Which is likelier (or less unlikely)?
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  Which is likelier (or less unlikely)? 		« previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which is likelier (or less unlikely)?
#1
Clinton wins at least 3 of MO, AR, LA, KY, WV, GA		  
#2
Walker or Kasich wins every midwestern state except IL		  
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Author Topic: Which is likelier (or less unlikely)?  (Read 2807 times)
JRP1994
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« on: January 06, 2015, 09:26:31 PM »
Go.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2015, 09:48:34 PM »
Good question. MO/GA are possible for Hillary in good circumstances, but the others are extremely unlikely. On the other hand, MI/MN are extremely unlikely for the Republicans. So basically, it's which is more likely: Republicans win MI/MN, or Hillary wins one of AR/LA/KY/WV. I'm going with Republicans winning MI/MN, just because the strength of the trend in the Appalachian states is simply too great.
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Intell
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2015, 09:52:02 PM »
Option 1, though unlikely, Hillary could win, Missouri, Georgia and Arkansas. The other states are, extremely unlikely.
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SWE
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2015, 09:57:13 PM »
Option 2 (not a moron)
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2015, 10:08:48 PM »
If Jed Bartlett can win the plains anything's possible. (neither will happen)
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2015, 11:29:29 PM »
It's much likelier for Walker, Kasich, or any Republican nominee to carry the midwestern states.

The toughest would be Michigan, which Obama won by ten percent. He was an incumbent President running in a good year for the party.

It seems really unlikely that Hillary would win a state Obama lost by 17 points in an okay year for her party.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2015, 12:10:38 AM »
It's clearly Option B.  Clinton winning any of AR/KY/WV would be at least as hard as Walker winning IL. 
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2015, 01:18:14 AM »
Clinton winning Missouri, Arkansas, and Georgia is more likely than the Republicans picking up Michigan or Minnesota in the next cycle, even among their best chances in Walker and Kasich.
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Cory
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« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2015, 01:26:50 AM »
Quote from: Intell on January 06, 2015, 09:52:02 PM
Option 1, though unlikely, Hillary could win, Missouri, Georgia and Arkansas. The other states are, extremely unlikely.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2015, 01:24:39 PM »
A scenario where Hillary Clinton wins Arkansas, Georgia, and Missouri is far more likely than a scenario where Walker/Kasich wins all of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2015, 02:16:05 PM »
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2015, 03:38:48 PM »
Easily the 2nd option, though knowing the Hillary hacks here I'm not surprised the first option is winning.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2015, 03:44:08 PM »
Option 2, but both are extremely unlikely.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2015, 03:47:00 PM »
Quote from: Stockdale for Veep on January 06, 2015, 10:08:48 PM
If Jed Bartlett can win the plains anything's possible. (neither will happen)

If Arnold Vinnick can win Vermont anything is possible
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TomC
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« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2015, 04:25:33 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on January 07, 2015, 03:44:08 PM
Option 2, but both are extremely unlikely.
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Tayya
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« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2015, 08:14:11 PM »
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RFayette
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2015, 09:04:15 PM »
2 for sure.  The interior south is just dead for the Dems.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2015, 10:49:21 PM »
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2015, 12:31:20 AM »
Quote from: Intell on January 06, 2015, 09:52:02 PM
Option 1, though unlikely, Hillary could win, Missouri, Georgia and Arkansas. The other states are, extremely unlikely.
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