. They will not win statewide except in extreme circumstances like the last 2 midterms and almost certainly not a Senate race.

Perhaps I shouldn't have said the party is dead - there are significantly worse state parties - but you hit what I was trying to say in that Senate and Presidential elections are a lost cause. Governor post-Snyder is very likely to be that way too though I guess they could surprise. There's just too many other realistic targets to defend that I don't view it as worth the cost.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

You have to go back a long way in Michigan history to identify an outgoing Governor that had any real success after leaving office. The last ex-Governor that ran for a Senate seat was Soapy Williams--who was a popular Governor, by most standards--and he lost to Robert P. Griffin pretty handily.

George Romney served in the Cabinet and John Swainson was appointed to the Michigan Supreme Court, though to be fair those are different types of success. (Swainson resigned from the SCoMI to run for an open Senate seat in 1976, but he was convicted of perjury and actually never returned to public office after the resignation).

Right, but it has been a long time since an outgoing Michigan Governor was subsequently elected to office.

Michigan is dead for the GOP.

That's a rather odd claim, since the GOP controls all statewide executive positions, both chambers of the state legislature safely, and a 9-5 majority in the House election. Although it does typically lose Senate and presidential elections, those are the only ones. The Republican Party is, on balance, probably the stronger of the two in Michigan.

The state GOP did an excellent job of carving up the state into a few majority-minority districts, and a bunch of districts that are just Republican enough that it's difficult for Democrats to win there. For instance, the City of Lansing is split into two Congressional Districts (MI-08 includes East Lansing and some of the more liberal parts of Mid-Michigan, but that's completely offset by including Livingston county). Extremely liberal Muskegon county is packed into MI-02, along with some of the most conservative parts of the state. But, look at Democratic performance in the districts represented by Dingell, Conyers, and Kildee.

However, the state GOP also benefits from a few strong incumbents. The day Fred Upton retires is the day you can expect MI-06 to instantly become competitive. Dan Benishek has won a couple of close races (though his election bids have been boosted by a more conservative MI-01 than in decades past) in a seemingly competitive district.

The state Democrats have some issues to sort out, for sure. But to say that the GOP is "the stronger" party in Michigan--where a Republican has failed to win Michigan's electoral votes since Guns n' Roses were popular, and only one Republican has been sent to the Senate since the 1970s--is false.

No one will seriously contend this if they got blown out in 2014 in an open race. Michigan is gone on the federal level.

This is the closest to reality. That, and I'm hard-pressed to think of a Republican that's savvy enough to evenly match up with Stabenow. She booted an incumbent in a 50-50 year--do you really think she'll be shown the door in anything other than a massive landslide year for the GOP?

[dmmidmi]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

That's true, but didn't you say you thought Republicans were favored to win the presidency in 2016? I could be mistaking you for someone else.

I do think they're favored, but it's ridiculous to pretend this seat isn't vulnerable. The main reason Stabenow won by such a large margin in 2012, besides it being a great Democratic year, was the total implosion of her opponent. Assuming she faces someone like Snyder or one of the congressmen, she's going to be in a serious fight.

Just like every other outgoing Michigan Governor, Snyder's approvals will be in the dumps the day he leaves office.

With respect to Stabenow's large 2012 victory--the problem here is that the MI-GOP's bench is packed full of candidates that are good enough to win competitive US House races and a few lower-level races, but definitely prove that they aren't ready for primetime when they enter a more high-profile race (like Governor or Senate). Part of this has to do with where these Republicans call home (Justin Amash and Terri Lynn Land are both from Grand Rapids, Mike Rogers is from Howell, Dave Camp is from Midland, Pete Hoekstra is from Holland), part of this is that the candidates simply aren't skilled (Mike Bouchard, Dick DeVos, Mike Cox, Rocky Raczkowski, and the aforementioned Land and Hoekstra).

The problem isn't that Republicans lose these races because the candidates implode--it's because their bench, with respect to these types of races, kinda sucks.