2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD

[smoltchanov]

^ In fairness, CD17 swung about 5% to Quinn, but it was the swings around suburban Chicago that killed him.

2010 by CD for reference.

Thanks, Miles! With 17th usually electing Democrats to Congress i didn't expected it to be so anti-Quinn. And Rauner's position on social issues most likely helped him in suburbs..

[Maxwell]

It seems like Bustos won by enough to carry Pat Quinn a few points - Quinn did better in her district than he did in Dold's.

[Mr.Phips]

Quinn managed to lose both 8th and 17th almost by double-digits? And won 9th only by 10? Not surprised that he lost rather convincingly then...

Absolutely pathetic.  Losing the 8th by double digits is completely inexcusable for a Dem.  And only winning the 5th by 13.  Ugh. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Again, I praise the state of Illinois for seeing the light and throwing out that awful Quinn. Rauner can't possibly be worse, and he should be much better.

[Miles]

I was gonna ask Muon, or really any IL poster, is turnout usually that low in CD8? Seems like the average was about 200K votes per CD, but CD8 was just 150K. CD4 was even lower, but that's par for the course.

Again, I praise the state of Illinois for seeing the light and throwing out that awful Quinn. Rauner can't possibly be worse, and he should be much better.

This thread is for Gov by CD analysis, not Individual Politics/opinions. Please take your obnoxious bashing of The People's Pat elsewhere.

[Mr. Illini]

I was gonna ask Muon, or really any IL poster, is turnout usually that low in CD8? Seems like the average was about 200K votes per CD, but CD8 was just 150K. CD4 was even lower, but that's par for the course.

Again, I praise the state of Illinois for seeing the light and throwing out that awful Quinn. Rauner can't possibly be worse, and he should be much better.

This thread is for Gov by CD analysis, not Individual Politics/opinions. Please take your obnoxious bashing of The People's Pat elsewhere.

It shouldn't be that comparatively low, but muon would know more about it than me. It's a largely-white, suburban district (~70%). Contrast with some of the minority-heavy districts in the city where we would expect lower turnout. Pretty spectacular that Rauner was able to win two D+8s and a D+7 by double digits, though.

As for general comments, those suburban numbers from 2010-2014 really do tell the story. ILGOP got right the second time what they should have the first - nominate someone that will appeal in the suburbs. Downstate will go your way anyway nowadays. Rauner killed in in these suburban districts.

[muon2]

I was gonna ask Muon, or really any IL poster, is turnout usually that low in CD8? Seems like the average was about 200K votes per CD, but CD8 was just 150K. CD4 was even lower, but that's par for the course.

It shouldn't be that comparatively low, but muon would know more about it than me. It's a largely-white, suburban district (~70%). Contrast with some of the minority-heavy districts in the city where we would expect lower turnout. Pretty spectacular that Rauner was able to win two D+8s and a D+7 by double digits, though.

As for general comments, those suburban numbers from 2010-2014 really do tell the story. ILGOP got right the second time what they should have the first - nominate someone that will appeal in the suburbs. Downstate will go your way anyway nowadays. Rauner killed in in these suburban districts.

It's not minority districts, but more specifically Latino districts and other areas with large immigrant populations that have low vote totals. IL-1,2 and 7 are all 50% black and get a reasonable vote total. IL-4 is the VRA Latino district and has the lowest vote total. IL-11 has heavily Latino Aurora and has the third lowest vote total. IL-8 was drawn to take in a number of Latino population centers including Elgin, Carpentersville (far NW in the map), Streamwood, Addison and Bensenville. There are also a number of smaller minority and immigrant pockets gerrymandered into the district.

The current Census estimates put IL-8 at 28% Latino, 12% Asian, and 5% Black, with about 28% foreign born. By comparison IL-11 is about 27% Latino, 11% Black, and 7% Asian, but more importantly only 19% foreign born so it has a higher citizen voting population. For reference CD-4 is 70% Latino and 35% foreign born.

[ElectionsGuy]

Absolutely interesting data that shows how a Republican can win Illinois. Great stuff Miles, appreciate the work.

Although, I don't think you should be calling him "The People's Pat", when "The People" voted him out of office.

[Miles]

^ He dedicated his 30+ year career to serving The People.

[Vosem]

Hey, Miles, you added OH to the map, but I'm not sure you ever posted a chart with the OH results -- or at least I can't find it.

And I wanna reiterate that this is very impressive work

[Miles]

^ Sorry, I made a separate thread for all the OH statewide races.

[Miles]

California!





For the map on the right, I only included races where there was a Democrat and Republican running (no runoffs that were intraparty or had third parties).

[Vosem]

EXCELLENT work, Miles! This is going to take me a while to properly digest. I do want to note that Brown's popularity, where he ran ahead -- sometimes quite far ahead -- of congressional Democrats might've been a key component in some of their narrower victories. There are some interesting juxtapositions, which might be meaningful for Republican targeting in the future (Brown won Bera's district, typically thought of as only leaning Democratic, 56/44; he won McNerney's district, thought to be edging on safe, 55/45 (the same margin as Brownley's "competitive" district), and Costa's district, thought of as safe in all but the largest of waves, 54/46; Aguilar's was won just 52/48; Takano's district, thought to be safe, is just 54/46). It should be noted that, besides weird flukes in safe Democratic areas, the only Democratic congressman in a competitive district to run ahead of Brown was Raul Ruiz, who seems like he has a very bright future ahead of him.

Brown carried 2 House seats currently held by Republicans -- very similar, 52/48 margins in CD-10 and CD-21, which are held by Jeff Denham and David Valadao. They are the logical choices for Democratic offensives in California. Pickings are slim after that, but Democrats competed in CD-25 in 2012, which Kashkari carried 57/43. Better choices for their attention might be CDs 39 and 49, held by Ed Royce and Darrell Issa, which Kashkari carried just 55/45 -- but these are flippable only in a wave, and Royce and Issa are both very powerful Republican Congressman. Any Republican offensive should start with Aguilar's and Peters' districts, which are both 52/48 Brown (same margin as Denham and Valadao), and from then go on to Raul Ruiz's district (53/47 Brown, though Ruiz outperformed him), and then onward to competing with Jim Costa and Mark Takano, neither of whom featured prominently on Republican lists in 2014, while Democrats like Ami Bera and Lois Capps, who were targeted, are probably pretty safe.

This pattern is a big part of the explanation for why Democrats pulled off so many narrow House wins in 2014. Republicans ran top-tier candidates against less-vulnerable members of the delegation (Bera and Capps), so those won narrowly, but ran poorer candidates against more-vulnerable members like Jim Costa, leading to those barely winning as well.

Sorry if any of that was off-topic; just some spur-of-the-moment analysis after seeing your chart and maps. Once again, FANTASTIC work, Miles!

[Miles]

^ Thanks!

Most CA counties had pretty accessible data, so that made things a lot easier for me. It was still quite a bit to keep track of, though! I'll have the six other statewide races coming too, so we'll get more data points from that.

[Miles]

California primary:

[Miles]

Colorado and New Mexico:

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

It should be noted that, besides weird flukes in safe Democratic areas, the only Democratic congressman in a competitive district to run ahead of Brown was Raul Ruiz, who seems like he has a very bright future ahead of him.

Interesting that Takano in 41 and Vargas in 51 (provided, they're not in competitive districts, unlike Ruiz) ran a few points ahead of Brown. I assume it must have something to do with Takano and Vargas carrying Latinos (the ones that actually turned out) by a larger margin than Brown, but that might not be necessarily true.

Brown carried 2 House seats currently held by Republicans -- very similar, 52/48 margins in CD-10 and CD-21, which are held by Jeff Denham and David Valadao. They are the logical choices for Democratic offensives in California. Pickings are slim after that, but Democrats competed in CD-25 in 2012, which Kashkari carried 57/43. Better choices for their attention might be CDs 39 and 49, held by Ed Royce and Darrell Issa, which Kashkari carried just 55/45 -- but these are flippable only in a wave, and Royce and Issa are both very powerful Republican Congressman.

Since Dems don't have to sweat district 7 and 52 in the upcoming cycle, they should be desperately trying to unseat Denham and Valadao. However, Valadao in particular has major crossover appeal, and Republicans have been winning two deeply Democratic state Senate seats in this area recently too. At best I see one of the two of them losing.

As much as I hate to admit, I see 25 falling off the competitive map for a short while. If Democrats wanted to win 25 in 2016, they needed Strickland to win in 2014. The Knight family has been around for a few decades in this area (father and son, which is probably the main reason why Knight beat Strickland). If Strickland won, then Dems could have attacked him for moving districts, opportunist, etc. etc. Knight will be around until at least the next redistricting.

If the people of Fullerton, Diamond Bar, and Yorba Linda even hear the name Ed Royce, they shut down because they don't have the time dwell on someone so boring and inoffensive. Beyond a shadow of a doubt safe R. The Democrat who represented Fullerton in the state assembly who would have been the most credible challenger to Royce just lost too.

Issa is also pretty safe, even if he isn't liked. I know a lot of people in his district, and voting for Darrell Issa is like doing your laundry. It's a drudgery, but you have to do it, especially when Republicans are in the majority.

Any Republican offensive should start with Aguilar's and Peters' districts, which are both 52/48 Brown (same margin as Denham and Valadao), and from then go on to Raul Ruiz's district (53/47 Brown, though Ruiz outperformed him), and then onward to competing with Jim Costa and Mark Takano, neither of whom featured prominently on Republican lists in 2014, while Democrats like Ami Bera and Lois Capps, who were targeted, are probably pretty safe.

If all these guys survived 2014, they'll all be fine going forward. Brown is so popular, that his approvals are stunningly even dragging up the state legislature's approvals. Unless there is a Gray Davis-esque collapse in the state Democratic party, or there is an individual scandal with one of them, all the incumbent Democrats up and down the ballot will be fine. And they'll be given plenty of resources to defend their seats if need be.

This pattern is a big part of the explanation for why Democrats pulled off so many narrow House wins in 2014. Republicans ran top-tier candidates against less-vulnerable members of the delegation (Bera and Capps), so those won narrowly, but ran poorer candidates against more-vulnerable members like Jim Costa, leading to those barely winning as well.

The problem for Republicans wasn't people like Bera being secure and they tried to target him anyway. It's the fact that the quality of all their potential candidates range from mediocre to poor. Ose, a former Congressman was given the firepower to win, and still didn't. All things considered, Bera should have lost to Ose in 2014.

Once again, FANTASTIC work, Miles!

Agreed!

[Miles]

Michigan:



For Michigan I had to take a few shortcuts because of some the challenges Wayne County presented.

I'm only accounting for the two-party vote with these results. The 30+ page report of detailed results for Wayne County was unworkable in Excel, and every other program that I know. I had to go in by hand and copy data from the county's precincts into my spreadsheet. I didn't copy data for third parties; that would have taken me hours to copy thousands of more cells, and it was such a small amount of votes.

I didn't copy the precincts for Detroit itself (though I did for every other municipality in Wayne County). After redistricting, 55% of the city's population was in CD13, with the other 45% in CD14. I just assumed that ratio held in the amount of votes cast. The city votes pretty unanimously and consistently Democratic, so I don't think my estimates would be that far off anyway.  

Just to be consistent, I did the two-party results for the rest of the state.

Anyway, the most surprising thing was Schauer losing MI-09. Comparatively, its worse than Burke losing WI-03.

[Miles]

AR:



Aside from CD3, the other districts were almost exactly the same.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. So, formerly Democratic (but frequently - conservative) North-Eastern and Southern Arkansas swung heavily Republican in recent years and Little Rock suburbs outvote a "central city"?

[Miles]

^ Yeah. It was dumb for Democrats to keep CD2 in its current form. It has Little Rock, but its paired with several 65%+ Romney counties.

[smoltchanov]

^ Yeah. It was dumb for Democrats to keep CD2 in its current form. It has Little Rock, but its paired with several 65%+ Romney counties.

Of course. Democrats could easily guarantee itself at least 1 seat in the House.

[Miles]

^ The hard R Little Rock suburbs are also bleeding into CD1, compounded with a D crash in the rural white vote.

[smoltchanov]

^ The hard R Little Rock suburbs are also bleeding into CD1, compounded with a D crash in the rural white vote.

It still of interest to me why this crash occurred exactly now? Not in 1964, not in 1972, not even in 1994 or 2000. For decades, not years, conservative Arkansas rural white Democratic voters were content to send similar conservative Democrats to legislature, and, somewhat more moderate - to Washington (and they were not alone - in many parts of rural South we see similar dynamics). Then, suddenly - ..... I understand that for many southern rural whites Obama is an "anathema": "northern black urban elitist with outstanding education and connections", but is it "per se" enough?

[Miles]

SC: