2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD
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  2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD
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Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD  (Read 26811 times)
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shua
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« Reply #75 on: March 21, 2015, 01:26:50 AM »

^ The hard R Little Rock suburbs are also bleeding into CD1, compounded with a D crash in the rural white vote.

It still of interest to me why this crash occurred exactly now? Not in 1964, not in 1972, not even in 1994 or 2000. For decades, not years, conservative Arkansas rural white Democratic voters were content to send similar conservative Democrats to legislature, and, somewhat more moderate - to Washington (and they were not alone - in many parts of rural South we see similar dynamics). Then, suddenly - ..... I understand that for many southern rural whites Obama is an "anathema": "northern black urban elitist with outstanding education and connections", but is it "per se" enough?

It is a long-term trend that has been accelerated a bit.  You had Clinton/gore in the nineties - which allowed for Democrats to be strong in Arkansas, but there was something of a turn to the Republicans in the South in 1994. Then the Democrats were in opposition in the Bush years, in which case the Democrats in the South and rural areas had more of a chance to promote their own identity rather than be identified with a President or a set of national policies - this was especially the case in 2006. But the growth in Southern Democrat presence in 2006 only partially reversed the ground they'd lost in the past decade. The backlash against Obama and the national Democratic party in 2010-2014 meant that there were fewer Blue Dogs in Congress, which compounded to make it even harder for Democrats due to a lack of presence in leadership in the region.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #76 on: March 21, 2015, 04:08:22 AM »

Agree. But this backlash of 2010 - 2014 was extremely strong. Which role Obama's personality (not politics) played as part of that process? After all - his politics is not so different from those of Clinton, but personalities differ tremendously..
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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: March 21, 2015, 02:05:09 PM »

^ Obama is the opposite the good ol' boy types of Democrats the south was used to. That pretty much sums it up. Combine that with what shua said, and your 6th year midterm, and that explains a lot of it.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2015, 02:22:14 PM »

Well, my "suspicions" are confirmed)))
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Miles
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« Reply #79 on: April 28, 2015, 04:50:05 PM »

Ouch, Michaud lost his own district by 13 points:



There were about 850 ballots that the state didn't allocate to counties/districts, which I didn't count here. They skewed pretty widely to Michaud, but obviously not enough to change anything.
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Skye
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« Reply #80 on: April 28, 2015, 09:44:29 PM »

Ouch, Michaud lost his own district by 13 points:
Well, if the race was supposed to be close, even winning the election narrowly would have meant he would have lost his district. Then again, few people anticipated him losing so badly.
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Miles
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« Reply #81 on: May 01, 2015, 07:41:24 AM »

My AOS diary on the northeastern states.

The map on the OP should be fully updated now.

Other than TN (which should be pretty easy to do once I get to it), the only holdouts will be:

- PA: I'm getting there...slowly. I'm having to go to the individual counties, most have the data I need, its just not in a friendly format.

- AL: DKE told me the state was supposed to send them a file with results...and we've been waiting for months. I haven't heard anything about it. 'Looks like we're just at the mercy of the state here. 'Kinda frustrating, because before 2012, AL had a pretty decent system.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #82 on: May 02, 2015, 10:34:24 AM »

I've got half the PA districts, mostly the western ones:

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #83 on: May 29, 2015, 06:20:00 PM »

There was a trio of relatively small counties which I had to estimate for, and hopefully can get detailed results for (Lebanon, Northumberland, Perry). But other than that, this should be pretty good:


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IceSpear
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« Reply #84 on: May 29, 2015, 08:02:16 PM »

So Wolf wins by double digits yet Corbett wins the most districts. Gerrymandering at its finest.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #85 on: May 29, 2015, 08:04:47 PM »

So Wolf wins by double digits yet Corbett wins the most districts. Gerrymandering at its finest.

Also LOL at Wolf almost losing district 6 and 8.
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Miles
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« Reply #86 on: May 29, 2015, 08:12:29 PM »

^ What surprised me the most was PA-11. Romney won the 2-party vote there 55/45, but Wolf only lost it by 5.

Meh, those suburban PA seats are more R downballot. Wolf's performance in them was pretty much the average of Obama in '08 and '12.
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Skye
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« Reply #87 on: May 29, 2015, 09:05:41 PM »

So Wolf wins by double digits yet Corbett wins the most districts. Gerrymandering at its finest.
Single digits, mind you. But yeah, that's a pretty solid gerrymandering alright.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #88 on: May 30, 2015, 01:09:42 AM »

Here are some comparisons for PA. Wolf is blue, Obama is red.



Wolf vs Obama '08:



Wolf vs Obama '12:



Wolf vs average of Obama'08 and '12:

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #89 on: September 18, 2015, 10:50:30 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2015, 10:57:52 AM by Miles »

I'm assuming we're not gonna get data for AL, so TN is the last state I'm doing. There were a few split precincts between TN-08 and TN-09 that I kinda randomly assigned - its pretty clear anyway that the Democrat carried TN-09 with a few points to spare.



And this is the final map (the AL shadings are my guess):



There were 346 districts total that voted on Governors this year. He'res the breakdown:

Republicans - (58.7%)
Democrats - 142 (41.0%)
Other - 1 (.3%)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #90 on: October 09, 2017, 08:48:39 PM »

It's remarkable that Dayton only won 3 districts in MN with that margin.  Guess it was a sign of things to come.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #91 on: October 10, 2017, 07:28:07 AM »

It's remarkable that Dayton only won 3 districts in MN with that margin.  Guess it was a sign of things to come.

After 2016, it's surprising that the 8th district was one of the three that he won.
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