Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Midterm elections in June 7th 2015 for Mexico for the Lower House. 

Also I believe there will be governor races for

Baja California Sur (current PAN)
Campeche (Current PRI)
Colima (Current PRI)
Guerrero (Current PRD)
Hidalgo (Current PRI)
Michoacán (Current PRI) - not sure about this one as it the PRI guy that won back in 2011 had to resign after a scandal where he is associated with a crime cartel so this might be a bye-election for governor
Nuevo León (Current PRI)
Querétaro (Current PRI)
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI)
Sonora (Current PAN)

Looks like this time independent candidates will be allowed due to change in electoral laws as well as the chance for re-election. 

I have to expect PRI to lose ground, most likely more to PRD than to PAN.  Anyone with any info on polls or predictions on how these elections will go ?
 

[jaichind]

http://www.mherrera.org/elections.html

seems to indicate that the election is June 7th 2015.  I agree historically the vote always seems to be in the first week of July but perhaps that got changed as part of the election law changes. 

[jaichind]

BTW, the law-and-order situation in Guerrero is so bad it is not clear they can actually hold elections.  Parts of Michoacán I think is in the same situation.

[seb_pard]

According to Wikipedia in spanish, there was an election reform and within the changes one was that now the election day is the first sunday of June.

[politicus]

Date is mentioned on INE.

http://www.ine.mx/archivos2/portal/Elecciones/PEF/2014-2015/index.html

[ag]

http://www.mherrera.org/elections.html

seems to indicate that the election is June 7th 2015.  I agree historically the vote always seems to be in the first week of July but perhaps that got changed as part of the election law changes. 

Yes, it did. Election officials are very nervous about voting with schools in session.

[ag]

Michoacan governor may have had many reasons to resign, but the main one is that he is truly - and, it seems, desperately - sick. He did spen much of his term on leave, I believe had a liver transplant.

[jaichind]

PRI will be in trouble given the approval ratings of Nieto but it seems PRD is in even bigger trouble because of the various events in Guerrero.  It seems Cárdenas has left PRD which he founded and AMLO has formed his own separate party, MORENA.  It also seems to me that it is not clear PAN can benefit from all this.  The various reforms involving PEMEX which I think is logical on the long run is not that popular and PAN will share the blame for this in the June elections.   

[ag]

PRI will be in trouble given the approval ratings of Nieto but it seems PRD is in even bigger trouble because of the various events in Guerrero.  It seems Cárdenas has left PRD which he founded and AMLO has formed his own separate party, MORENA.  It also seems to me that it is not clear PAN can benefit from all this.  The various reforms involving PEMEX which I think is logical on the long run is not that popular and PAN will share the blame for this in the June elections.   

Pemex reform has little to do with PAN - it is designed, pushed for and implemented by PRI. PAN played and is playing a very secondary role pretty much only throug congressional support, and is not involved in any execution. The bigger problem is distinct smell of corruption emanating from extremely uninspiring leadership. They have gotten rid of most popular and/or clean faces in the party - the PR lists for congress look ugly. Now, that corruption smell is, definitely, coming stronger from PRI, and PRD has to deal with an even stronger narco flavor, but the current PAN leadership is not the sort that wins any popular votes.

Morena is to be watched. It is, unusually for Mexico, a purely personalist party, with (which strongly distinguishes it from PRD) no intraparty democracy or discussion. Its sole reason for existence is AMLO, its candidates are imposed by him, but that also means much better internal cohesion and control. It might be the future face of Mexio's national socialism.

[ag]

So, a few words on the election.

Firstly, let us welcome the three new political parties.

MORENA. The National Renewal Movement, with the wonderful abbreviation, which means something like "BLACKY". A typical Mexican national socialist faction, with the distinction of being a peronal vehicle of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Tired of having to deal with factions in the notoriously factional PRD, or else having to talk nicely to the owners of the PT and/or MC, AMLO created his own movement, taking away most of his loyalists (he did leave a few back in PRD so that he still has some impact on the tribal warfare within that party - but these will, probably, jump ship pretty soon) . From now on, AMLO is free to nominate his own for any office with no internal opposition from any quarter. We need to see how much of the PRD machine it will be able to capture, but, at least, it is pretty clear that it will get a nice chunk of the reliable national socialist vote. As long as AMLO is around, this one will be around. What is less clear is what will happen to the other forces in the same camp. PRD (now dominated by the "New Left" or the "Chuchos" faction) will be badly hit, but it has enough of its machine left that its survival, for the moment, is not an issue. PT, and, especially, MC have a reason to worry. If I had to bet, MC will be out.

Humanist party (PH). A somewhat anodyne grouping of the minor unionists. A partial reincarnation of the "peasant" wing of the "social democratic and peasant" party of a few years back. Should be for sale, but I have not, yet, figured out, whom it is supposed to be sold to.

Social Encounter Party (PES). A minor Baja California state party that managed to obtain the federal register this time. I have no clue why and what for. Chances are, this one is entirely ephemeral.

Keep in mind, besides many other electoral law changes, they also increased the party survival threshold to 3%. And this is a midterm, so only the lower house of Congress is elected. So each party needs to get 3% on that one vote to survive.  Tough order.

Independents, judging by the role they have played in the few states where they had been allowed in recent years, will be entirely inconsequential.

[Famous Mortimer]

What does "New Left" mean in this context? What is the ideological inclination of the current PRD?

Also, you're saying AMLO's party is definitely going to dwarf the PRD?

[jaichind]

Pemex reform has little to do with PAN - it is designed, pushed for and implemented by PRI. PAN played and is playing a very secondary role pretty much only throug congressional support, and is not involved in any execution. The bigger problem is distinct smell of corruption emanating from extremely uninspiring leadership. They have gotten rid of most popular and/or clean faces in the party - the PR lists for congress look ugly. Now, that corruption smell is, definitely, coming stronger from PRI, and PRD has to deal with an even stronger narco flavor, but the current PAN leadership is not the sort that wins any popular votes.

Morena is to be watched. It is, unusually for Mexico, a purely personalist party, with (which strongly distinguishes it from PRD) no intraparty democracy or discussion. Its sole reason for existence is AMLO, its candidates are imposed by him, but that also means much better internal cohesion and control. It might be the future face of Mexio's national socialism.

Thanks for clearing up the PAN role in Pemex reforms.  I always thought that Pemex reforms were on the PAN agenda but could not get it done with PRI in the opposition.  

As for Morena I assume one of the reasons is for AMLO have a clear run in 2018.  I am sure he hoped that bailing out on PRD given the Guerrero fiasco and try to disassociate  himself from the PRD and Guerrero will help.  Of course when 2018 comes around and AMLO insist on running the PRI and PAN will drag out photos of him and the Iguala mayor and with the governor of Guerrero on the campaign trail in 2012.

[ag]

What does "New Left" mean in this context?

Nueva Izquierda. A name of one of the traditional PRD "tribes". Otherwise they are known as "The Chuchos". They got the control of the party machinery, at least in the center.

What is the ideological inclination of the current PRD?

Same as always, more or less. Broadly traditional Mexican national socialist. Defend the energy, etc. The ideological disagreements do not play a major role here. It is the tribal allegiance

Also, you're saying AMLO's party is definitely going to dwarf the PRD?

Might. Especially now that Cardenas left the party. But machinery is machinery, and the Chuchos are no babies. But it will be a major split.

[ag]

Thanks for clearing up the PAN role in Pemex reforms.  I always thought that Pemex reforms were on the PAN agenda but could not get it done with PRI in the opposition.  

PAN always wanted to do it, but never had a chance. Not only because PRI was in opposition, but also because they never quite knew how to monetize it for personal benefit. PRI people know and are eager. And, you know, money trumps even the religious considerations, like the sanctity of Mexican national oil.

As for Morena I assume one of the reasons is for AMLO have a clear run in 2018.  I am sure he hoped that bailing out on PRD given the Guerrero fiasco and try to disassociate  himself from the PRD and Guerrero will help.  Of course when 2018 comes around and AMLO insist on running the PRI and PAN will drag out photos of him and the Iguala mayor and with the governor of Guerrero on the campaign trail in 2012.

He was building up MORENA long before Iguala. The real reason is that in the past he needed someone else´s agreement to get the nomination: PRD is a big tribal federation, with some of the tribes hating him with passion, and only a few of them naturally allied to him; and PT/MC are under the control of their leader-owners. So, he needed to pay some obeisance to the MC/PT little strongmen to get those lines (in exchange for guaranteeing their register) and then use the fact that he would be on ballot anyway to scare out the PRD rivals. Now he has a party line of his own, he will be on the ballot as long as he is alive (he has had a heart attack recently). Everybody knows this now, three years ahead of time, so every "leftist" potential candidate knows that he will be splitting the votes with AMLO: that is, s/he will have no chance.

But besides the clear road to nomination, now he has something else: the national party line which he fully controls. Before he had to offer the PT/MC folk to support some of their candidates. He also had his guys participate in the internal PRD nomination process. Also, the PT/MC owners played the same game within the PRD, building alliances - not always with him.  Sometimes he won, sometimes he lost, but, in any case, he never had an absolute control over nominations. Now he has it. He can nominate his pet turtle to run for Governor of Nayarit if he so likes: and this being the AMLO turtle it will get some votes, the prospect of which may, actually, force the other "leftist" parties nominate it as well.

[Zanas]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

[politicus]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Yeah, nationalist socialist is better. Describing a left wing party with the other label is too trollish.

[jaichind]

For Michoacán governor it seems PRI is going with Orihuela as a compromise candidate for the various PRI factions.  Looks like PAN will go with former PAN president Calderón's sister Luisa Calderón who lost last time around.  I have yet to find any polls but I am sure Calderón must be ahead due to name recognition and the pathetic record of PRI and PRD brand right now.  Of course there might not even be an election in  Michoacán.

[jaichind]

I wonder this time around will PAN and PRD form tactical alliances to stop PRI.  Most likely not is my guess.  Also will MORENA nominate candidates for governor, especially in places like Guerrero ?  Of course that assumes there will even be elections held. 

[ag]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Mexican political spectrum has always gone from national socialism (fascism) on the left to Christian socialism on the right. Mussolini would fit very well into traditional PRI or PRD ideologically. I do not see why not the use precise description.

[Famous Mortimer]

lol

[ag]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Yeah, nationalist socialist is better. Describing a left wing party with the other label is too trollish.

There was never a Mussolini or Hitler in Latin America to take the local fascism right. It stayed. It is not that there is no other left anywhere in Latin America: arguably, this does not apply to Chile or Uruguay. But for corporativist statist hard nationalist antidemocratic parties of the peronista/priista style - why invent terminology, when the traditional one fits like a glove?

[ag]

lol

It is, actually, not funny. Especially, when we have AMLO and his "subtly" named MORENA to deal with.

[Zanas]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Yeah, nationalist socialist is better. Describing a left wing party with the other label is too trollish.

There was never a Mussolini or Hitler in Latin America to take the local fascism right. It stayed. It is not that there is no other left anywhere in Latin America: arguably, this does not apply to Chile or Uruguay. But for corporativist statist hard nationalist antidemocratic parties of the peronista/priista style - why invent terminology, when the traditional one fits like a glove?

National socialism has been quite strongly identified to, and only to, the Nazi movement in Germany between 1923 and 1945. Even the various small groups that claim to be heirs to that are called "Neo-nazis", and not "national socialists" per se. Some terminologies are not in use after they have been so much identified with one particular movement or situation. You cannot refer to any annexion of a country by another as an Anschluss. Same goes for "national socialism".

Plus, I get from your posts that you are dogmatically using the terminology whereas it's not even commonly in use in Mexico. So, I won't convince you to stop, but it's not an honest practice, not to mention not the most clarifying for foreigners who do not know Mexican politics very well.

I probably agree on a lot of your characterizations of PRI, I thought PRD was a bit better but maybe it's not, but to a foreigner ranking them as "national socialists" will inevitably make them think they organize massive 1,000,000 member rallies with a funny logo on an armband in stadiums across the country on a monthly basis...

[ag]

National socialism has been quite strongly identified to, and only to, the Nazi movement in Germany between 1923 and 1945.

Ok, I agree, I will just say "fascist" from now on. More precise - as it indicates comparison with the Mussolini Italy - the comparison that is most apt - and does not involve mass murder. Would you be fine with that?

[ag]

to a foreigner ranking them as "national socialists" will inevitably make them think they organize massive 1,000,000 member rallies with a funny logo on an armband in stadiums across the country on a monthly basis...

Well, except for the armband and the stadium (these, generally, have to be used for football in Mexico), that sounds about right