OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running

[IceSpear]

I love the thought of a Senator Sittenfeld! He would be a thousand times better at representing us than Portman is.

Even though he is from the Southern part of the state, he is definitely popular among the liberal base in Ohio. I've heard a few of his radio broadcasts before, Talk of Ohio, and he's passionately expressed his discontent with the current gubernatorial administration in Ohio. He's won the support of police and firefighters for making known how those cuts to local governments hurt public services and schools (and in-turn results in higher local tax levies) and for the Governor's favoring of the rich and attacks on voters and reproductive rights.

He's brought on guests to talk about issues like those and he's not afraid to state where he stands. He's voiced his support for the Affordable Care Act, voiced his opposition to income inequality - nearly a quarter of all income goes to the top 1% - so he is an economic progressive, wants a raise in the living wage, has fought for college students in combating student loan debts in the City Council and a lot more. He supports protecting union rights - right to collectively bargain contracts, safer work environments and fair wages, and no "right-to-work." He's participated in rallies, public speeches and broadcasts before supporting LGBT equality and equal opportunities for women, closing the gender gap. Just from all this you can tell he is a strong Democrat.

He does have bipartisan accomplishments to tout as well. On the Council he sponsored a proposal (that was passed) that offered more to residents by turning public schools at night into community centers for recreation and learning, he's gone green for the city of Cincinnati, and he's cracking down on banks over foreclosures.

He's very in-touch with the social media world, is completely transparent, is very good at fundraising having raised nearly $300K in 2013, and his top of the race performance in 2013 is a perfect example that the people like him. His public speaking ability is awesome, and his ads he's aired in his past races are even better.

He would likely gain the support of the party if he does run. He's been very good friends with Pepper for years, the ODP Chair who Sittenfeld helped stump for, for attorney general last year. Sittenfeld sits on the state executive committee to, which unanimously elected David Pepper the chair last month. Aside from all the traveling he's done across the state, that's one of the main ways he's built these really great relationships with party leaders is through Pepper.

Sittenfeld would be a really strong candidate for statewide office in 2018. It might be too early for a run right now, but he has the ability to run a phenomenal campaign nonetheless whatever it is he runs for. I'll definitely support him and campaign for him if he runs, but I'm on the edge about his chances in a statewide race against someone with all the money in the world.

Adam LeBron Sittenfeld?

[IceSpear]

The Hill: Strickland's ideal for Dems, but most buzz around Sittenfeld. Wonder who pulls the trigger.

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Uh...no.

[IceSpear]

He jumped in this morning. Congrats, Adam. Maybe he's thinking of Mikulski as a precedent...

Hopefully he bows out if Strickland decides to run...

[IceSpear]

Why would anyone want an 80 year old Strickland running anyway?  The Democrats are better off with a fresh face IMO.

Because it's not the best strategy to run a city council member against an incumbent that is a fundraising powerhouse. Sittenfeld seems like he'd be a good candidate in the future, but I'm more interested in winning the seat than furthering his political career.

And Stickland would be 75, not 80.

[IceSpear]

In completely unrelated news, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan has announced that he's now Pro-Choice.

http://politicalwire.com/2015/01/28/lawmaker-changes-mind-abortion/

About as much of a surprise as when Obama came out in favor of gay marriage. Anyone paying attention already knew he held that view. He really changed his mind about 5 years ago.

This could mean he's running for Senate, which would be nice in that he'd probably be replaced and his district can do much better. I suppose he could possibly beat Portman and then I'd eat my words. But I still think Portman can take him.

What do you mean by that? The district is D+12.

[IceSpear]

Big, if true:

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Stupendous news! The 2016 Democratic wave is building!

[IceSpear]

Let's be real - Strickland probably loses. Dude would be an ancient freshman - Portman can make the case that he would be a more effective Senator for Ohio and probably be correct.

Voters caring about seniority is a thing of the past.

[IceSpear]

I kind of doubt that Sittenfeld would only get 8-12% against Stickland. I mean, even some dude protest votes usually garner 15-20% of the vote. But yeah, Stickland probably wins at least 2:1 with little effort. It would be a suicide run and he should drop out and run for something else in the future if Stickland jumps in.

[IceSpear]

^I noticed that as well. I was shocked when I saw he was in his late 60s (in 2010).

[IceSpear]

Strickland could announce as early as this week. How quickly will Sittenfeld bail?

Great news! I don't really get why Sittenfeld didn't just wait and see if Strickland was going to run before declaring anyway.

[IceSpear]

Losing a primary 3-1 is a good career move? I fail to see that logic.

That's because Sittenfeld WILL WIN!

Strickland is a Bob Casey Democrat, pro second amendment, but a progressive on everything else and win one more election.

Casey's claim to fame is being pro-life, not pro-gun (though he is both).

[IceSpear]

Adam, it seems like you have the worst luck in politics. Enthusiastically backing the biggest implosion of the 2014 election cycle, and now enthusiastically backing a guy who probably would've been the nominee if Strickland never ran (and just a couple months ago very few people actually expected him to run). What's next, will John Kasich be the next president of the United States?

[IceSpear]

If Sittenfeld's goal is just to run a positive campaign and get name recognition for a future run, then fair enough. If he actually thinks he can win? Well...bless his heart.

[IceSpear]

How does getting crushed 3-1 in a primary help his career again?

Name recognition!1!!

But it doesn't help that this is likely to be a very low turnout primary. Didn't Strickland also represent an Appalachian district? I don't really see then how Sittenfeld gets protest votes from them (because of soshulist obummer) if Strickland represented them.

Ohio Democratic primaries always have low turnout, but yeah he did used to represent a district that extended from Youngstown on down to the Kentucky border. Strickland will carry Appalachia in the primary in a blowout no matter what.

It wouldn't be worthwhile for Sittenfeld to campaign in Appalachia in the primary anyways. Just to provide some reasons behind this, 1) Democrats there aren't the Democrats who Sittenfeld wants to identify with, 2) He's naturally a bad fit for SE Ohio, 3) He's running against Ted Strickland and 4) The region doesn't supply all that many votes due to weak registration/turnout numbers (for example, in Strickland's 2006 Democratic primary he got roughly only 16-18% of his total overall votes from Southeast Ohio). It might be best for him to avoid Central Ohio as well (that's very solid, unbreakable Strickland territory).

Sittenfeld's best strategy as long as he stays in is to continue campaigning on college campuses with the youth voting block, and to focus on the two regions where he has the strongest potential of doing well (Southwest and Northeast Ohio). Most of his donors and support are coming from SW Ohio (to be expected) and Strickland under-performs all the time up here in NE Ohio with Democratic base votes, so if I were Sittenfeld I would take full advantage of that.

That aside, he has a floor of about 30% and a ceiling of 40% when all's said and done.

He has a floor of 12% and a ceiling of 28%.

I'd say he has a floor of 20% and a ceiling of 35% (moderate hero)

[IceSpear]

Portman has a Some Dude running to his right:

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Eckhart v. Sittenfeld discuss with maps.