NY-19: Gibson retiring

[RogueBeaver]

Will apparently be announced tomorrow.

[Talleyrand]

Knowing N.Y. Democrats, they'll nominate an amateur film-maker or a rich facebook executive's boyfriend who just moved from California, and manage to blow this.

[LeBron]

Yay! D+1. The 2016 Democratic wave in taking back Congress is building!

Obama carried this district with >50% of the vote both times, so NY Dems really do need to nominate someone good. This, aside from PA-8 and ME-2, should be one of the prime House targets.

[JerryArkansas]

First off, it's New York 19th, and second, this is ing great.  One more hard open seat we have to hold.

[Vega]

Yay! D+1. The 2016 Democratic wave in taking back Congress is building!

Obama carried this district with >50% of the vote both times, so NY Dems really do need to nominate someone good. This, aside from PA-8 and ME-2, should be one of the prime House targets.

I'd tack on NV-04 to that list before I would PA-8.

[DrScholl]

Bye, Felicia.

[IceSpear]

Hmm, I wonder why.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Either he's running for senate in 2016 or is sick of politics. Take your pick.

For what it's worth, the district is only D+1 in PVI and Bush 43 won it both times, so republicans may be able to hold it. That being said, it is a place where Obama actually did better in 2012 then he did in 2008.

[Vosem]

Gibson won this with 65% of the vote in 2014 (and would have been Likely R at worst had he sought reelection), and it's intensely Republican downballot. Calling it D+1 is just ridiculous; an open seat here starts at Leans R, but that can go in either direction, since Upstate New York is pretty elastic.

EDIT: Though I will say one more thing: this is actually a part of the country where Hillary will run significantly stronger than Obama, and possibly enough to make a difference. A "Hillary effect" will be a significant help to the Democratic nominee here.

[Panda Express]

What a baby. Scared of some little Hillary coattails?

[henster]

Gibson and any other Republican would be crushed by Schumer.

[Vosem]

What a baby. Scared of some little Hillary coattails?

Leans R

[smoltchanov]

Tilt R, i would say. Republicans are strong downballot, but Democrats, led (probably) by Hillary and Schumer, may benefit from strong coattails. And if Republicans nominate far-rightist (Republican party in the state gradually becomes more and more conservative (where are new Jacob Javitses??)) - it will become REALLY interesting...

[Vosem]

Tilt R, i would say. Republicans are strong downballot, but Democrats, led (probably) by Hillary and Schumer, may benefit from strong coattails. And if Republicans nominate far-rightist (Republican party in the state gradually becomes more and more conservative (where are new Jacob Javitses??)) - it will become REALLY interesting...

The Jacob Javitses, unfortunately, never penetrated this far north. This district overlaps with one represented in the 1930s and 1940s by Hamilton Fish III, who was renowned as one of the furthest-right members of the House (Roosevelt's supporters would deride their opponents by tying them to "Martin, Barton, and Fish") and was speculated to have links with Nazi groups. (Fun fact: Hamilton Fish III's grandson, Hamilton Fish V, was a protege of Ramsey Clark and ran for Congress in 1988; Fish III, who was still alive derided Fish V as a "communist" and encouraged voters to vote against him in the Democratic primary; Fish V ultimately lost to now-Rep. Nita Lowey).

[Simfan34]

Shame, he's one of my favourite congressmen. I'm not sure what would be open to him statewide, though? Not a senate seat, certainly, and I always assumed Cuomo would run for a third term, and a fourth, and so on. There's very little room for the GOP to take any sort of statewide office here, which is tragic because many of the party's best standard-bearers have come from here.

Gibson could carry this seat for as long as he wants, though. The idea that he's running away from "Hilary's coattails" is patently absurd- although not so much if an open seat is involved. I hope we can keep the seat, if only find someone just as reasonable to replace him. Demographically speaking this should be a very Republican seat (the Hudson Valley is in many regards Hamptons North lite- just look at Torie); this is Gillibrand's old area and before that the seat was Republican for generations, as Vosem pointed out.

[JerryArkansas]

I know who needs to run for the seat.  Torie is not doing to much right now, he would be an excellent choice. 

[smoltchanov]

Tilt R, i would say. Republicans are strong downballot, but Democrats, led (probably) by Hillary and Schumer, may benefit from strong coattails. And if Republicans nominate far-rightist (Republican party in the state gradually becomes more and more conservative (where are new Jacob Javitses??)) - it will become REALLY interesting...

The Jacob Javitses, unfortunately, never penetrated this far north. This district overlaps with one represented in the 1930s and 1940s by Hamilton Fish III, who was renowned as one of the furthest-right members of the House (Roosevelt's supporters would deride their opponents by tying them to "Martin, Barton, and Fish") and was speculated to have links with Nazi groups. (Fun fact: Hamilton Fish III's grandson, Hamilton Fish V, was a protege of Ramsey Clark and ran for Congress in 1988; Fish III, who was still alive derided Fish V as a "communist" and encouraged voters to vote against him in the Democratic primary; Fish V ultimately lost to now-Rep. Nita Lowey).

Thanks for info! I knew something about Fish family, but added info is always interesting. Nevertheless - there were a lot of moderate Republican representaives even from Upstate in the past (even if not so liberal as Javits was). And this is, surely, very moderate district, so Republicans would better have moderate (may be - even pro-choice) candidate. And i don't know who that could be...

[Brittain33]

Run, Torie, run!

[nclib]

Wasn't Gibson rated the House's least conservative Republican? If the GOP nominates a far-right winger, should flip.

[Miles]

^ I think that was Hanna.

[Simfan34]

Run, Torie, run!

Too bad Torie isn't already mayor of Hudson...

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Run, Torie, run!

[RogueBeaver]

Run, Torie, run!

[Maxwell]

This certainly becomes tough for Republicans. This is an immediate toss-up, i'd say Tilt D, considering Chris Gibson was a perfect fit for the district and his opponent last time was a facebook husband who flopped harder than most Democrats that year (though in New York, he was only the 2nd worst candidate of the bunch).

[Torie]

Thank you all so much. I am flattered, very flattered, to get such bipartisan support!

I very much want to be mayor of Hudson really. That is where I can do the most good. That is all that interests this old man at this point - being of service, and in particular to a city with which I have fallen hopelessly in love. (It's a very, very unique place, and what makes it really special, is that all classes and races live side by side, and get along remarkably well.) The city needs both my legal and financial skills, and work habits, and contacts with talented people to offer their services pro bono to our tiny, and largely staff-less city. And there is a peculiar opening, given who is interested in running, and who isn't.

The idea is to get the Dems to allow me to run in their primary, while I also run in the Pub primary against the Pub incumbent mayor, as part of a non partisan, what we need now are worker bee technocrats, theme, with transparency, longer term financial projections, more sophisticated cost accounting, more discipline in getting all the paper work out, be it grant paperwork, etc., with more skill and more smarts, and more inclusion. The city is adrift, accomplishing from a governmental perspective, just about nothing at the moment. In the meantime, I am busy with some help from Jimtex, in overturning the weighted voting system in Hudson, along with a host of population and mapping errors of the Wards. I have reached out to Muon2 for advice about how to be a good mayor, and will reach out some more, although granted running a city with 25,000 and some staff is different than one with 6,000 folks and next to no staff.

Now as to the open CD seat,  if I were ten year's younger, well maybe. I want my party to return to the party of Lincoln. Somehow it lost its way. It's time, way past time, that it return to its roots. It saddens me - saddens me a lot, what has happened. But such heavy lifting will have to be left to someone else. Beyond being unrealistic, as you all know, my psychic energy is focused on Hudson, to help it reach its incredible potential, despite all the obstacles, fiscal and otherwise.

Anyway, I think what Gibson is really interested in is running for Governor in 2018. There he has a chance. He's too smart to think he can knock off an incumbent and competent Dem Senator.

And, in honor of Hudson,  I have changed my signature to a shot of Warren Street that I took while driving yesterday (consider it an "art study"). Today, it's butt chilling cold. Partner Danny decamped to Long Beach for a week to curate a museum showing, including some portrait art he did upstairs in the sunroom. We got up at 3 am so that he could make his 6 am flight in Albany, but then snow hit DC, and well, he flew out at noon, but not to Philly (the replacement for DC) en route to Phoenix and then Long Beach, but instead to Atlanta. Currently he's sitting in Atlanta hoping for a flight to LAX. Maybe he will be there by tomorrow AM after 24 hours of hell. That is the problem on the east coast. The air lanes are so tight, that bad weather in one spot, causes the whole system to go haywire.