HYPO: Defeated Senators from 2014 run in 2012
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  HYPO: Defeated Senators from 2014 run in 2012
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Author Topic: HYPO: Defeated Senators from 2014 run in 2012  (Read 665 times)
Talleyrand
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« on: January 10, 2015, 09:12:15 PM »

So let's just pretend that the incumbent Senators up for election in 2014 had (somehow) been up for re-election in 2012 instead. What would change?

Hagan- Wins by about 3-4 points
Udall- Wins by 5-10 points
Begich- Wins by around 2-3 points

Pryor- Still loses by dougle digits
Landrieu- Comes closer to avoiding a runoff in the first round (with around 46%), but ultimately goes down about 7-8 points in a runoff.

Thoughts?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2015, 09:17:45 PM »

Begich - same result, did you see the turnout this year! Plus AK is isolated in terms of national trends (it was the only state to swing significantly to Obama when other states didn't, for example)
Udall - wins by 3-6 points
Hagan - wins by 2-4 points
Pryor - still loses massively
Landrieu - loses, but by single digits.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2015, 10:39:55 PM »

What ElectionsGuy said.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2015, 11:04:07 PM »

Plus AK is isolated in terms of national trends (it was the only state to swing significantly to Obama when other states didn't, for example)

AK's swing was due to Palin no longer being on the ticket. Before McCain tapped her, polls were showing Alaska as a tossup in 2008. If she hadn't been on the ballot Alaska would have almost assuredly been within single digits and then swung against Obama in 2012.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2015, 11:12:48 PM »

AK: Same result, Begich only barely won it against a felon
AR: Pryor loses by 9 points
CO: Udall wins by 2 points, because he still ran a horrible campaign


LA: Landrieu wins primary with 48%, but loses the run-off by 5 points
NC: Hagan wins by 3-5 points

And while I'm at it, even though he won:

VA: Warner wins by 7-9 points, not by the plurality he did.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2015, 11:46:18 PM »

VA: Warner wins by 7-9 points, not by the plurality he did.

most polls had Warner winning 10-15 percent this year and with regular turnout, he would have
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JMT
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2015, 09:34:10 PM »

Hagan: Wins by 3 to 5 points. She got ousted by the Republican wave this year, she ran a great campaign and Tillis is flawed. She would have won in 2012
Udall: Wins by 1-2% (Udall wasn't prepared to run in a competitive race, Gardner caught him by surprise. So Udall barely holds on)
Begich: still loses, maybe the margin is slightly closer. He barely won in 2008.
Pryor: still loses by double digits
Landrieu: gets closer to 50% in the first ballot, but still loses to Cassidy by roughly the same margin in the runoff as she did in 2014
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2015, 09:54:42 PM »

I suspect Landrieu loses by a fairly similar margin in the run-off. The President isn't on the ballot either way, so that cancels out the "Presidential turnout" argument.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2015, 10:00:57 PM »

AK: Same result, Begich only barely won it against a felon
Stevens was actually cleared on those charges.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2015, 10:11:10 PM »


The point is that at the time, it appeared that Stevens was a felon. Only barely beating a felon doesn't speak that well to your skill as a candidate.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2015, 10:17:11 PM »

Hagan probably would've won by about 6 points, considering how much she overperformed Obama in 2008.

Colorado is harder to tell, since Udall might've run on more than just abortion if he had run in 2012, and might've touted Obama's record. Either way, I'd say that he would've won, probably by at least 3 or 4.

I actually think Begich would've narrowly won. True, Obama wouldn't have helped him much, but consider the fact that Tester and Heitkamp also won in states Obama lost by double digits. I'd say Begich by 1 or 2.

Pryor would still have gone down, though by more like 7 or 8 points.

Landrieu would've gotten more like 46 or 47 percent in the general election, but probably still would've lost the runoff by 6 or so.

I know this is about defeated incumbent senators, but I think the senate race in Iowa would've gone down MUCH differently...
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