The IOC has proven leery in the past to centennial games, so I doubt Paris will get the nod. Hamburg seems likelier than Paris if Europe gets 2024. Strong support and a new Olympic city are both pluses for Hamburg.
Hamburg has a referendum, and Paris fits better with recent trend of alpha cities (Sydney, Beijing, London, Rio, Tokyo). Also, Paris fits the narrative of less ...extravagant over-the-top spending. (Not really, of course, but they already have a lot of preexisting venues.)
Centennials are a null point, considering that Athens 96 was the only one to bid, and it had nothing going for it other being a centennial.