OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running

[TJ in Oregon]

Sittenfeld is surprisingly sane and reasonable for a City Councilman from the Hipster McHipsterville part of  Cincinnati and I actually do think he has the potential for a bright future within the Democratic Party. I also think that, barring scandal or a wave, he has next to zero chance of unseating Portman. Sittenfeld is a great darkhorse candidate (cuing Joni Ernst or similar comparison) but in order for the darkhorse to win, the lead horse has to stumble, and I can't see Portman making a major gaffe or series of gaffes that undoes him a la Bruce Brailey. Sittenfeld doesn't have the resume to challenge Portman on even close to a neutral year. I'll gladly take him over Sherrod Brown though!

[TJ in Oregon]

There is a world of difference between the state senate and city council.

[TJ in Oregon]

In completely unrelated news, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan has announced that he's now Pro-Choice.

http://politicalwire.com/2015/01/28/lawmaker-changes-mind-abortion/

About as much of a surprise as when Obama came out in favor of gay marriage. Anyone paying attention already knew he held that view. He really changed his mind about 5 years ago.

This could mean he's running for Senate, which would be nice in that he'd probably be replaced and his district can do much better. I suppose he could possibly beat Portman and then I'd eat my words. But I still think Portman can take him.

[TJ in Oregon]

In completely unrelated news, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan has announced that he's now Pro-Choice.

http://politicalwire.com/2015/01/28/lawmaker-changes-mind-abortion/

About as much of a surprise as when Obama came out in favor of gay marriage. Anyone paying attention already knew he held that view. He really changed his mind about 5 years ago.

This could mean he's running for Senate, which would be nice in that he'd probably be replaced and his district can do much better. I suppose he could possibly beat Portman and then I'd eat my words. But I still think Portman can take him.

What do you mean by that? The district is D+12.

His district is full of unemployed steel workers who have the potential to elect a populist type of Dem, or at the very worst the Youngstown equivalent of Marcy Kaptur. Ryan was more or less a new age hippy. It will undoubtedly elect a Den, it's a question of who.

[TJ in Oregon]

P.G.'s career so far has been pretty immaculate and it would be tough for Portman to find worthwhile baggage on him.

Nobody knew Ed FitzGerald was banging Irish girls and couldn't drive until late in his campaign.

As someone who wasn't here for most of 2014, I'm intrigued. Tell me more. I knew FitzGerald's campaign was terrible, but just how terrible could it get?

Also, I'm glad that Adam hasn't stopped being incredibly optimistic about whatever candidate he supports. I'm not even joking, it's honestly refreshing, after feeling cynical about my own state party.

Here's the Atlas thread about the FitzGerald campaign. Enjoy, it's a thrilling one...

[TJ in Oregon]

If Strickland runs, Sittenfeld running against him in the primary gives Sittenfeld an opportunity to get his name out there and build up publicity for a future statewide race. I suspect that's the game plan here.

[TJ in Oregon]

Sittenfeld disclosure months late; investigation likely

"Sittenfeld wouldn't run if he had a scandal because he saw what happened to FitzGerald"

RIP FITZY TALKING POINT (2015-2015)

Men, this is a nothing scandal (at least at the moment).

[TJ in Oregon]

How does getting crushed 3-1 in a primary help his career again?

Name recognition!1!!

But it doesn't help that this is likely to be a very low turnout primary. Didn't Strickland also represent an Appalachian district? I don't really see then how Sittenfeld gets protest votes from them (because of soshulist obummer) if Strickland represented them.

Ohio Democratic primaries always have low turnout, but yeah he did used to represent a district that extended from Youngstown on down to the Kentucky border. Strickland will carry Appalachia in the primary in a blowout no matter what.

It wouldn't be worthwhile for Sittenfeld to campaign in Appalachia in the primary anyways. Just to provide some reasons behind this, 1) Democrats there aren't the Democrats who Sittenfeld wants to identify with, 2) He's naturally a bad fit for SE Ohio, 3) He's running against Ted Strickland and 4) The region doesn't supply all that many votes due to weak registration/turnout numbers (for example, in Strickland's 2006 Democratic primary he got roughly only 16-18% of his total overall votes from Southeast Ohio). It might be best for him to avoid Central Ohio as well (that's very solid, unbreakable Strickland territory).

Sittenfeld's best strategy as long as he stays in is to continue campaigning on college campuses with the youth voting block, and to focus on the two regions where he has the strongest potential of doing well (Southwest and Northeast Ohio). Most of his donors and support are coming from SW Ohio (to be expected) and Strickland under-performs all the time up here in NE Ohio with Democratic base votes, so if I were Sittenfeld I would take full advantage of that.

That aside, he has a floor of about 30% and a ceiling of 40% when all's said and done.

He has a floor of 12% and a ceiling of 28%.

If TEACHOUT can get 34%, so can Sittenfeld.

Teachout got 34% because she had a vision that was actually different than Cuomo's and was able to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Cuomo's policies. Apart from Adam, P.G. Sittenfeld, and probably Sittenfeld's mom, nobody else has much against Strickland or sees a truly different vision between the two to care. Sittenfeld will get maybe 15-20% on name recognition and random voting but that's about it. As much as Adam will claim otherwise, he doesn't offer a vision that looks much different than Strickland's to the average voter. Teachout did.

[TJ in Oregon]

Certainly the Strickland campaign wishes they'd had more cash, but it's less of a big deal for him than most people because everyone in Ohio already knows who Ted Strickland is. What Portman ought to be doing is spending any time he can traveling around Southeast Ohio and try to get the narrative out there that Ted Strickland went off to Cambridge, Massachusetts and forgot where he came from and the values of the people he once represented. Strickland will probably underperform somewhat in the wealthier suburban parts of northern Ohio and of Cincinnati  against Portman. Strickland has to make up for that by carrying his home base in SE Ohio. The map would look like a 90s time warp, especially since it may be occuring with Bush vs Clinton. Throw in Kasich as well as an old face and all the players are the same, just rearranged a little.

...And then there's P.G. Sittenfeld.