Iowa or New Hampshire: Which is Hillary more likely to lose? (General Election)

[TDAS04]

What do you think?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

What do you think?

IA is trending R, however the IA women swung to Obama in 2012, so the gender gap helps her there. NH is a bizarre state with unpredictable swings, she could very well lose it against the right candidate.

[Mehmentum]

What do you think?

IA is trending R, however the IA women swung to Obama in 2012, so the gender gap helps her there. NH is a bizarre state with unpredictable swings, she could very well lose it against the right candidate.

How is Iowa trending R?  In presidential elections its actually gotten more Democratic compared to the national popular vote between 2000 and 2012.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Iowa.

I think New Hampshire is fading into lost cause territory for the Republicans, even if they can make it close. The old ultra-conservative New Hampshire of the 80s is long gone, the Republican primary voters who delivered an upset primary victory to Pat Buchanan over Bob Dole in 96 have mostly died off and the GOP base there has been replaced by "moderate" suburbanite Republicans in the Boston exurbs.

In the past two presidential election cycles, Republicans nominated probably the strongest candidates they had for New Hampshire.

John McCain, the 'maverick' 'moderate' independent who upset GWB in the NH primary in 2000 and then again revitalized his sagging 2008 campaign with another upset NH primary win, couldn't crack 45% there in the general election and lost every county. (McCain lost Iowa overall by a similar margin, but Iowa was not a McCain-style state, its Republicans are further to the right and it has fewer "swing voters" as a share of its electorate compared to ultra-swingy NH)

Mitt Romney, a "moderate" fellow New Englander who had a home in New Hampshire and basically threw everything he had into securing a New Hampshire primary victory in 2012 and had very strong campaign infrastructure and organization there already up and running when the general election began, still lost the state by 5 points. (Again a similar margin to Iowa, but Romney was another NH-type Republican, now an IA-type Republican)

Last year, in the midst of the 2014 Republican wave, Democratic NH stood firmly in rejecting Scott Brown while Iowa voted quite decisively for Ernst.

Republicans haven't won a majority of the vote in New Hampshire since 1988. In 2000 George W. Bush only narrowly eked out a 1-point 48-47 plurality victory with Nader taking 4% of the vote. In 2004 New Hampshire was the only state to swing from Bush 2000 to Kerry 2004, even as the national popular vote swung from a 0.52% Democratic victory to a 2.46% Republican victory- while Iowa swung in the opposite direction.

For whatever reason Kelly Ayotte seems to enjoy high personal popularity in the state with her clear overperformance in the 2010 wave, though it remains to be seen how she would perform in a more neutral or Dem year. If Ayotte is the Republican nominee, then she'd likely defeat Hillary in NH.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Iowa will be one of the strongest R trends in 2016. I fully expect Hillary to lose the state. Especially after seeing Join Ernst win.

[Suburbia]

Iowa. But I think Hillary can win Iowa if she faces a lackluster GOP opponent.

[IceSpear]

Almost certainly Iowa.

[Mr. Smith]

New Hampshire,...given that Al Gore lost it, Kerry barely won it and lost Iowa by a smaller margin than Gore lost NH, and Obama was re-elected by a bigger margin in Iowa.

And given Iowa voted for Dukakis, almost voted for Carter by a very very small margin, and voted for Clinton by a higher margin.

Sorry but all the past records point to New Hampshire.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

New Hampshire,...given that Al Gore lost it, Kerry barely won it and lost Iowa by a smaller margin than Gore lost NH, and Obama was re-elected by a bigger margin in Iowa.

And given Iowa voted for Dukakis, almost voted for Carter by a very very small margin, and voted for Clinton by a higher margin.

Sorry but all the past records point to New Hampshire.

Going back to Dukakis and Carter (!) as reference points for predicting 2016 doesn't seem like a very sound foundation for a prediction. West Virginia voted for Carter twice and for Dukakis- and B. Clinton dominated there twice. Doesn't mean Hillary has a prayer there.

In 2008/2012, the NH primary winner, not the Iowa caucus winner, won the Republican nomination and yet Iowa and New Hampshire voted virtually the same in the general election. Had the Iowa caucus winner/GOP base candidate (i.e. Huckabee, Santorum) won the nomination, NH would likely have gone to Obama by a double-digit margin in the general.

Bush's 2000 victory in NH was a fluke, 48-47 over Gore with Nader taking 4% of the vote, and Bush overperformed overall in Upper New England which in 2000 still had some old-school Yankee Republican residual support who recalled the relative moderation of the elder President Bush. Gore only won Vermont by just under 10 points, with Nader taking 7%, but still Bush got 41% there. In 2004, after GWB had shown his true colors, that region saw the strongest swings against the clearly rapidly right-wing-trending party and its neocon warmongering foreign policy that led to the Iraq War disaster, even as the rest of the country, including Iowa (which flipped parties to the GOP) swung to Bush.

[Xing]

Iowa. I don't see Hillary losing New Hampshire unless she's having a very bad night. Iowa could go either way, IMO. The recent senate results aren't a good sign for Democrats, but one election alone doesn't make a trend.

[Clermont County GOPer]

Iowa

[free my dawg]

Iowa. Literally every Democrat in power in NH is #ready.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa. Maybe I'm extrapolating too much from 2014, but NH seems to be blending in more with New England, just more evenly divided than other states.

[Devils30]

More likely to lose IA. NH has been very friendly to the Clinton's historically as well.

[Intell]

Probably Iowa, but it depends on who is running against her.

[IceSpear]

Let's also remember that Iowa was the state that kneecapped Hillary in 2008, while New Hampshire was the one that brought her back to life.

[JRP1994]

Against Paul or Christie: New Hampshire
Against anyone else: Iowa

[Prince of Salem]

Against Paul or Christie: New Hampshire
Against anyone else: Iowa

[RFayette]

Iowa.  We elected *****ing Joni Ernst.