Which of these three swing states is most likely to
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  Which of these three swing states is most likely to
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Question: continue being swing states, instead of turning into a D leaning state?
#1
Virginia
 
#2
North Carolina
 
#3
Florida
 
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Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Which of these three swing states is most likely to  (Read 5201 times)
I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« on: January 09, 2015, 07:00:15 AM »

Well, what do you think? I can honestly see Virginia and North Carolina becoming D leaning states by the 2020 election, while Florida remains a swing state.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2015, 10:51:09 AM »

Depends on what the parties do and if those states' trends remain the same.  VA and NC are lurching left because East Coast liberals are moving in and minority populations are growing.  Once upon a time and not so long ago ('70s and '80s), Northeast transplants were actually making the South much more fiscally conservative and Republican.  So you never know.

Florida is the safe bet.
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2015, 10:52:32 AM »

I assume the FDP will do everything to ensure the answer be Florida
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Sol
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2015, 10:54:21 AM »

North Carolina, because it's a little further behind demographically.

Florida is undergoing demographic changes as dramatically as in Georgia, if not more so. I'm surprised this gets so little attention.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2015, 11:20:58 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 11:23:21 AM by bobloblaw »

These silly assumptions assume that states move independently from the national popular vote. They dont. In 1996, AZ was a swing state. In 1984, MN was a swing state.

If the GOP candidate is polling at 51% or higher, MI, WI and PA are swing states. If the Dem candidate is polling above 52%, then GA and AZ are swing states.

The left is completely obsessed with the notion of a permanent majority based on nothing but demographics. It wont happen.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2015, 11:22:54 AM »

North Carolina, because it's a little further behind demographically.

Florida is undergoing demographic changes as dramatically as in Georgia, if not more so. I'm surprised this gets so little attention.

Because going back 20 years Florida's popular vote result relative to the national popualr vote result hasnt changed. In 2000, FL was about R+1, in 2004, it was about R+1, in 2012 it was about R+1.5
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DS0816
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2015, 01:15:27 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 05:15:54 PM by DS0816 »

These silly assumptions assume that states move independently from the national popular vote. They dont. In 1996, AZ was a swing state. In 1984, MN was a swing state.

If the GOP candidate is polling at 51% or higher, MI, WI and PA are swing states. If the Dem candidate is polling above 52%, then GA and AZ are swing states.

The left is completely obsessed with the notion of a permanent majority based on nothing but demographics. It wont happen.

"Swing state" is being used too loosely.

1984 Minnesota was about 19 percentage points more Democratic than the nation; the only one carried by native son and Democratic presidential nominee (and former vice president) Walter Mondale; and in a landslide re-election in which incumbent Republican president Ronald Reagan won the U.S. Popular Vote by over 18 percentage points and electoral-vote score of 525.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2015, 03:59:14 PM »

North Carolina is still a lean-GOP state, so it will still be a little while before it's even a lean-Democratic state.

I think all of these states will remain generally competitive for now.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2015, 04:05:19 PM »

If these states aren't competitive anymore, Republicans have locked themselves out of the electoral college. So I think the GOP will eventually evolve to continue competing in these states.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2015, 06:28:14 PM »

If these states aren't competitive anymore, Republicans have locked themselves out of the electoral college. So I think the GOP will eventually evolve to continue competing in these states.

Why should the GOP "Evolve" when they have more elected officials today than anytime since 1928
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2015, 06:49:14 PM »

North Carolina, because it's a little further behind demographically.

Florida is undergoing demographic changes as dramatically as in Georgia, if not more so. I'm surprised this gets so little attention.

Florida dramatically trended Democratic in the 90's and was R + 0.5 in the 2000 election. Since then it has actually trended Republican and is R + 3. Although it did trend Democratic in 2012.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2015, 09:06:17 PM »

FL will definitely be dangerous for the GOP unless they can make up ground among Hispanics.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2015, 10:38:47 PM »

Honestly, I think they will all remain competitive states. But the OP seems to asking which will be the least Democratic out of all of them, which I would say is North Carolina.
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pikachu
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« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2015, 04:30:41 PM »

Florida. I think the GOP will do whatever they have to in order to keep it competitive since it is very hard to see a path to 270 without it.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2015, 04:44:15 PM »

I think North Carolina is still the most culturally "Southern" among these states and thus the most likely to remain a swing state for the foreseeable future.

Obama collapsed among white voters in Florida, he lost Volusia County (which had even voted for Kerry while the state went to Bush by 5 points) and fell below the 60% mark in Palm Beach (which again had gone 60%+ even for Kerry), yet still won the state thanks to the strong Dem trend in Miami-Dade (he also gained ground in Broward). The GOP has also collapsed in the Orlando area. Orange County only voted for Kerry by 0.21% while Osceola County voted for Bush. Obama got 58% in Orange and broke 60% in Osceola.

The GOP's competitiveness in Florida is helped a lot by the ineptitude of the state's Democratic Party. And the GOP knows there is no path to victory without the state's 29 electoral votes and will continue to heavily pound the state with money and resources to make it competitive. But Florida was a state Mitt Romney should have won yet failed to do so.

Virginia is already a lean-Dem state, and it's only going to get more Democratic.

So I vote NC.
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Orser67
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« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2015, 09:17:12 PM »

These silly assumptions assume that states move independently from the national popular vote. They dont. In 1996, AZ was a swing state. In 1984, MN was a swing state.

And in 1984 New Hampshire gave 69% of its vote to Reagan, making it 10% more Republican-leaning than the country; today, New Hampshire is slightly Dem-leaning. Parts of the left are overly optimistic that a "permanent Democratic majority" is just over the horizon, and PVI is a really useful tool for understanding elections. But states aren't permanently locked into swinging with the national popular vote.

To answer the question, it's easy to see Virginia moving a little more towards the Democrats and becoming more of a second-tier target. I'm not sure which of North Carolina and Florida is less likely to be competitive in the future.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: January 11, 2015, 09:17:54 PM »

I think North Carolina is still the most culturally "Southern" among these states and thus the most likely to remain a swing state for the foreseeable future.

Obama collapsed among white voters in Florida, he lost Volusia County (which had even voted for Kerry while the state went to Bush by 5 points) and fell below the 60% mark in Palm Beach (which again had gone 60%+ even for Kerry), yet still won the state thanks to the strong Dem trend in Miami-Dade (he also gained ground in Broward). The GOP has also collapsed in the Orlando area. Orange County only voted for Kerry by 0.21% while Osceola County voted for Bush. Obama got 58% in Orange and broke 60% in Osceola.

The GOP's competitiveness in Florida is helped a lot by the ineptitude of the state's Democratic Party. And the GOP knows there is no path to victory without the state's 29 electoral votes and will continue to heavily pound the state with money and resources to make it competitive. But Florida was a state Mitt Romney should have won yet failed to do so.

Virginia is already a lean-Dem state, and it's only going to get more Democratic.

So I vote NC.

VA is NOT a Dem lean state, it is an R+0 state from R+2 in 2004. If the Dem win the national popualr vote, they will carry VA, if the GOP wins the national popular vote, they will win VA.

Before you get into the 2013 VA elections, what would those elections look like if Gov McDonnell hadnt been so corrupt? Cucinelli likely would have won.
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Kraxner
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« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2015, 09:58:13 PM »

I think North Carolina is still the most culturally "Southern" among these states and thus the most likely to remain a swing state for the foreseeable future.

Obama collapsed among white voters in Florida, he lost Volusia County (which had even voted for Kerry while the state went to Bush by 5 points) and fell below the 60% mark in Palm Beach (which again had gone 60%+ even for Kerry), yet still won the state thanks to the strong Dem trend in Miami-Dade (he also gained ground in Broward). The GOP has also collapsed in the Orlando area. Orange County only voted for Kerry by 0.21% while Osceola County voted for Bush. Obama got 58% in Orange and broke 60% in Osceola.

The GOP's competitiveness in Florida is helped a lot by the ineptitude of the state's Democratic Party. And the GOP knows there is no path to victory without the state's 29 electoral votes and will continue to heavily pound the state with money and resources to make it competitive. But Florida was a state Mitt Romney should have won yet failed to do so.

Virginia is already a lean-Dem state, and it's only going to get more Democratic.

So I vote NC.

VA is NOT a Dem lean state, it is an R+0 state from R+2 in 2004. If the Dem win the national popualr vote, they will carry VA, if the GOP wins the national popular vote, they will win VA.

Before you get into the 2013 VA elections, what would those elections look like if Gov McDonnell hadnt been so corrupt? Cucinelli likely would have won.


The government shutdown also caused a lot of government workers and people who had families/friend doing that kind of work to vote in an off-year.  Although its interesting that Cucinelli+Sarvis who both represented the right-wing economic vote while differing really really big with social views. Combined would of had a 51% majority.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2015, 04:57:28 PM »

yes, govt shutdown definitely hurt the GOP in VA.
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DS0816
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« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2015, 05:21:32 PM »

If these states aren't competitive anymore, Republicans have locked themselves out of the electoral college. So I think the GOP will eventually evolve to continue competing in these states.

Why should the GOP "Evolve" when they have more elected officials today than anytime since 1928

Yes, from non-presidential years "[the Republicans] have more elected officials...."
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Flake
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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2015, 06:38:59 PM »

I assume the FDP will do everything to ensure the answer be Florida
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #21 on: January 13, 2015, 09:53:40 PM »

North Carolina
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2015, 01:28:46 AM »

Florida has been an R-leaning state for a very long time. Not since 1976 has it been more Democratic than the US as a whole. Florida is close in Democratic wins, but it can be freakishly far from competitive in strong GOP wins.

It went 66-34 for Reagan in 1984, 72-28 for Nixon in 1972, 61-39 for Bush in 1988.

It was the second-narrowest win for LBJ in 1964 (his 43rd-"best" state).
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2015, 05:14:44 PM »

Florida.  Its been quite static over the past two decades and the GOP will continue to invest heavily there.  VA and NC are changing very, very quickly in the Democrats' favor.
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