South Carolina

[KingSweden]

I've seen a lot of speculative maps in the What-ifs and Trends sections of the forum where SC is tossup or D sometime after the next decade, which seems to contradict what little I know about this (very conservative) state. Is this state actually trending D or likely to do so? If so, why and what demographics/areas are causing this?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I've seen a lot of speculative maps in the What-ifs and Trends sections of the forum where SC is tossup or D sometime after the next decade, which seems to contradict what little I know about this (very conservative) state. Is this state actually trending D or likely to do so? If so, why and what demographics/areas are causing this?

I haven't noticed anything like this.  The State is very Conservative and will elect whoever runs as a Republican.  They couldn't even elect a very Conservative Democrat in 2008 to the Senate.

[Rockefeller GOP]

If I'm not mistaken, SC almost voted for Ike twice and barely voted for Carter.  When you consider that it had Strom Thurmond who flipped to the GOP well before Republicans had power in the South (say what you want about civil rights, there were MANY more segregationist Democrats who remained in the party until the day they died), it seems they've always been more conservative than their neighbors (or at least post-New Deal).

[KingSweden]

See what you guys all say is what I've always thought, that SC is considerably more right-wing than its neighbors Georgia or North Carolina (and especially Virginia and Florida, and maybe even Tennessee though to a lesser extent). I also didn't think that the people moving to South Carolina were part of the rising electorate the Democrats are reliant upon to flip Atlantic South states, so the speculative maps in some of these threads puzzle me when they show SC as a future swing state.

[buritobr]

When I read topics like "State _______ will become a swing state in the future because of the demographic change" I ask: will blacks and white southeners vote forever according to the color of the skin? Is it possible that when the demographic change happens, people vote according to other issues?

[bobloblaw]

When I read topics like "State _______ will become a swing state in the future because of the demographic change" I ask: will blacks and white southeners vote forever according to the color of the skin? Is it possible that when the demographic change happens, people vote according to other issues?

What liberals desperately want is a permanent majority based on nothing but race. Where candidates, issues, recession, foreign policy scandals simply dont matter. Where becasue of race, the D win everytime. Sort of like South Africa under the ANC.

To understand this you have to understand that progressives dont really believe in democracy (they admire Cuba and Venezuela afteall). The deeply believe that government, run by the right people, can bring about "The Perfection of Man" They have believed this for over 100 years. When they fail to bring about utopia, thay blame conservatives for obstruction or lack of support. This is the bassis the the left's hatred of conservatism. Conservatives obstruct utopia (defined as no more fossil fuels, gun control, no inequality, free healthcare for all, everyone riding mass transit and lavish funding for the arts).

[MATTROSE94]

If I'm not mistaken, SC almost voted for Ike twice and barely voted for Carter.  When you consider that it had Strom Thurmond who flipped to the GOP well before Republicans had power in the South (say what you want about civil rights, there were MANY more segregationist Democrats who remained in the party until the day they died), it seems they've always been more conservative than their neighbors (or at least post-New Deal).

Jimmy Carter actually received over 56% of the vote in South Carolina in 1976 and Ronald Reagan barely won it in 1980.

[hopper]

When I read topics like "State _______ will become a swing state in the future because of the demographic change" I ask: will blacks and white southeners vote forever according to the color of the skin? Is it possible that when the demographic change happens, people vote according to other issues?

What liberals desperately want is a permanent majority based on nothing but race. Where candidates, issues, recession, foreign policy scandals simply dont matter. Where becasue of race, the D win everytime. Sort of like South Africa under the ANC.

To understand this you have to understand that progressives dont really believe in democracy (they admire Cuba and Venezuela afteall). The deeply believe that government, run by the right people, can bring about "The Perfection of Man" They have believed this for over 100 years. When they fail to bring about utopia, thay blame conservatives for obstruction or lack of support. This is the bassis the the left's hatred of conservatism. Conservatives obstruct utopia (defined as no more fossil fuels, gun control, no inequality, free healthcare for all, everyone riding mass transit and lavish funding for the arts).

Well yeah the left does talk about race a lot so much so that is polarizing to me. In my opinion(Dem Congressional Lawmakers) though its just their experience that they have been through in terms of race.

Minorities don't vote D because of race. Minorities vote D because they like Big Government and/or they dislike the Republicans more than the Dems. The Dems are the lesser of the two evils to them.

[hopper]

When I read topics like "State _______ will become a swing state in the future because of the demographic change" I ask: will blacks and white southeners vote forever according to the color of the skin? Is it possible that when the demographic change happens, people vote according to other issues?

Well its a little more complictated than that. Remember "The South" used to be Solid Dem at one point although a way more "Centrist Dem" than the Dem party nationally. Of course "The Southern Strategy" With Nixon back in 1968 changed all that as did the "White Evangelical Vote" going Republican in 1980 with Reagan and the White Evangelicals have voted Republican ever since. Remember White Evangelicals went for Carter I think in 1976 but rejected him in 1980.

[hopper]

No I don't see SC being a competitive state in terms of Presidential Elections anytime soon. The Demographics aren't there for it.

[pikachu]

Won't become competitive barring realignment or something but there some fluke polls in 2011 that had Obama leading Republicans in SC.

[Indy Texas]

What liberals desperately want is a permanent majority based on nothing but race. Where candidates, issues, recession, foreign policy scandals simply dont matter. Where becasue of race, the D win everytime. Sort of like South Africa under the ANC.

Better to have South Africa under the ANC than what the Republicans want, which is South Africa under Apartheid.

[Del Tachi]

South Carolina has strong growth potential, and along with Louisiana I think that it represents the best candidate for the "New Florida" of the 21st Century.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

What liberals desperately want is a permanent majority based on nothing but race. Where candidates, issues, recession, foreign policy scandals simply dont matter. Where becasue of race, the D win everytime. Sort of like South Africa under the ANC.

Better to have South Africa under the ANC than what the Republicans want, which is South Africa under Apartheid.

Check the calendar.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I just don't see how this state could go further Republican than it already has.  However, that doesn't mean we'll start swinging to the Democrats.

[Frodo]

I am not seeing South Carolina going anywhere politically for some to come.  Of course, things could change in the next twenty or thirty years or so.  We could enter an economic boom (as it looks like we are beginning to), and see a new huge wave of immigrants (let's say from sub-Saharan Africa) flooding the Charleston (and Savannah) metro area in the wake of the completion of the Panama Canal expansion, and the subsequent deepening of the two ports.  Coupled with a renewed investment into our infrastructure, there could be plenty of jobs for all. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't think it'll take an immigrant flood.  (And even if one happened, I think it more likely to come from Latin America than sub-Saharan Africa.  It would take Europe going into a tailspin economically for that to not remain the principal place Africans seek to immigrate to.)  We've hit the point where even Republicans are starting to get disgusted with mindless anti-tax rhetoric. (Not disgusted enough to start raising taxes to pay for needed services, but still...)  In this state, that's because the local politicians are getting tired of the General Assembly continuing to hand responsibilities off to them while simultaneously not providing the funds and prohibiting them from raising local taxes themselves as much as would be needed to make up the shortfall.

[hopper]

I don't think it'll take an immigrant flood.  (And even if one happened, I think it more likely to come from Latin America than sub-Saharan Africa.  It would take Europe going into a tailspin economically for that to not remain the principal place Africans seek to immigrate to.)  We've hit the point where even Republicans are starting to get disgusted with mindless anti-tax rhetoric. (Not disgusted enough to start raising taxes to pay for needed services, but still...)  In this state, that's because the local politicians are getting tired of the General Assembly continuing to hand responsibilities off to them while simultaneously not providing the funds and prohibiting them from raising local taxes themselves as much as would be needed to make up the shortfall.

I don't mind a tax increase here and there if that's all you can do to pay the bills but not every year. Like in NJ we need a gas tax increase to pay for road construction I don't mind as long as it goes to road construction and nothing but road construction.

[hopper]

I just don't see how this state could go further Republican than it already has.  However, that doesn't mean we'll start swinging to the Democrats.

I think it will stay at "Lean R". Yes there are growing population areas in SC that are trending Dem but there are  growing population area's that are trending R so basically those 2 trends cross each other out. Its not like VA and NC where all the population growth area's are trending D.

[ElectionsGuy]

What liberals desperately want is a permanent majority based on nothing but race. Where candidates, issues, recession, foreign policy scandals simply dont matter. Where becasue of race, the D win everytime. Sort of like South Africa under the ANC.

Better to have South Africa under the ANC than what the Republicans want, which is South Africa under Apartheid.

Did Lief hack into your account?

[Del Tachi]

If I'm not mistaken, SC almost voted for Ike twice and barely voted for Carter.  When you consider that it had Strom Thurmond who flipped to the GOP well before Republicans had power in the South (say what you want about civil rights, there were MANY more segregationist Democrats who remained in the party until the day they died), it seems they've always been more conservative than their neighbors (or at least post-New Deal).

The fact that South Carolina underwent a similar political evolution to that of Virginia or Florida rather than Mississippi or Alabama seems to suggest that it will become Democratic sooner than most other Southern states.

I expect we will see an lowland vs. upland dynamic emerge in the Palmetto State, with the Black Belt and the Coast becoming overwhelmingly Democratic while the Greenville area remains staunchly conservative. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If I'm not mistaken, SC almost voted for Ike twice and barely voted for Carter.  When you consider that it had Strom Thurmond who flipped to the GOP well before Republicans had power in the South (say what you want about civil rights, there were MANY more segregationist Democrats who remained in the party until the day they died), it seems they've always been more conservative than their neighbors (or at least post-New Deal).

The fact that South Carolina underwent a similar political evolution to that of Virginia or Florida rather than Mississippi or Alabama seems to suggest that it will become Democratic sooner than most other Southern states.

I expect we will see an lowland vs. upland dynamic emerge in the Palmetto State, with the Black Belt and the Coast becoming overwhelmingly Democratic while the Greenville area remains staunchly conservative. 

Maybe if establishment Republicans are driven out of the GOP by the tea partiers, but while that is a Democratic dream, I'm dubious it'll ever be reality.

[bedstuy]

Look at Obama 2008 vs. Kerry 2004:

Obama 2008:
SC: 45%
WV: 42.5%

Kerry 2004:
SC: 40.9%
WV: 43.2%

Obama did pretty well in South Carolina based on maxing out black voters.  But, that is a great strategy to lose by 9-10%.  After that, there's no real hope for a Democrat.  Too many people are just culturally and politically conservative.  It's like a Republican winning New Jersey or Connecticut.  You can win almost every persuadable voter, but still lose.