Could Democrats net Senate seats in 2018 if...

[ClimateDem]

In this scenario, Hillary wins in 2016. Democrats take control of the Senate that year with a margin of 52 seats. However in the 114th Congress, there is a fight over the Keystone pipeline and the Republicans manage to cut enough deals with House and Senate Democrats in order to overrule the veto. The pipeline is functioning in 2018 when a section of the pipeline in Nebraska ruptures and contaminates the aquifer in the fall of 2018 before the election. It is announced that farmers can no longer use the aquifer for farming, and suddenly their livelihood is at risk. All Senate Republicans up for election voted for the pipeline including Deb Fischer.

In this situation, could Senate Democrats buck recent midterm trends and net senate seats?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

God announces from the heavens to the world he's a Democrat and implores everyone to vote, leading Dems to hold all of their seats and gaining Nevada. Only plausible scenario for them gaining a seat.

[dmmidmi]

God announces from the heavens to the world he's a Democrat and implores everyone to vote, leading Dems to hold all of their seats and gaining Nevada. Only plausible scenario for them gaining a seat.

That probably won't even do it, since they might have to defend an open seat in Florida.

[IceSpear]

Considering NV and AZ are the only remotely plausible Democratic pick ups...no. Plus it's a midterm.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     After 2006 and 2012, the Republicans have pretty much bottomed-out with that class of Senate seats. Nowhere to go but up from here.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

In this scenario, Hillary wins in 2016.

no, then. if a republican wins in 2016 there's a slight outside chance, but otherwise…

[Orser67]

Mid-term elections usually go against the party holding the presidency, and Democrats have 5 red state seats to defend along with a few swing state seats. Meanwhile, they only have one really good target in Nevada, and one decent target in Arizona.

I don't think that a Keystone disaster would be bad enough to counteract all of the above trends, though it could maybe put Nebraska in play and help Democrats in Montana and possibly North Dakota.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Donnelly IN and Joe Manchin WVA are really the two seats that are jeopordy. Given the gubneratorial elections in OH, MD, WI, MA in holding our own there, in the senate.  

I am not the one to say that we are guarenteed the majority should we win OH, NH, IL, PA, WI, +5 result, an election this far out without knowing the result in 2016, is purely speculatory.

And should we lose in 2018, we have an excellent chance to recapture it in 2020, given our chances in IA, CO and NC, again.

[Vosem]

There's a shot if a Republican wins the presidential race in 2016 and things go poorly, but I don't think Democrats can possibly gain in a Hillary midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the Dems aren't going cede anything to Jeb Bush, with the presidency at stake.

[moderatevoter]

I think the Dems aren't going cede anything to Jeb Bush, with the presidency at stake.

The Presidential Election is in 2016. We're talking about 2018 here, bud.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was referring to their point if a G O P president is elected, it bodes well for a Democratic congress, which failed miserably in 2002.

[moderatevoter]

Okay, well you said "with the presidency at stake," which suggested there was a Presidential election at the same time.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I was referring to their point if a G O P president is elected, it bodes well for a Democratic congress, which failed miserably in 2002.

You're mixing up 2016 and 2018 senate races. If the democrats capture the senate 51-49, 52-48, or even 54-46 in 2016, the republicans can easily recapture it in 2018 by just picking off the 5 romney-state democratic seats up that year - ND, MT, MO, IN, and WV. Should the republicans miss something there, it can be made up in VA, OH, FL, or WI. The path for the democrats keeping a modest post-2016 majority in 2018 is difficult beyond any doubt, no matter who is president, because unless it's an utter G.W. Bush type failure, which Jeb probably wouldn't be, 2018 will likely be another republican wave.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Republicans will have a filibuster-proof Senate majority after 2018.

[Maxwell]

If Hillary wins, 2018 WILL be a slaughter.

[Mister Mets]

They pretty much ran the table in 2012, so it would take extraordinary circumstances for the party to gain more seats in '18, especially if Hillary Clinton's in the White House.

The scenario you suggest wouldn't be bad enough for Republicans, since it still requires enough Democratic support to overturn the veto. An event in Fall 2018 would also be too late to encourage top-tier Democratic candidates to enter potentially competitive races.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

I wonder if it's possible though that we could at least get a quiet midterm for once where there's no change or maybe a net loss of only one seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin are the ones badly in shape, but it is premature to talk about a wave since WI,MD,ME,IL and MI governorships are at stake. And possible Democratic targets.

Bill Nelson will probably retire. So, right now, 3 Democratic seats are at risk and NV GOP seat at risk.  There is a plausible scenario for Dems to keep majority if we net 5 or 6 seats.

[Xing]

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2016, it's plausible, though still not likely. If Hillary wins in 2016, though, there's no way. The best Democrats could hope for would be a net loss of 2 or so.

[tmthforu94]

If Hillary wins, 2018 WILL be a slaughter.

Agreed. The upside for Republicans is that if we win the Presidency in 2016 and hold the Senate, we likely would have full congressional control until 2020. Don't see Democrats taking back either house in a 2018 midterm.

[ElectionsGuy]

The ONLY way Democrats gain seats in 2018 is if they get Nevada and retain everything else. Literally 0.1% chance of happening.

[MATTROSE94]

The only way that the Democrats would have a chance at holding onto the Senate in 2018 is if the end up picking up Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana. Even though the odds of the Democrats picking up all 14 of those seats is less than 1%, they would end up with a 60-seat majority in the 115th Congress.

Realistically, the only seats that are entirely in play for the Democrats in 2016 are Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, whereas the Republicans have a chance at making Nevada and Colorado competitive. Assuming that the Democrats pick up the 7 that I listed and the Republicans pick up the 2 that they could be competitive in, there would be an overall net gain of 5 seats for the Democrats giving them a 51-49 majority.

It pretty much goes without saying that the Democrats are at a disadvantage in the 2018 midterm elections. In addition to having to defend several Senate seats in states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012, the Republicans have a pretty strong bench of Senate candidates to choose from. Some of the strongest potential Republican Senate candidates for 2018 include John Kasich, Ed Gillespie, Susana Martinez, Matt Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Pence, Marc Racicot, Charlie Dent, Adam Putnam, David McKinely and Scott Walker.

[The Other Castro]

Winning 14 seats in 2016 wouldn't give them just a chance, it would make Democrats heavily favored to keep the senate in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 Dems pick up 5 net seats OH, NH, PA, IL, WI while holding onto CO, NV

2018 Dems lose 2 in IN and WVA while picking up NV

2020 Dems win CO and IA at the least while holding onto Senate


Be advised this isn't a prediction, this is the Dems best case scenario to regaining control and maintaining control of Senate.  Until the next censeus, so the new House delegation can be written and  a pathway to the majority in the House has taken place in 2020