Gubernatorial Term Limits
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  Gubernatorial Term Limits
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Author Topic: Gubernatorial Term Limits  (Read 1237 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: January 05, 2015, 06:03:48 PM »



Blue: 2 consecutive term limit
Red: 2 lifetime term limit
Green: 8 out of 12 year term limit (IN, OR), 8 out of 16 year term limit (MT, WY)
Yellow: 1 consecutive term limit
Grey: No term limits

In effect, these governors are term limited in 2015:

Steven Beshear (D-KY)
Bobby Jindal (R-LA)

in 2016:

Jack Markell (D-DE)
Jay Nixon (D-MO)
Earl Tomblin (D-WV)

in 2017:

Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)

in 2018:

Robert Bentley (R-AL)
Jerry Brown (D-CA)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
Rick Scott (R-FL)
Nathan Deal (R-GA)
Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Paul LePage (R-ME)
Rick Snyder (R-MI)
Brian Sandoval (R-NV)
Susana Martinez (R-NM)
John Kasich (R-OH)
Mary Fallin (R-OK)
John Kitzhaber (D-OR)
Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Dennis Dauggard (R-SD)
Bill Haslam (R-TN)
Matt Mead (R-WY)

Looks like we'll be seeing a lot of new governors in 2018!
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2015, 06:07:47 PM »

2018 will be interesting - Republicans are close to maxing out Governorships, while Democrats are close to maxing out Senate seats. Whoever is in power could very seriously reverse it.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2015, 06:47:21 PM »

Very neat, thank you!

Is California in error though? Because Jerry Brown has certainly served more than 2 terms.

I also find it interesting that there is no real partisan factor to lacking term limits because that is usually a right wing thing.

D states: NY, CT, VT, MA, MN, IL, WA
Toss-up: IA, WI, NH
R states: ND, TX, UT, ID

Those tossups are usually Lean D, so historically speaking I guess it is the more left populaces that lack term limits as expected. Texas is somewhat understandable as well since their governor is basically treated like the god defending the republic haha. The other three don't make as much sense though. Probably from settlement of the territories, but I don't know.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2015, 07:12:35 PM »

Is California in error though? Because Jerry Brown has certainly served more than 2 terms.

State law has changed since 1974. Not sure when it changed into 2 lifetime term limit, but it must have excluded all the governors before the change because Brown wouldn't be able to be governor today if not.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2015, 07:37:31 PM »

I feel like I'm logic-failing here, but how aren't 2-consecutive term limit and 8/12 years the same thing?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2015, 08:55:48 PM »

Perhaps that deals with partial terms? For example:
2006: elected ltg
2009: gov resigns
2010: elected governor

Then the question would be, is this person eligible to run in 2014? He would already have 5 years under his belt. Another term would be a 2nd consecutive term, but it would bring to 9 years total. That's one possible situation. Rare situation so just a technicality due to different wording.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2015, 02:33:18 PM »

Is California in error though? Because Jerry Brown has certainly served more than 2 terms.

State law has changed since 1974. Not sure when it changed into 2 lifetime term limit, but it must have excluded all the governors before the change because Brown wouldn't be able to be governor today if not.
Proposition 140 was passed in November 1990. It implemented term limits for state executive officers, the legislature, and state board of equalization. In addition, it eliminated pensions for state officials, other than Social Security, and limited spending for the legislature.

The provision in the constitution for the governor is straightforward.   Article V, Section 2 reads, "No governor may serve more than two terms."

But Proposition 140 also added Article XX (miscellaneous subjects), Section 7, which provided that term limits only applied to terms that began after January 1, 1990.   It also defined a partial term that was more than half a full term, to count as a term (Arnold Schwarzenegger served 3-1/2 years in his first term, and was term limited).  Gray Davis only served half a year of his second term, so is eligible for election, as is George Deukmejian who was finishing his second term when Proposition 140 was passed.

Proposition 140 also said that a senator elected in 1988 (and thus not on the ballot in 1990) would have that term (1988-1992) counted as one of his maximum of two.  So it did have some  retroactive effect.

I suspect that the transitional language was written in the way that it was primarily in consideration of the legislature, which would have most of its members termed out, even those re-elected in 1990.   It probably would have been considered quite remote that any of the living ex-governors: Pat Brown (Jerry Brown's father), Ronald Reagan, Jerry Brown, or Deukmejian would seek to be elected governor again.  It was 36 years (1974 to 2010) between Brown's two elections to begin two terms.

Pat Brown and Reagan have since died, so only Deukmejian (age 86) and Gray Davis remain as former governors eligible for election as governor.  This picture from 2010 shows the 3 former governors who were eligible for election at that time

Interestingly, the opponents of Proposition 140 argued that it was placing a lifetime ban on additional service.   Most gubernatorial term limits are on the number of consecutive terms, or on the number of terms in a certain time period.

In 2012, when the term limits of the legislature were modified, the transitional language was added in the section of the Constitution for the legislature, so the pre-1990 exemption in Article XX remains in effect.

From November 1990-2012, term limits for senators were 2 terms (8 years) and assembly members (6 years).  Beginning in 2012, term limits are a combined limit of 12 years.  A legislature who has served in the legislature for 10 years is not eligible for election to the senate.

So there are three classes of persons:

(1) Those whose service began before 1990.  Since they were first elected before 2012, the old term limits apply, but their terms before 1990 do not count (except from 1988-1992 as a term for senator).
(2) Those whose service began after 1990, but before 2012.  The old term limits apply, even if they switch from the Assembly to the Senate, or vice versa.
(3) Those whose service began after 2012.  The new term limit applies.  The change in term limits were modified in June 2012, with immediate effect, so the new limits apply to legislators first elected in November 2012.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2015, 02:49:22 PM »

I feel like I'm logic-failing here, but how aren't 2-consecutive term limit and 8/12 years the same thing?
In Florida, there is a representative who was first elected in 2012, but whose re-election in 2014, was so messed up that, that the House declared his seat vacant.  He is now running in the special election, and will likely be (re)-elected. 

Florida term limits say that no one may be on the ballot, if at the end of their current term they will have served 8 consecutive years.  The constitution even forecloses on a possible resignation loophole.

Ordinarily, he would have been term-limited in 2020.  But because he will not serve a full two years this term, he won't be term limited until 2024, after serving a few months short of 12 years, and almost 6 full terms.
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