Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

Too early, but MC seems to be picking up the mayoralty of Guadalajara - and with strong coattails at the congressional level.

[jaichind]

With 9.39% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         117
PAN                   68
PRD-PT              20
PRI                    20
Morena              19
MC                    14
PRD                    5
PANAL                2
PES                    1
Ind                     1

Since in some places only dozens of votes are counted these numbers will jump around

Vote share

PAN          20.75
PRI           27.10
PRD            7.42
PVEM          7.90
PT               3.13
MC              5.37
PANAL         4.42
Morena      10.41
PH              2.33
PES            4.03
Ind             0.96
Other          0.26
Null            5.85

PRI-PVEM slide continues.  MC doing very well.  How long can PES stay above 3%?

[jaichind]

With 10.66% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         124
PAN                   69
PRD-PT              21
PRI                    20
Morena              19
MC                    14
PRD                    4
PANAL                1
PES                    1
Ind                     1


Vote share

PAN          20.91
PRI           26.94
PRD            7.60
PVEM          7.74
PT               3.09
MC              5.53
PANAL         4.39
Morena      10.36
PH              2.35
PES            4.03
Ind             0.92
Other          0.26
Null            5.81

[jaichind]

PES is doing very well in HIDALGO for some reason.  Same thing for MC in JALISCO.

[ag]

PES is doing very well in HIDALGO for some reason.  Same thing for MC in JALISCO.

Coattails from popular municipal candidates, at least in Jalisco.

[jaichind]

Morena ahead in DF.  Also PAN seems to be doing well in DF.  It seems PAN is able to take advantage of the Left parties split where as PRI-PVEM is not, given its own split in some seats.

[ag]

PT is dropping towards the 3% threshold. May not be a reason for it to exist alongside the Morena.

[jaichind]

With 12.76% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         130
PAN                   70
PRD-PT              21
PRI                    21
Morena              19
MC                    14
PRD                    4
PANAL                1
PES                    1
Ind                     1


Vote share

PAN          20.95
PRI           26.74
PRD            7.89
PVEM          7.66
PT               3.02
MC              5.73
PANAL         4.33
Morena      10.34
PH              2.37
PES            4.03
Ind             0.88
Other          0.25
Null            5.72

PT at threat of falling below 3.02.  MC seems safe to cross 3%.  PES vote share still holding up.  

[jaichind]

With 14.28% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         132
PAN                   69
PRD-PT              23
PRI                    20
Morena              19
MC                    13
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
PES                    1
Ind                     1


Vote share

PAN          21.05
PRI           26.63
PRD            8.07
PVEM          7.54
PT               2.99
MC              5.83
PANAL         4.30
Morena      10.33
PH              2.38
PES            4.01
Ind             0.87
Other          0.25
Null            5.69

PT below 3%.  PRI-PVEM still dropping.  MC still rising.

[jaichind]

Enough votes has come in for me to be pretty sure El Bronco will win in NL and by a large margin.  Same with PRI winning Guerrero.

[jaichind]

Looks like PRD should win Michoacán governor race. 

[jaichind]

With 15.75% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         133
PAN                   72
PRD-PT              22
PRI                    22
Morena              18
MC                    14
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          21.13
PRI           26.57
PRD            8.24
PVEM          7.41
PT               2.97
MC              5.94
PANAL         4.28
Morena      10.30
PH              2.38
PES            4.00
Ind             0.85
Other          0.25
Null            5.62

[ag]

PT is not doing good.

[jaichind]

Its getting late so I am going off to bed.  It seems PRI-PVEM is not doing as well as exit polls in terms of vote share but that could turn around.  Also if PT, PES and PH all fall below 3% but get significant number of votes along with a large null vote, the low PRI-PVEM vote share plus 42% rule could still give it close to majority.  I assume the 42% rule is applied after they stripe out the vote shares of nulls and parties that did not make it past 3%.  It would be interesting to find out tomorrow morning if PES made it past 3%.

[ag]

In DF borough mayor elections PAN seems to be safely ahead in Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, and barely ahead in Cuajimalpa (over PRI). PRI is, for the moment, ahead in the semi-rural Magdalena Contreras (barely) and rural Milpa Alta. There is a four-way race in Alvaro Obregon, but PRD/PT are ahead for the moment. PRD is also ahead in Coyoacan, Gustavo Madero, Iztacalco, Iztapalapa and Venustiano Carranza, while Morena leads in Azcapotzalco, Tlalpan, Tlahuac, Xochimilco and Cuauhtemoc.

[ag]

With 17.34% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are

PAN          21.17
PRI           26.48
PRD            8.48
PVEM          7.35
PT               2.96
MC              6.05
PANAL         4.24
Morena      10.27
PH              2.39
PES            3.99
Ind             0.84
write-ins     0.24
Null            5.58

[ag]

In the Nuevo Leon race, so far, PRI is in third!

With 26.52% of precincts reporting

El Bronco 49.24%
PAN 23.91%
PRI+ 22.33%

[ag]

According to the preps, PAN looks reasonably ahead for Queretaro governor, slight PRI+ advantage for Colima and SLP governors, PRI is winning Campeche (nobody's surprise), PRD+ is winning Michoaan, while PRI+ is ahead in Guerrero, it seems. PRI is ahead in Sonora and PAN in BCS, but both on very few precincts reporting,

[ag]

With 20.10% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are

PAN          21.24
PRI           26.45
PRD            8.59
PVEM          7.34
PT               2.91
MC              6.13
PANAL         4.17
Morena      10.15
PH              2.40
PES            3.95
Ind             0.84
write-ins     0.25
Null            5.52

[ag]

INE has announced the results of a rapid count (they randomly select a - hopefully - representative sample of precincts and try to estimate results based on that). According to them it will be

PRI 196 to 203 seats
PAN 105 to 116 seats
PRD 51 to 60 seats
PVEM 41 to 48 seats
Morena 34 to 40 seats
MC 24 to 29 seats
Panal 9 to 12 seats
PES 8 to 10 seats
Independets - 1
PH 0 to 1 seats (on FPTP)
PT seems out

So, PRI/PVEM majority is on the outer range of possibilities. Congratulations, PES! Condolences PT.

[ag]

With 25.11% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are:

PAN          21.22
PRI           26.58
PRD            9.04
PVEM          7.11
PT               2.86
MC              6.16
PANAL         4.10
Morena      10.08
PH              2.40
PES            3.92
Ind             0.81
write-ins     0.24
Null            5.43

[ag]

Well, going to bed.

With 28.61% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are:

PAN          21.19
PRI           26.65
PRD            9.30
PVEM          6.96
PT               2.86
MC              6.14
PANAL         4.06
Morena      10.05
PH              2.40
PES            3.92
Ind             0.79
write-ins     0.23
Null            5.38

[jaichind]

With 62.5% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         153
PAN                   60
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    24
Morena              14
MC                    12
PRD                    6
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.91
PRI           27.67
PRD          10.32
PVEM          6.72
PT               2.82
MC              6.13
PANAL         3.82
Morena        9.47
PH              2.33
PES            3.71
Ind             0.72
Other          0.21
Null            5.08

[jaichind]

In NL it seems like a landslide.

El Bronco 49
PRI          23.4
PAN         22.6

[jaichind]

So far FPTP leades has PRI-PVEM total at 178 which is only 1 above 2012.  PRN leads has 61 which is 8 above 2012.  This means that despite the split of the Left, the collective FPTP losses by Left Parties is not that large when the rule of thumb should be that a 3 way split of the Left (PRD-PT, Morena, MC) should be total wipe out.