2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD

[Miles]

There will be more stuff coming, but heres' what I have now (some of these I've already posted in the Senate thread, I just wanted to get them in one place):

AZ:


GA:


IA:


KS:


MN:


NE:


NH:


NV:


Jerry pointed to me to this spreadsheet, which has the non-NYC districts done:

[Miles]

^ Yeah, sorry, they should be reversed.

They're each the same shade of red on the map, so I must have overlooked it.

[Miles]

WI:



Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

[Miles]

Thank you for the interesting information.

Please do Maryland. Republicans won 1 CD in the House, I want to see how many CDs they won in the Governor's election.

Thanks again.

Thanks; yeah, I'm very interested to see how Maryland turns out.

Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

WI-3 is gerrymandered to be safe Democratic, so it's quite impressive that Walker win it. Republicans should definitely compete here the next time there's an open seat, though Kind seems safe.

When I first came up with Walker winning it I thought I made a mistake. I went back to check how I tabulated out the split counties and with the counties split between CD3 and CD7, the CD3 parts where more Democratic and the CD7 parts where more Republican, which fits with the gerrymander. Looks like its accurate.

[Miles]

Florida!

Summary of CDs:



My only disclaimer here is that I excluded Write-In votes for the sake of simplicity; county level Write-In totals often differed from the official statewide numbers. Still, I don't think excluding 137 write-in votes would throw these numbers off that much!

County-level calculations: (right-click to enlarge)



As usual, let me know if anything looks off.

I also did a few bonus maps comparing 2014 to the 2010 results by CD.

This is basically the swing map:



CD 2 was Sink -> Crist while 26 and 27 were Scott -> Crist.

Turnout was up almost 11% statewide from 2010, and increased in every CD:

[Miles]

I sort of was expecting more of a correlation between swing and turnout for some reason. The pandhandle districts and the southernmost districts, which had the most notable swings also had relatively static turnout. I suppose the correlation works better around Tampa with more votes in CDs 12/13 + healthy swing to Crist.

[Miles]

Maryland.

CD Summary:



County detail:



The precinct-level file I downloaded from the state election site only broke the election day totals down by precinct. That was usually 70-85% worth of the vote, so I used my usual formal to fill in the gaps and allocate the early/absentee votes. If I see that they've updated the precinct total, I'll revisit this.

[Miles]

Idaho:



I also did the Superintendent of Public Education, because of its closeness. The districts were pretty much mirror images of each other, the Republican won because more votes came from CD1.

[Miles]

^ Thanks for bringing up MA; Dave has town results posted, so that made it easier to do MA than I thought. I just had to look up a few split towns on my own.

[Miles]

^ I have AR...somewhere. I made a spreadsheet of the statewide averages by CD a while ago and the Governor results are buried in there somewhere.I just need to go dig it up.

[Miles]

^ Hogan's margin in CD1 is also pretty crazy. 77% is a Deep South/Appalachia-like performance.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, from my county breakdown sheet, 63% of the votes in CD8 came from Montgomery County. Brown was still running about 16% behind Obama there, though.

[Miles]

^ Actually, only 42% of the vote in CD5 came from PG. Even in 2012, it was 44%.

[Miles]

I'm aiming to have TX out in the next few days, for both Senate and Governor.

As a 'preview,' I was also curious how Wendy Davis did her in own State Senate seat. She actually would have lost it 53/46. Going further up the ballot, Cornyn would have carried it by almost 16%.

If she ran for reelection, she would have obviously spent more time campaigning in the district, but there's really no guarantee she would have made up the 13.5K votes she'd need to carry the district. Maybe running for Governor was the right call. Go big or go home, I guess (especially in Texas).

[Miles]

^ As in it voted for Cornyn over Alameel by 16%.

[Miles]

Texas

[Miles]

The NY State Board of Elections had results for the rest of the districts:

[Miles]

^ On RRH, they compared NY to CA, and said that Astornio really showed how bad Kashkari was. Neither state had a Senate race to drive up turnout and the Republicans in the Governor's races lost by double-digits, but the Congressional sitaution in the two states was like day and night.

[Miles]

Illinois

Summary:


Detailed breakdowns.

[Miles]

^ In fairness, CD17 swung about 5% to Quinn, but it was the swings around suburban Chicago that killed him.

2010 by CD for reference.

[Miles]

I was gonna ask Muon, or really any IL poster, is turnout usually that low in CD8? Seems like the average was about 200K votes per CD, but CD8 was just 150K. CD4 was even lower, but that's par for the course.

Again, I praise the state of Illinois for seeing the light and throwing out that awful Quinn. Rauner can't possibly be worse, and he should be much better.

This thread is for Gov by CD analysis, not Individual Politics/opinions. Please take your obnoxious bashing of The People's Pat elsewhere.

[Miles]

^ He dedicated his 30+ year career to serving The People.

[Miles]

^ Sorry, I made a separate thread for all the OH statewide races.

[Miles]

California!





For the map on the right, I only included races where there was a Democrat and Republican running (no runoffs that were intraparty or had third parties).

[Miles]

^ Thanks!

Most CA counties had pretty accessible data, so that made things a lot easier for me. It was still quite a bit to keep track of, though! I'll have the six other statewide races coming too, so we'll get more data points from that.