OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, this isn't going anywhere.  Don't read to much into it either.  He'll drop out (or be forced out) if Strickland or Ryan run (or stomped in the primary after not even being acknowledged by Strickland/Ryan's campaign, but I doubt he'll want to burn all his bridges just to get like 8% or less in a primary).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No I can't see Ohio going for a freaking council member against Portman. Hell, they could probably find a better candidate in the legislature, why hasn't Cordray's name been mentioned?

He wants to be Governor

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NJ quotes some senior Dem strategists calling Sittenfeld their most promising prodigy since Brown.

I thought their "most promising prodigy" was FitzGerald... and we see how that turned out.

According to Lebron and literally no one else.  I doubt even FitzGerald would vote for FitzGerald.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NJ quotes some senior Dem strategists calling Sittenfeld their most promising prodigy since Brown.

I thought their "most promising prodigy" was FitzGerald... and we see how that turned out.

According to Lebron and literally no one else.  I doubt even FitzGerald would vote for FitzGerald.

He was a good rising star, at the time. Even you have to admit, we can't be like the Wisconsin Democratic Party and expect the same two people (Strickland and Ryan) to run for everything. Redfern made a huge mistake by not looking into FitzGerald more, but one bad apple shouldn't mean Sittenfeld doesn't deserve a chance at running here. We need to start looking towards our party's future.

Connie Pillich, P.G. Sittenfield, Tim Ryan, Zach Klein, Lou Gentile, Mike Stinziano, and John Patrick Carney are all rising stars.  Leland, Budish, Brown, Strickland, and Cordrey are all well-established candidates with statewide potential (well, Brown is already Senator, but you get the idea).  Cranley, Whaley, and Ginther (down the road) each also have statewide potential.  FitzGerald was never considered an up-and-comer, nor did anyone ever really like him.  He just got to be the sacrificial lamb once it became clear Kasich was gonna win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NJ quotes some senior Dem strategists calling Sittenfeld their most promising prodigy since Brown.

I thought their "most promising prodigy" was FitzGerald... and we see how that turned out.

According to Lebron and literally no one else.  I doubt even FitzGerald would vote for FitzGerald.

He was a good rising star, at the time. Even you have to admit, we can't be like the Wisconsin Democratic Party and expect the same two people (Strickland and Ryan) to run for everything. Redfern made a huge mistake by not looking into FitzGerald more, but one bad apple shouldn't mean Sittenfeld doesn't deserve a chance at running here. We need to start looking towards our party's future.

Connie Pillich, P.G. Sittenfield, Tim Ryan, Zach Klein, Lou Gentile, Mike Stinziano, and John Patrick Carney are all rising stars.  Leland, Budish, Brown, Strickland, and Cordrey are all well-established candidates with statewide potential (well, Brown is already Senator, but you get the idea).  Cranley, Whaley, and Ginther (down the road) each also have statewide potential.  FitzGerald was never considered an up-and-comer, nor did anyone ever really like him.  He just got to be the sacrificial lamb once it became clear Kasich was gonna win.

All of them are rising stars, yes. You can even throw DeGeeter, Kamrass, Clyde, Turner, Schiavoni, Boccieri, Phillips, or Ramos in the rising star category.

Ed FitzGerald we'll have to agree to disagree on. He made a big name for himself as Mayor of Lakewood, he survived a crowded Democratic primary for CC Exec. and he did what he said he would do - clean up corruption in the former county government, balancing the county deficit, getting some new and needed county charter amendments passed and approved, establish new initiatives like his college-savings program, and he gained statewide acclamation by the party after he stood up to Husted in 2012 on voting rights. He wasn't well-liked by the County Council President, and he certainly made some enemies along the way, but he also had a lot of close friends and party leaders urging him to run for governor after others opted out.

But like I said, Ed's the past. He's in the private sector and is done with politics. He appeared publicly for possibly the last time after showing up to show his support on Sunday for the new incumbent Cuyahoga County Executive, Armond Budish. Ed's done with, and eventually Strickland will be to.

We got to make room for the Sittenfeld's and Gentile's and DeGeeter's to take shape. Give Sittenfeld a chance to prove his ability to run a statewide campaign, Gentile would be worthwhile to run against Johnson in the coming years, and DeGeeter can probably replace Skindell when he retires. And so on.

Sittenfield should be saved for a race he can actually win.  Maybe get him elected Hamilton County Commissioner or have him replace Cranley as Mayor eventually and we'll see.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Early Pub oppo on PGS: he's praised OWS.

More power to him!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The OH democratic party is a joke party.

Not really.  It's going through a rough patch right now, but a joke party it is not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The OH democratic party is a joke party.

Not really.  It's going through a rough patch right now, but a joke party it is not.

Maybe "joke party" is kind of exaggerating the situation, but their bench is fairly thin (though I think Sittenfield is very promising for a future race) for a major party in a swing state.

I mean 2014 was the biggest Republican wave in modern US history and Ohio was one of the ground zeros for it.  That sort of thing tends to hurt a bench, as does the fact that the Republican congressional and state legislature maps are some of the most effective gerrymanders of the decade.  While we have a thinner bench than one might expect, we have both some extremely promising rising stars (Stinziano, Ginther, Bishoff, Klein, Sittenfield, Pillich, arguably Whaley and Kamrass, etc) and some strong, established, big-names (Leland, Cordrey, Carney, Strickland, Ryan, Cranley,  Gentile, Schiavoni, Budish, etc).  Those are just off the top of my head.  We've taken a beating due to 2010 and 2014, but the ODP is a far cry from the Florida Democratic Party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland still considering. Ryan says he's completely preoccupied with his infant son ATM, but will make a decision within a month. Says while unafraid of a primary, having done that before, it would be preferable if one's avoided. Sounds like he's still out. Buckeyes, what do you think the odds are of Strickland running?

I'd say there's about a 33% chance of Strickland running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While I like Sittenfield a lot and think he could have a bright future, I worry that he's setting himself up for something similar to what happened to another once promising up-and-comer from Hamilton County.  In 2010 Pepper was simply running for Auditor in the wrong year (much like Carney and Pillich in 2014).  A defeat can take some of the shine off a rising star and it is important to make sure we run them in races/years that they can win.  Someone like Mandel or Mary Taylor would be one thing, but Portman is more like DeWine in that he won't lose unless you get both the right A-list candidate and a decent year.  Portman won't shoot himself in the foot and will be flooded with more money than he knows what to do with. 

@ Lebron:  I think 20% is too low for Strickland.  By all accounts, the man has more energy and fire-in-the-belly than he did when he was elected Governor in 2006.  Plus, who cares if he'll only serve like two terms if it's the only way to sink Portman (I don't think Ryan or Cordrey will run, Strickland probably won't, but I'd only be mildly surprised if he does).  Sutton would lose to Renacci, she has literally zero cross-over appeal outside of the Barberton/Norton area, she should run for whatever State Senate seat includes that area (I think it's Roegner, who Sutton could certainly beat in that area).

Sittenfield is from Cincinnatti, so it's no surprise the progressive establishment there is supporting him or that he is on good terms with Pepper.  However, he won't help turn out the base b/c he has zero name-recognition outside of Hamilton County and probably won't be able raise enough money to change that in a meaningful way.  Btw, not only is Portman not scared of Sittenfield, I doubt he even thinks about him.  What does he gain by acknowledging Sittenfield and thus giving his candidacy more legitimacy?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland's odds of beating Portman are about 50%.  Ryan will presumably run for Governor in 2018 (and would probably be the slight favorite in the general, especially given that Husted and DeWine are expected to spend the primary season beating the crap out of each other).  The Presidential election will bring out urban voters and Strickland is still basically a folk hero in Appalachia.  For whatever reason, his appeal there was never really hurt by Obama.  The dude's had quite a bit of fire in his belly since he left office and he'd start with both a strong pre-existing fundraising network and higher name recognition than Portman.  

@ Adam: Dude, Strickland *is* a progressive.  He's also extremely electable and Sittenfield simply isn't nearly a strong enough candidate yet to knock off Portman.  It doesn't really matter that Strickland will be a fairly old freshman, Ryan and him are our only potential candidates who could knock off Portman.  Portman needs to be beaten before he runs for President and/or gets entrenched (he could very easily become Grassley-level entrenched if left alone for a cycle or two).  Furthermore, Sittenfield is not "our candidate," at least not yet.  He isn't entitled to the nomination, he hasn't won the primary.  As I said before though, I would love for Sittenfield to run against John Cranley for Cincinnati Mayor, I think he could win.  Not only would this be a considerable improvement ideologically speaking, it'd also position Sittenfield for a statewide run of some sort down the road.  Losing in a landslide to Portman won't do Sittenfield any favors, especially when he's hardly our strongest candidate.

Edit: @Adam: Good article, I definitely agree about the categories of Ohio Democratic voters and activists.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

X, my OH-GOP sources are saying that there will be a "move up". (See below)

Gov/Lt Gov: Taylor/Husted
SoS: Mandel
Treas: DeWine
AG: Yost
Auditor: Open

I've heard:

Gov: Husted vs. DeWine
SoS:
Treasurer:
AG: Yost vs. Faber
Auditor: Duffy

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Isn't DeWine a little bit long in the tooth to be taking up new office that isn't the Governorship?

Yeah, plus Husted and him really don't like each other.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

X is right about who the GOP will get in 2018 for Gov and AG. There may be some differing on SoS and Auditor though.

Gov - It's going to be Husted vs. DeWine. At DeWine's age, it's make it or break it time for him and Husted has always been a very ambitious Republican. They'll tear each other apart.

SoS - Larry Obhof I've heard might be interested. He's going to run for something, and I remember last year he vigorously defended and cosponsored the voter suppression legislation that passed. This would be his office to run for.

Attorney General - Dave Yost. He could get a primary challenge from Faber possibly for his past defiance of the Ohio GOP, though it should be safe to say he'll get the GOP nod.

Treasurer - Scott Ryan has gotten a few mentions.

Auditor - Clarence Mingo maybe? McClain is also a possibility.

As for who will challenge Sherrod, there's a good chance Stivers will run here. He's fundraising for a future run at some point, and he's an establishment favorite.

For Auditor, Duffy may face a primary, but he defitinitely has right of first refusal among the Franklin County establishment.  Mingo may well run if he doesn't.

For Senate, I've heard Stivers vs. Taylor

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If, by whatever chance, Strickland runs and wins, I see him as being a one termer. Then it'll probably be the sixth year of a Hillary administration. The seat will just flip back.

Yeah, that it why I'd prefer someone younger who could conceivably hold the seat for awhile.

Except that's not one of the options.  It's basically a choice between a progressive who probably has about three or so terms in him and about a 50% chance of beating Portman (Strickland) and throwing away any chance of winning the seat by running a younger candidate who would lose to Portman by about the same margin as Lee Fisher did and damaging his own career in the process (Sittenfield).  Sittenfield may well be a rising star, but right now and in this race, he's a solid C-lister.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If, by whatever chance, Strickland runs and wins, I see him as being a one termer. Then it'll probably be the sixth year of a Hillary administration. The seat will just flip back.

Yeah, that it why I'd prefer someone younger who could conceivably hold the seat for awhile.

Except that's not one of the options.  It's basically a choice between a progressive who probably has about three or so terms in him and about a 50% chance of beating Portman (Strickland) and throwing away any chance of winning the seat by running a younger candidate who would lose to Portman by about the same margin as Lee Fisher did and damaging his own career in the process (Sittenfield).  Sittenfield may well be a rising star, but right now and in this race, he's a solid C-lister.

Strickland doesn't have 3 terms in him. The guy would be 75 upon inauguration, he’s not staying in the senate until 93. Two terms maximum.

It's hardly unheard of for a Senator to stay in office despite being in their 90s.  You really have no basis for your assertion about how many terms he has in him.  Beyond which, Strickland would spend far more time fighting for Ohio in a single term than Portman would if he spent the rest of his life in the Senate.  In fairness, a half-eaten donut would be an improvement over Portman, but that's beside the point.  The bottom line is that if Portman wins, 95-99% of Ohioans lose (even if not all of them realize it).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If, by whatever chance, Strickland runs and wins, I see him as being a one termer. Then it'll probably be the sixth year of a Hillary administration. The seat will just flip back.

Yeah, that it why I'd prefer someone younger who could conceivably hold the seat for awhile.

Except that's not one of the options.  It's basically a choice between a progressive who probably has about three or so terms in him and about a 50% chance of beating Portman (Strickland) and throwing away any chance of winning the seat by running a younger candidate who would lose to Portman by about the same margin as Lee Fisher did and damaging his own career in the process (Sittenfield).  Sittenfield may well be a rising star, but right now and in this race, he's a solid C-lister.

The only way Sittenfeld loses by a Fisher margin is if he implodes or he gets hit by an obstacle of a Democratic primary (and wins) on the way to the general. Pepper will ensure another FitzGerald never happens and will look into P.G.'s background some more, and Fisher lost after a brutal primary that cost him a lot of his cash (and eventually left him broke in the general), being a naturally very poor, very mediocre candidate and the GOP wave that year.  

If Sittenfeld turns out to be the ODP de-facto nominee though in an uncontested primary, he stays on balance (or better) with CoH, and as long as 2016 isn't 2010, then it's close to impossible he does as bad or worse than Lee Fisher did against Portman. Let's be real here.

tl;dr please

Then don't post?

First, Sittenfield wouldn't make Strickland waste money.  Strickland could just ignore him and Sittenfield would still only get like 8-12%.

Second, we both know full well that Strickland would oppose the sort of abortion restrictions the Republicans have been pushing in Ohio and other states.  To try to make Strickland out to be some sort of enemy of the LGBT community just because he is friends with Jennifer Garrison (an admittedly awful Democrat from the same area who was part of the State House Democratic leadership for a while) is disingenuous at best.  Garrison isn't running for Senate, Strickland is and he's certainly not some sort of arch-enemy of the gay rights movement.  Sometimes in politics, you have to work with people whose views may not align 100% with your own if you want to get anything done.

On a related note, your claim about his budgets is also a bit misleading.  Strickland had to deal with an extremely right-wing and obstructionist Republican State Senate during his term.  Just not passing a budget wasn't really a viable option and sh!tty as certain aspects of the budgets were, it's not like some progressive wish list was going to even make it to his desk.  Those budgets were also a far cry from what we've seen from the Kasich administration (which has repeatedly pushed God-awful budgets, the latest of which includes a 23% cut in the state income tax).  As for gun control, you won't find a stronger supporter of it than me, but Ohio is just not the right state to insist on only running Democrats who support it in statewide races.  That's a losing issue for us here and I bare Strickland no ill-will for his views on the issue.  They definitely make him a much stronger candidate (as does the fact that he had a pro-life voting record in the House).  

Btw, Ohio is a pretty left-leaning state on most economic issues, but it is also center-right on social issues and narrowly favors Republicans, all things being equal.  Sherrod Brown wins despite his (excellent) views on many social issues because his brand is first and foremost one of economic populism.  A generic liberal vs. generic conservative in Ohio is typically a victory for the latter.  A populist Democrat (bonus points if s/he is perceived as moderate on gun control or abortion) vs. a generic conservative is generally victory for the former.

At the end of the day, Sittenfield wouldn't be able to raise even half of what Portman will and would be lucky to crack 42% (and could easily do worse than that).  Losing by a Lee Fisher-sized margin is well within the realm of possibility.  Running Sittenfield instead of Strickland wouldn't quite be at the "run Alan Grayson/Debbie Wasserman Schultz instead of Patrick Murphy" level of political insanity/suicide, but it is definitely up there.  It would be like if decided to throw away our chance to unseat DeWine in 2006 by running Paul Hackett instead of Sherrod Brown.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland: "I will make a decision by the end of this month."

This contradicts what inside sources were saying last week that Strickland would declare his intention to run in mid-February. It looks like he's still pondering on a decision though.

Strickland isn't even in the race yet and Ohio Republicans are already unleashing hell on him and his record. He is their worst nightmare, after all. At Strickland's age though, and I hope he considers this, this would be a stressful, two year long campaign for him and it would just get expensive and nasty. He could handle it, but the question is does he want to handle it.

P.G. is more motivated and he knows what he's up against. He needs to get cash and quick and start running his campaign before his challenger's define him. He's been expanding his campaign team which includes many prominent national figures who worked for and are close to the Clinton and Obama families. He was just up in DC fundraising with them, and you know, like I said he wasn't going to run if he knew he wouldn't have support. Who knows how many more powerful connections he has.

And speaking of that, the team already feels pretty confident about their first quarter haul so far. Judging from some of the comments of the memo P.G. sent out ("hampered by the politics of the past") he doesn't seem prepared to drop out even if Strickland runs.

I've really got to admire P.G.'s fortitude. This is a tough, tough battle for him to win, but you know, some candidates from 2014 proved us completely wrong and were underestimated. Let's see what he can do.

What do you expect Sittenfield's campaign to say?  I'm sure Jim Webb's Presidential campaign staff say that they're confident about his chances and that they've been blown away by the level of support he's recieving.  No one publicly says "yeah guys, this is basically a suicide run and it'll be a cold day in hell before I/my candidate has a chance of winning."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland: "I will make a decision by the end of this month."

This contradicts what inside sources were saying last week that Strickland would declare his intention to run in mid-February. It looks like he's still pondering on a decision though.

Strickland isn't even in the race yet and Ohio Republicans are already unleashing hell on him and his record. He is their worst nightmare, after all. At Strickland's age though, and I hope he considers this, this would be a stressful, two year long campaign for him and it would just get expensive and nasty. He could handle it, but the question is does he want to handle it.

P.G. is more motivated and he knows what he's up against. He needs to get cash and quick and start running his campaign before his challenger's define him. He's been expanding his campaign team which includes many prominent national figures who worked for and are close to the Clinton and Obama families. He was just up in DC fundraising with them, and you know, like I said he wasn't going to run if he knew he wouldn't have support. Who knows how many more powerful connections he has.

And speaking of that, the team already feels pretty confident about their first quarter haul so far. Judging from some of the comments of the memo P.G. sent out ("hampered by the politics of the past") he doesn't seem prepared to drop out even if Strickland runs.

I've really got to admire P.G.'s fortitude. This is a tough, tough battle for him to win, but you know, some candidates from 2014 proved us completely wrong and were underestimated. Let's see what he can do.

What do you expect Sittenfield's campaign to say?  I'm sure Jim Webb's Presidential campaign staff say that they're confident about his chances and that they've been blown away by the level of support he's recieving.  No one publicly says "yeah guys, this is basically a suicide run and it'll be a cold day in hell before I/my candidate has a chance of winning."

It's expected that they would be openly optimistic to the public. Yeah. Looking forward to April's fundraising report though, we'll see whether they really do have something to be happy about and whether they really do have a nice sized beginning haul.

FitzGerald got his early fundraising start simply by a huge boost by the party and old campaign funds he had, which is a contrast to P.G. who's building a much-needed national profile of donors. I'm personally eager to see what his CoH is.

The main reason I posted that article though was simply to note Sittenfeld's small jab at Strickland and his willingness to stay in this race which could be a sign of things to come.

If Sittenfield wants to wreck any political future he may have otherwise had so he can get 8-12% against the Democratic nominee (who won't even have to acknowledge Sittenfield's candidacy), I suppose that's his call.  Seems kind of silly though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland: "I will make a decision by the end of this month."

This contradicts what inside sources were saying last week that Strickland would declare his intention to run in mid-February. It looks like he's still pondering on a decision though.

Strickland isn't even in the race yet and Ohio Republicans are already unleashing hell on him and his record. He is their worst nightmare, after all. At Strickland's age though, and I hope he considers this, this would be a stressful, two year long campaign for him and it would just get expensive and nasty. He could handle it, but the question is does he want to handle it.

P.G. is more motivated and he knows what he's up against. He needs to get cash and quick and start running his campaign before his challenger's define him. He's been expanding his campaign team which includes many prominent national figures who worked for and are close to the Clinton and Obama families. He was just up in DC fundraising with them, and you know, like I said he wasn't going to run if he knew he wouldn't have support. Who knows how many more powerful connections he has.

And speaking of that, the team already feels pretty confident about their first quarter haul so far. Judging from some of the comments of the memo P.G. sent out ("hampered by the politics of the past") he doesn't seem prepared to drop out even if Strickland runs.

I've really got to admire P.G.'s fortitude. This is a tough, tough battle for him to win, but you know, some candidates from 2014 proved us completely wrong and were underestimated. Let's see what he can do.

What do you expect Sittenfield's campaign to say?  I'm sure Jim Webb's Presidential campaign staff say that they're confident about his chances and that they've been blown away by the level of support he's recieving.  No one publicly says "yeah guys, this is basically a suicide run and it'll be a cold day in hell before I/my candidate has a chance of winning."

It's expected that they would be openly optimistic to the public. Yeah. Looking forward to April's fundraising report though, we'll see whether they really do have something to be happy about and whether they really do have a nice sized beginning haul.

FitzGerald got his early fundraising start simply by a huge boost by the party and old campaign funds he had, which is a contrast to P.G. who's building a much-needed national profile of donors. I'm personally eager to see what his CoH is.

The main reason I posted that article though was simply to note Sittenfeld's small jab at Strickland and his willingness to stay in this race which could be a sign of things to come.

If Sittenfield wants to wreck any political future he may have otherwise had so he can get 8-12% against the Democratic nominee (who won't even have to acknowledge Sittenfield's candidacy), I suppose that's his call.  Seems kind of silly though.

I think we're all in agreement that Sittenfeld stands no chance in a primary if Strickland runs. Regardless, I would still back Sittenfeld's candidacy in a hypothetical primary for previously mentioned personal and ideological reasons.

Sittenfeld would perform better than 8-12%, likely with a floor of 20%. Even Larry Ealy, the cringe perennial candidate from last year's Democratic primary got 17% of the vote despite publicly acknowledging he had no idea where Youngstown, Ohio was and not one person having any idea who he was.

Granted, he was facing FitzGerald who also had low name ID and is a weaker candidate than Strickland would be. On the flip side of that though, while Strickland is a lot stronger than FitzGerald, Sittenfeld is a lot stronger (and a lot more credible and sane) then Ealy was.

P.G. would remain relevant with the cash and connections and he would run up the score a little in the metropolitan areas, but it's ultimately Strickland's field.

In a lot of past cases though, the ODP has jumped in and "encouraged" the weaker candidate or the candidate they prefer not to back to drop out. So if Strickland opts out, he does still have a realistic shot at the nomination. On the other hand, if Strickland jumps in, while Sittenfeld himself and his early team would like for him to stay in, his establishment friends might just ask him to drop out and promise party support of him in a local run for say, Hamilton County Commissioner or State Senate in 2016/2018.

Fair enough.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sittenfield and I'd love to see him run for the state legislature.  If he does so and wins, he could be a great candidate against Chabot if that seat becomes competitive (or is drawn fairly) after redistricting.  Any remotely fair/non-gerrymandered map would have likely-to-lean Democratic house seat in Hamilton County.  Even a competitive-to-lean Republican seat is pretty sketchy.  Someone as right-wing as Chabot would be toast in anything short of a lean Republican seat like the old OH-1.  That said, there might be a bit of a line since we have a pretty strong bench in the Cincinnatti area (Pillich, Sittenfield, Cranley, Pepper, Roxanne Qualls, Micah Kamrass, etc).  But I digress,  the point is that Sittenfield will have plenty of opportunities to climb the ladder without embarking on a suicide run.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland: "I will make a decision by the end of this month."

This contradicts what inside sources were saying last week that Strickland would declare his intention to run in mid-February. It looks like he's still pondering on a decision though.

Strickland isn't even in the race yet and Ohio Republicans are already unleashing hell on him and his record. He is their worst nightmare, after all. At Strickland's age though, and I hope he considers this, this would be a stressful, two year long campaign for him and it would just get expensive and nasty. He could handle it, but the question is does he want to handle it.

P.G. is more motivated and he knows what he's up against. He needs to get cash and quick and start running his campaign before his challenger's define him. He's been expanding his campaign team which includes many prominent national figures who worked for and are close to the Clinton and Obama families. He was just up in DC fundraising with them, and you know, like I said he wasn't going to run if he knew he wouldn't have support. Who knows how many more powerful connections he has.

And speaking of that, the team already feels pretty confident about their first quarter haul so far. Judging from some of the comments of the memo P.G. sent out ("hampered by the politics of the past") he doesn't seem prepared to drop out even if Strickland runs.

I've really got to admire P.G.'s fortitude. This is a tough, tough battle for him to win, but you know, some candidates from 2014 proved us completely wrong and were underestimated. Let's see what he can do.

What do you expect Sittenfield's campaign to say?  I'm sure Jim Webb's Presidential campaign staff say that they're confident about his chances and that they've been blown away by the level of support he's recieving.  No one publicly says "yeah guys, this is basically a suicide run and it'll be a cold day in hell before I/my candidate has a chance of winning."

It's expected that they would be openly optimistic to the public. Yeah. Looking forward to April's fundraising report though, we'll see whether they really do have something to be happy about and whether they really do have a nice sized beginning haul.

FitzGerald got his early fundraising start simply by a huge boost by the party and old campaign funds he had, which is a contrast to P.G. who's building a much-needed national profile of donors. I'm personally eager to see what his CoH is.

The main reason I posted that article though was simply to note Sittenfeld's small jab at Strickland and his willingness to stay in this race which could be a sign of things to come.

If Sittenfield wants to wreck any political future he may have otherwise had so he can get 8-12% against the Democratic nominee (who won't even have to acknowledge Sittenfield's candidacy), I suppose that's his call.  Seems kind of silly though.

I think we're all in agreement that Sittenfeld stands no chance in a primary if Strickland runs. Regardless, I would still back Sittenfeld's candidacy in a hypothetical primary for previously mentioned personal and ideological reasons.

Sittenfeld would perform better than 8-12%, likely with a floor of 20%. Even Larry Ealy, the cringe perennial candidate from last year's Democratic primary got 17% of the vote despite publicly acknowledging he had no idea where Youngstown, Ohio was and not one person having any idea who he was.

Granted, he was facing FitzGerald who also had low name ID and is a weaker candidate than Strickland would be. On the flip side of that though, while Strickland is a lot stronger than FitzGerald, Sittenfeld is a lot stronger (and a lot more credible and sane) then Ealy was.

P.G. would remain relevant with the cash and connections and he would run up the score a little in the metropolitan areas, but it's ultimately Strickland's field.

In a lot of past cases though, the ODP has jumped in and "encouraged" the weaker candidate or the candidate they prefer not to back to drop out. So if Strickland opts out, he does still have a realistic shot at the nomination. On the other hand, if Strickland jumps in, while Sittenfeld himself and his early team would like for him to stay in, his establishment friends might just ask him to drop out and promise party support of him in a local run for say, Hamilton County Commissioner or State Senate in 2016/2018.

Fair enough.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sittenfield and I'd love to see him run for the state legislature.  If he does so and wins, he could be a great candidate against Chabot if that seat becomes competitive (or is drawn fairly) after redistricting.  Any remotely fair/non-gerrymandered map would have likely-to-lean Democratic house seat in Hamilton County.  Even a competitive-to-lean Republican seat is pretty sketchy.  Someone as right-wing as Chabot would be toast in anything short of a lean Republican seat like the old OH-1.  That said, there might be a bit of a line since we have a pretty strong bench in the Cincinnatti area (Pillich, Sittenfield, Cranley, Pepper, Roxanne Qualls, Micah Kamrass, etc).  But I digress,  the point is that Sittenfield will have plenty of opportunities to climb the ladder without embarking on a suicide run.

Yep, despite being in the minority, I think he would have a lot to offer and would be a powerful voice when things like "RTW" or "religious freedom" come before the Assembly. Like I said before, we definitely need someone to primary Thomas who's a really weak candidate and conservative. There is a good chance we could take back the Assembly next decade to, which would set Sittenfeld up for a nice leadership position there.

Don't forget Alicia Reece, Mark Mallory, Chris Seelbach and plenty of other big names from there with strong potential. But yeah, under current lines, OH-1 would be a one term hold at best. If Democrats get control of redistricting again though, then they need to make sure this district is engulfed completely in Cincinnati. We lose one district in 2020 I believe, so there will certainly be more leeway room to give Warren County, Butler County or Hamilton's suburbs to neighboring R districts. Sittenfeld would be only 35-37 years old if/when this happens and could stay in the House for a short awhile before running statewide.

I should also mention, since Kamrass's name was brought up, that it turns out he did endorse P.G. Sittenfeld. He's going to be fundraising with Kamrass and several attorney's in an event he's holding today. I'm pretty sure Mayor Mallory also endorsed him, so it's nice to know he's building up some really nice Hamilton County-based endorsements.

If P.G. gets a cleared Democratic field for him though and it's possible, then I think he could handle a statewide run as early as 2016. He's been really, really impressive as of late with money already brought in.

I don't know who Steelborn is, but Reece and Mallory wouldn't be able to unseat Chabot imo (even in a favorable district, especially not Mallory).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ryan officially out.

The guy has been "future" of the dem party of ohio since 2003 yet always seems to chicken out of runs for higher office at the last moment

No, he's just being very careful about when he runs statewide.  He's on a good committee and has a safe House seat.  He isn't gonna risk that unless the time is right.  Strickland's running this time, so of course Ryan won't run this time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sittenfeld says he's still all in.

If he wants to blow his political career on a suicide run, that's his business.  Doesn't really matter though, Strickland will crush Sittenfield without even acknowledging him and Sittenfield's fundraising will dry up now that Strickland is running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mike Lee endorses Portman. Sorry, Adam. Probably not getting that primary you wanted.

Portman was never going to get a strong primary challenger. The Ohio Tea Party isn't very strong to begin with, and some of the big names like Mandel and Jordan were never going to run.

It didn't help Zawistowski's cause either to find a primary challenger to Portman when the Ohio GOP (who have already endorsed Portman) threatened all of the state legislative Tea Partiers to support/not run against Portman or else. Most of them complied and there's only a small handful of county GOP chairmen and state legislators who haven't endorsed him yet.

So at this point, if Portman does get a primary challenger, it will likely be a no name who Portman ignores.

Any chance of Matt Lynch trying? Or is he just going to challenge Joyce again?

Maybe, but I doubt it.  I think he's about done.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mayor Coleman is endorsing Strickland. Good sign for him, as Coleman was dragging his feet in endorsing FitzGerald and almost ran against Strickland himself in '06.

Actually, he did run against Strickland, but dropped out before the primary.