Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings

[Miles]

Article.

Ratings map.

Every state is at least Tilting towards its current party, except WI and IL are Tossups.

[moderatevoter]

*Rothenberg & Gonzales

[Miles]

^ I wonder when Sabato & Kondik will put out their Senate ratings...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ I wonder when Sabato & Kondik will put out their Senate ratings...

Sabato already has senate, house, and governor rankings issued, as does Cook.

[The Other Castro]

California and Utah should both be favored, not safe, given that CA will be open and Matheson might run in Utah. Also, not sure why they have Ayotte as Lean but Rubio as only tilt.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

California and Utah should both be favored, not safe, given that CA will be open and Matheson might run in Utah. Also, not sure why they have Ayotte as Lean but Rubio as only tilt.

The % of the electorate voting against Rubio in 2010 was much larger than the % of the electorate voting against Ayotte.

[NewYorkExpress]

Utah should be Safe R. Even if Matheson runs, he's not going to get close.

Kentucky should be Lean R until Rand Paul makes up his mind about whether he's running for President or Senate.

New Hampshire and Ohio should be Tilt/R (that's with the incumbents)

Nevada should be Tilt/R (Even if Sandoval doesn't run, someone's going to beat Ried, he can't jab and weave forever)

Both Illinois and Wisconsin should be Tilt/D (I'm being generous with Illinois, too)

[free my dawg]

Looks about right, though I might put NH at Tilts R because elasticity.

[Maxwell]

McCain retiring would vault Arizona to a toss-up? LOLOLOL

[IceSpear]

Blunt and Coats are not safe if it turns out to be a good D year.

[LeBron]

All the Democratic ratings look good. There's no way the GOP will pick up any of those seats in the safe category, even if it is an open seat, plus I feel Reid is underestimated.

For the tossups, Rothenberg might be being a little too generous to Kirk and Johnson. I would leave them at Tilt D for now.

Tilts R - I agree with putting Toomey here (or tossup), but Rubio's seat should be lean R. The FL Dems ability to screw winnable races up and their lack of a bench.

Leans R - I'll agree here, but the OH, NH and NC ratings could really go either way depending on who runs. If Strickland, Hassan and Hagan run, these shift right to tossups. Otherwise, tilt/lean R.

Favored/Likely R - AZ fits in okay here and I guess I can understand GA because of Isakson's vulnerability to a Tea Party challenge, but why the heck is Grassley here? He's a lifer and not even Vilsack can beat him. Too popular.

Safe R - Some of these are fine for now, but depending on what happens in AK, IN, KY, MO, and UT, could shift into a more vulnerable category.

[Maxwell]

Hagan lost to Thom Tillis. How would she win against someone much less hated than Mr. Tillis?

[LeBron]

Leans R - I'll agree here, but the OH, NH and NC ratings could really go either way depending on who runs. If Strickland, Hassan and Hagan run, these shift right to tossups. Otherwise, tilt/lean R.

Oh please. Have you seen Hagan's favorability ratings?

That's not to say she can't win, but North Carolina does not shift right to a Tossup if Hagan declares. She would need some tailwinds to beat Burr.

Her approvals aren't that good, no but keep in mind she got hit by the wave. She was a great Senator. Obama's approval after the midterms is already going up, and Hagan is likely to rebound as well.

I know polls should not be looked at closely this far out, but Hagan in the polls was also neck and neck with Burr, and is doing better than all other potential Dem challengers.

Hagan lost to Thom Tillis. How would she win against someone much less hated than Mr. Tillis?

I could be wrong on this when the time comes, but 2016 is not going to be a GOP wave like it was for Tillis. More or less, it will be a Democratic year. Also, Burr has pretty awful numbers like Tillis did. He's underwater with a 31% approval, and it doesn't really help when the most recent thing he's known for is his complete disrespect to veterans.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Blunt and Coats are not safe if it turns out to be a good D year.

I was thinking that too, but there'd need to be a strong candidate and I don't know if the Ds have any.

[Miles]

Adam, as much as I am/have been in the tank for Hagan, I admire your optimism, but I'm very skeptical.

[IceSpear]

Hagan lost to Thom Tillis. How would she win against someone much less hated than Mr. Tillis?

Political climate can neutralize and often overpower candidate quality. In fact, Tillis winning is proof of that.

I wouldn't call it a toss up though, at least not right now. All else being equal, Burr will have the advantage. But even in a modestly good year for Dems, he'd be in trouble.

[IceSpear]

Blunt and Coats are not safe if it turns out to be a good D year.

I was thinking that too, but there'd need to be a strong candidate and I don't know if the Ds have any.

What about Kander and Zweifel in Missouri? Bayh and Ellsworth in Indiana?

[Vosem]

I could be wrong on this when the time comes, but 2016 is not going to be a GOP wave like it was for Tillis. More or less, it will be a Democratic year.

I'm not particularly optimistic on the prospects for a Republican wave, but what makes you so confident about the environment 2 years from now?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hagan would need a decent win by Clinton in NC to beat Burr.

[Mr. Smith]

Hagan would need a decent win by Clinton in NC to beat Burr.

If Bowles could lose '04 because of Bush's coattails despite clearly looking better than Burr who was NOT Liddy Dole, then I can see that happening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[The Other Castro]

Is Florida more strongly tossupy than the other tossups?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH is gonna be the tipping pt state along with CO,NV and PA.   AK, NC, FL or OH is the 5th seat that we can use to get the Dems to 51.  But, FL is the easiest to get there.

[ElectionsGuy]

NH is gonna be the tipping pt state along with CO,NV and PA.   AK, NC, FL or OH is the 5th seat that we can use to get the Dems to 51.  But, FL is the easiest to get there.

Alaska is dark blue on your map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Begich and Miller might be running, until we know the status of those, advantage to incumbant party, but still holding out hope.