2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD

[smoltchanov]

^ Hogan's margin in CD1 is also pretty crazy. 77% is a Deep South/Appalachia-like performance.

And almost 48% in 8th is also "not bad". Of course, 8th includes parts of Carroll and Frederick, but AFAIK it's most populated part is Montgomery, which is uber Democratic now (no Republican officeholders of any stature).

[smoltchanov]

Quinn managed to lose both 8th and 17th almost by double-digits? And won 9th only by 10? Not surprised that he lost rather convincingly then...

[smoltchanov]

^ In fairness, CD17 swung about 5% to Quinn, but it was the swings around suburban Chicago that killed him.

2010 by CD for reference.

Thanks, Miles! With 17th usually electing Democrats to Congress i didn't expected it to be so anti-Quinn. And Rauner's position on social issues most likely helped him in suburbs..

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. So, formerly Democratic (but frequently - conservative) North-Eastern and Southern Arkansas swung heavily Republican in recent years and Little Rock suburbs outvote a "central city"?

[smoltchanov]

^ Yeah. It was dumb for Democrats to keep CD2 in its current form. It has Little Rock, but its paired with several 65%+ Romney counties.

Of course. Democrats could easily guarantee itself at least 1 seat in the House.

[smoltchanov]

^ The hard R Little Rock suburbs are also bleeding into CD1, compounded with a D crash in the rural white vote.

It still of interest to me why this crash occurred exactly now? Not in 1964, not in 1972, not even in 1994 or 2000. For decades, not years, conservative Arkansas rural white Democratic voters were content to send similar conservative Democrats to legislature, and, somewhat more moderate - to Washington (and they were not alone - in many parts of rural South we see similar dynamics). Then, suddenly - ..... I understand that for many southern rural whites Obama is an "anathema": "northern black urban elitist with outstanding education and connections", but is it "per se" enough?

[smoltchanov]

Agree. But this backlash of 2010 - 2014 was extremely strong. Which role Obama's personality (not politics) played as part of that process? After all - his politics is not so different from those of Clinton, but personalities differ tremendously..

[smoltchanov]

Well, my "suspicions" are confirmed)))